AFL Round 21 – Collingwood vs Western Bulldogs Match Preview.

As the Collingwood Football Club meanders towards the end of yet another disappointing season it should be no shock that their form is still fluctuating. Last week against Richmond, a club that has become a modern day target of parody and ridicule, the Magpies themselves became the joke when they gave up a win in very easy fashion. It looked as if the Pies would redeem themselves late in the final term as they hit the front but they then rolled over and let the struggling Tigers record a much needed win. It was just the most recent forgettable chapter in what is becoming a familiar pattern year on year. Collingwood hasn’t been a good team for 4 seasons now, and while there is hope for the future this season is a write off, once again.

There’s still 3 games to be played though, and on Friday night the Pies will travel a few kilometers down the road to be hosted by the Western Bulldogs at Etihad Stadium. The Dogs are the buzz team of the AFL right now, the media love them, and so apparently do all the neutral fans. I say apparently because it seems as if there’s a fallacy that Dogs are everyone’s second team. I’m not going to speak for anyone else but they are far from that for me. These two have met once already this season and in that game the Magpies took the game right up to the favoured Dogs at the MCG before a stack of in game injuries cost the Pies any chance of winning. The Bulldogs recorded a 21 point win in a low scoring game as they continued to push for a top 4 spot. They are still an outside chance of getting one of those key double chance finals positions, but with a rather ironic (at least in Pies fans eyes) rash of injuries of late these Dogs may have to settle for a home elimination final.

COLLINGWOOD PREVIEW

Is it over yet? That’s the question most Magpie fans are asking, and unfortunately it’s not. There’s still these 3 now meaningless games to play and the Pies players will have to find a way to self motivate themselves for this game. The Dogs are a defensive beast and with the current formation and production of an injury plagued Pies forward line this could get ugly. There is hope however, the Bulldogs do have a long injury list, maybe even longer and more talented than the Pies. Collingwood does have some players to call upon though with the VFL side yet again winning, this time their 10^th win in a row. It’s remarkable that with all the injuries and problems that the senior side is having that the VFL Magpies are still winning. Tyson Goldsack was the standout in the latest win, and if he isn’t included in the seniors this week something more sinister is going on there. Youngsters Tom Phillips and Jordan De Goey were also great in the reserves win and will come under heavy consideration to return to the seniors. There may be good news on the injury front too with Darcy Moore pushing to return after missing one week and captain Scott Pendlebury adamant that he won’t be left out despite an ankle injury sustained late against Richmond.

So the Pies will field a side of sorts against the Dogs, but as we’ve come to expect with this Magpies team it’s all about what level of effort they will bring to game day. If they bring their best, like they did against the Dogs the first time, they may well pull of an upset win. Anything less of an effort though and this could get ugly, well uglier for the men in black and white.

WESTERN BULLDOGS PREVIEW

The Western Bulldogs were one of the most talked about teams coming into season 2016 and they haven’t disappointed. Even with a recent run of extreme injuries they still sit in 7^th spot with a 13-6 win/loss record. The Dogs injury problems did seem like they were going to derail their season, with back to back losses against Geelong and St Kilda, but a fighting 14 point win over North Melbourne last week has them back on track. With three very winnable games left (Pies, Bombers, Dockers) these Bulldogs still think they can finish top 4.

The Western Bulldogs team defense is remarkable really. Coming into this season they were thought of as a primarily attacking team who basically outscored sides into submission. But this season it’s been completely different, with the Dogs conceding the third least amount of total points, with only the Cats and Swans better than them. It starts with the backline too, and Dale Morris is still leading this group after all these years. He acts as not only a leader of the defense but also as an on field coach, and allows the likes of Hamling, Roberts, Biggs, Johannisen and Wood to provide adequate rebounding. This week the Dogs backline will face off against one of the more listless forward lines going around, and that’s if Darcy Moore gets up. If he doesn’t it’s almost certainly the worst forward line in the AFL at the moment. Obviously the Pies forward line has been hit hard by injuries but the replacements aren’t standing up at all and the Bulldogs should dominate in this area.

The Bulldogs midfield has some star names in it, yet it doesn’t exactly dominate teams on a weekly basis. The Dogs are in the middle of the pack for contested possessions and clearances but if they can get that ball to the outside they do remarkable damage to the opposition. They do have a high rate of inside forward 50 entries showing just how effective they are if you give them any time at all outside the packs. The loss of Mitch Wallis obviously hurts their midfield brigade but with Bontempelli and Liberatore leading the clearance count, they can match it with a Pies midfield that is struggling. The one area the Dogs may struggle is in the ruck this week, with Brodie Grundy starting to show his potential and dominating games like a player beyond his limited age and experience. This is where Collingwood need to dominate if they stand any chance at all.

The Dogs forward line has been the topic that is usually brought up when speaking about this team’s future. The obvious target of debate is Tom Boyd, who the Bulldogs pulled away from GWS in a mega trade (and a mega contract). Boyd is only know starting to show what he is capable of but it will still be a few years before a definitive result of this trade will be known. They do struggle to put the score on the board though, with the worst inside 50 conversion rate of the top 8 sides by a long way. In fact they are the only top 8 side not ranked in the top half of the league for total points scored this season. They rely on a spread of goals to score with 4 scoring options standing out, Bontempelli, Redpath, Dickson and Stringer. The good news of the Bulldogs however is the Pies backline is as inconsistent as other areas of their game, and at Etihad allowed North Melbourne to score 124 points only a few weeks back.

After a strong win last week the Western Bulldogs will go into this game knowing nothing but a win will keep them in top 4 contention. Realistically they have to win out from here on and hope the sides above them lose a few games. For this game against the Pies they are unlikely to make too many changes with Matt Suckling the most likely inclusion if he overcomes his most recent injury setback. That is a positive though, as for the previous few weeks they’ve lost players due to injuries in decent numbers, and quality. The Dogs should win this game if they have any ambitions of doing damage in the finals.

TIP

Collingwood will go into this game as clear underdogs, and that’s not a shock given their recent form. The one advantage Collingwood may have this week is they run into a team that has been hit bu injuries just as hard as them. A lot may depend on final selection, with Pendlebury, Moore, Smith and Suckling all needing to pass fitness tests to play. If the Pies can get their captain and star young forward on the park they just may be able to outscore this defensively minded Dogs outfit.

MAGPIES BY 1 POINT

AFL Round 21 – Collingwood vs Richmond Match Preview.

They are all but gone, “they” being the finals chances of the Collingwood football club for season 2015. Champion Data, the well known AFL statistics service, ranks Collingwood’s chances of playing finals at only 2% now. This has all come about after an extraordinary run that has seen the Magpies lose 7 of their last 8 games. Somehow the Pies managed to turn an 8-3 win/loss record into a 9-10 record. Some have compared this season to last year when the Pies had the same downfall after the first half of the season. Whether that’s fair or not this Collingwood side has to get better if it’s going to play finals and contend inn the future.

Onto round 21, and this Saturday the Magpies come up against a side that will almost certainly play finals, Richmond. The Tigers have been able to do what the Pies haven’t, winning consistently enough to maintain their position in the top 8. They’ve had some losses along the way, in fact they’ve swapped wins and losses the last 5 weeks but barring a disaster Richmond will play finals for the second season in a row.

The two sides met earlier on in the season and it was one of the games of the year as the Tigers came from behind to win by 5 points. Since that game the Tigers have risen up the ladder after a tough start while the Pies have been in free fall. The Tigers still need one win to lock up a finals spot and they’d love to notch up that win against the Pies this Saturday.

PREVIOUS FORM

In terms of effort and resilience Collingwood’s efforts in the last eight weeks have actually been quite good, barring maybe the loss to the Demons. Last week’s loss to Sydney summed up the second half of the year for the Pies really, leading at times in the last quarter yet unable to secure the win when it mattered. The same occurred when the Pies faced other top teams like Hawthorn, Fremantle and the Western Bulldogs. Some have put it down to a lack of experience under extreme pressure and while Collingwood has fielded one of the youngest sides this season, losing 7 out of 8 games is inexcusable. The positives have been the form of the ever reliable Dane Swan and a group of youngsters that have shown there is future hope for the Pies.

Richmond’s form has been a lot better then the Pies, that’s for sure. Although they’ve alternated wins and losses for the last 5 weeks (due for a loss this week if that pattern continues) the win over Hawthorn just two weeks ago shows how good they can be. In fact since these two sides faced off in round 7 the Tigers have only lost 3 games, and those 3 losses all came against probable finalists. After one of their biggest losses of the week over in Adelaide the Tigers came home to the MCG last week and disposed of the struggling Gold Coast Suns by 83 in a dominance performance. There were some worrying signs thought with only 9 tackles laid by the entire Richmond side in the first half. Their second half was much better though and they go into this game as clear favourites.

COLLINGWOOD PREVIEW

What do we make of Collingwood’s 2015 season? It started so well with eight wins in the first eleven games but just like last season it has fallen apart after the mid season bye. The difference between last season and 2015 is the manner in which the Pies have been losing though. Captain Scott Pendlebury stated that he believed the club had improved simply because they were no longer consistently losing games by big margins. The Magpies percentage shows that too, with the Pies currently having a top 8 ranked defense and attack. It does bode well for the future but at the moment this season will be a second consecutive failure for Collingwood. Of course there have been positives though and leading into this game versus the Tigers may of those positives will be on display. Dane Swan has returned to his All Australian form of years past and the youngsters are starting to come through also. The likes of Marsh, Langdon, De Goey, Moore, Maynard, Scharenberg, Broomhead, Ramsay, Frost, Adams and Crisp have all got extra games under their belt. That’s where the improvement will come from for the Pies next season and beyond but they will also have to be active in the draft and trade periods.

There’s still three games to be played for the Magpies in season 2015 though and it starts against the Tigers on Saturday. The Pies almost defeated Richmond the first time around and if anything Collingwood has a stronger team in comparison now. At selection Nathan Brown unfortunately won’t be available after being suspended for one game for a rather clumsy hit on Luke Parker in last weeks’ loss. His replacement will come from the VFL who themselves had a tough loss last weekend. Among those pushing for selection out of the VFL Pies team are Goldsack, Scharenberg, Young, Witts, Karnezis and Kennedy. There is likely to be 2-3 changes with several of those VFL performances warranting selection. Something has to improve up forward though for Collingwood to win a game like this as they’ve only managed to kick 40 goals and 77 behinds in their previous few losses. That’s a disastrous accuracy rate and one that will see them lose again if they don’t remedy it fast.

 

OPPOSITION ANALYSIS

After starting the season slower then what was to be expected Richmond has developed into one of the most dangerous teams to play in the competition, outside of the premiership contenders of course. At one stage there it looked as if the Tigers were going to challenge for a top 4 spot but recent losses to Fremantle and Adelaide have put pay to that. The club would be impressed with the way their team has managed to dispose of the lesser teams this year and with a few wins over top sides the signs for the future are good. It’s all about now though for this Richmond side and to maintain even the slightest hope of finishing in the top 4 they have to win their final 3 home and away games.

The Richmond midfield based on statistics looks like one of the weaker central cores in the AFL. They rank in the bottom 6 for clearances and hitouts and not much higher for contested possessions. Yet somehow they seem to lift when they have to and have a huge influence on games in small periods. The first game against the Pies is a good example with Richmond dominating the contests in the final quarter to come from behind and win. Of course there’s some big names in the middle with Deledio, Martin and Cotchin leading the way. Ivan Maric is a reliable ruckman who tries his hardest all week but he should dominate against a young Magpies rucking core. Richmond had a clear advantage in the clearances versus the young and weakened Suns last week and will be looking to do with same up against a Pies midfield that lacks depth.

Richmond’s backline is almost certainly their area of strength which is a huge improvement on where it was a few years back. The Tigers rank 4^th for least points conceded with only the Hawks, Eagles and Dockers ahead of them, arguably the three best teams in the competition. It’s been through a mixture of experience (Chaplin, Newman, Houli, Rance) and youth (Ellis, Vlastuin, Batchelor) that the Tigers have improved their backline. Rance is likely to be in the All Australian team and he now has a very solid defensive grouping around him. Of course it’s helped by a midfield and forward line that has a defensive approach to the game, one that coach Damien Hardwick has no doubt instilled in them. On paper they should have one of their biggest tests of the season against the Collingwood forward line but there’s something wrong up forward for the Pies. It would shock many if the Pies were able to dominate this strong Richmond backline.

As has been the way for a few seasons now the Tigers forward line revolves around one play, that being the enigmatic Jack Riewoldt. The Coleman medalist of years past has had another strong year and is on target to kick over 60 goals if you include probable finals games. The problem for Richmond is who is next in the order? Tyrone Vickery, Liam McBean and Shaun Hampson have all been tried in that secondary tall forward position yet they keep coming back to the unreliable Vickery. After Jack’s 46 goals the next best goal kicker at the club is Deledio with 20, with only Vickery and Llyod averaging more then a goal a game outside of the top 2. Of course Richmond then place a large reliance on their midfield to chip in with goals and for the most part it has worked, especially against the weaker teams. If this Tigers outfit wants to be a genuine contender though this is the area of the ground that needs the most improvement. Luckily for them the Pies have a weakened and inexperienced backline this week. Nathan Brown’s absence will be greatly missed and with a number of youngsters being trialled down back the Tigers should be able to put a score on the board here.

This game is mightily important for Richmond. Despite those two recent losses their top four hopes aren’t dead even if they are now unlikely to earn a double chance. They will be hoping Shane Edwards recovers from a recent injury in time for Saturday although he missed the first game between these two and they still won. Others to be considered will be McBean, Dea and Hampson in an attempt to strengthen that forward line. The Tigers should be winning this game if they are to be any threat in the finals, as they have more to play for and are in better form then the Magpies at the moment.

TIP

Richmond head into this game as favourites and rightfully so. They have the better form since the two last met for sure. If there’s a light at the end of the tunnel for Collingwood it’s that the Tigers haven’t managed to win two games in a row for 5 weeks now. If that pattern continues obviously the Magpies come out winners here.

I think this game will be a lot like the first clash, high scoring (100 points needed to win) and hard fought right to the very end. The Tigers are a good football side but have showed they are just below the absolute best which isn’t too dissimilar to the Magpies. The loss of Nathan Brown does hurt the Pies and so if they are to steal a victory here they will need to start well. If they can though, I believe the Magpies forward line can be the difference in this game.

MAGPIES BY 7 POINTS.

AFL Round 21 – Collingwood vs Brisbane Match Preview.

Ninth place, most say it’s the worst position to finish at the end of the AFL home and away season, and that’s exactly where Collingwood sit with three games remaining. You see, if you finish 9^th you don’t play finals, but you also don’t get a particularly high draft pick, so it could just be the worst place to finish. It’s been a strange season for Collingwood, that has now turned into an underwhelming season. The Magpies came into 2014 hoping to improve on not winning a final last year, yet after 19 games it’s becoming apparent that they may not play finals at all.

This weekend, on Saturday night, they host the Brisbane Lions at the MCG in a round 21 matchup that could kill off the Magpies season once and for all. The Lions finals hopes disappeared long ago as they sit in 15^th spot with only 6 wins out of 19 games. Brisbane started the season terribly only winning one of their first 9 games so the decision to play as many youngsters as possible became an easy one for coach Justin Leppitsch. Their form has improved though in the second half of the year with 5 wins out of their last 10 games, which is actually the same as what the Magpies have won in that same period. These two clubs do have some history, with the most obvious clashes being in the 2002 and 2003 seasons when they faced off in back to back Grand Finals, with the Lions coming out on top both times. Both senior coaches this week played in those Grand Finals which adds another twist to a game that the Pies simply must win.

COLLINGWOOD PREVIEW

Slump, I think that’s the right word to describe what Collingwood are going through at the moment, having won only 2 of their last 8 games. The most recent loss, last weekend over in Perth to the Eagles by 60 points, really solidified that this Magpies outfit is just playing out the season now. Yes there’s still a slight chance they could make the final 8 and play a final or two, but even the most ardent of Collingwood fan wouldn’t believe they can do any damage in September now. It’s fallen away quickly too, after starting the season 8-3 and sitting in 4^th spot on the ladder after a win over Melbourne, the Pies were even being talked about as premiership threats. Well that’s over now, they aren’t even a threat to sides around them it seems. Last week’s loss was a disaster though, from start to finish the Pies rarely looked like a finals contending team with very few consistent performers on the day. Their 3 star midfielders did their bit, with Beams, Pendlebury and Sidebottom all racking up decent numbers but their direct opponents also got plenty of the ball. The depth of the Magpies midfield and backline was exposed badly as the Eagles ran rampant and kept their season alive. Amongst the doom and gloom of the last 8 weeks there has been some positives though with the return of Ben Reid and the VFL debut of a few Pies future stars, showing that there is still a light at the end of the tunnel. That loss left Collingwood in 9^th and with a big dent to their percentage they probably have to win out to even have a chance of finishing in the top 8 now.

There is some good news in regards to selection for Collingwood this week at least with Dane Swan ready to return after missing a few games through injury. Luke Ball has had 2 good performances in the VFL and should also come back into the 22. The VFL had another good win so there are options from there including Grundy, Karnezis, Thomas, Mooney and Sinclair, with all available for selection this week. Tom Langdon travelled to Perth as the emergency so even he could come back in if the selection committee really want to send a message and make 5-6 changes. No matter what the final selection is though it’s always about intensity for Collingwood, you know early in a game if they are on or not, and against the Eagles it was obvious they weren’t. It would be the final nail in the coffin if they lost to the Lions so more fight is required this week from the Pies players.

OPPOSITION ANALYSIS

The Lions came into the 2014 season knowing it was going to be tough after losing 5 of their highly rated youngsters to their home stats in the off season. It left the Lions with a very young and inexperienced list and then when the inevitable injuries hit, like they do at all clubs, the depth simply wasn’t there to provide cover. The last 10 weeks have been more promising though as some of those youngsters get more experienced and the Lions injury list shrunk. 5 wins in 10 games is as good as their opponents this week although just like the Pies they are coming off a thumping last weekend. The loss to the Crows was one out of the blue for a Brisbane team who had only lost one game by a big margin since round 9. They will want to redeem themselves this week and show they simply aren’t that bad and they do have a promising future.

Tom Rockliff plays his 100th game this weekend.

The Brisbane Lions midfield is going through a transition and it really has struggled this season. The Lions rank last for contested possessions and sit in the bottom 5 for clearances and centre clearances. It is a young midfield though with names like Rockliff, Aish, Bewick, Hanley, Zorko and Mayes it’s little wonder that they rank poorly in most categories. They have had games where they’ve looked dangerous in the middle though but as with most young groups consistency is an issue. The ruck situation looked dire for a while at the Lions this year with Matthew Leunberger (finally a chance to return this week) missing so much football but in the last few weeks ex Demon Stefan Martin has really filled the hole and has been very impressive. The good news for the Lions is they run into a Pies midfield that isn’t performing well itself, as if you take out the recent win over the Power they’ve been smashed in the middle just about every week.

The Lions defense actually has some experienced campaigners in it with McGuire, Patfull and Adcock providing solidity down back in a team severely lacking that trait. Around them though is inexperience and with the midfield being beaten most weeks the backline hasn’t been able to hold up under the constant barrage of opposition forward entries. The Lions have conceded the 16^th most points this season and their away record has been very poor indeed. They do clash with a Pies forward line that has been dysfunctional itself although the likes of Cloke, Elliott, Reid and White should really dominate against a backline of this ilk.

The Brisbane forward line lost one of it’s all time greats in recent weeks when Jonathan Brown called it quits after yet another head injury. Brown had been the rock for so long that had held not only the forward line but the whole team together but without him the Lions have really struggled to put a score on the board, with only one total over 100 for the season. Daniel Merrett has had to stay up forward when he he plays his best football down back, and if you look at the rest of the names in the forward line you can see why. Josh Green is leading the goal kicking for the club with 27 goals, but after that it drops away significantly. Only Jack Crisp averages more than a goal a game outside of Green and the retired Brown. If there’s a positive for the Lions it’s that they face a Pies defense in disarray, a backline that has capitulated several times in the last few months due to it’s own inexperience. It’s the one area of the ground the Lions will have to exploit the Pies if they are to be any chance at all.

The Lions will want to put up a better showing here than they did against the Crows, and their intensity has to more consistent and higher throughout this game. They need to win their fair share of the ball in the middle to be any chance because the only area you can see them exploiting Collingwood is if they can get the ball forward quickly and with accuracy. It’s only the Lions second (and last) game at the MCG this year and with Tom Rockliff playing his 100^th game they should put up a fight against a Collingwood side who itself is struggling.

TEAMS

Collingwood
B: Marley Williams, Jack Frost, Tyson Goldsack
HB: Alan Toovey, Lachlan Keeffe, Alex Fasolo
C: Steele Sidebottom, Dane Swan, Heritier Lumumba
HF: Jarryd Blair, Ben Reid, Tim Broomhead
F: Jamie Elliott, Travis Cloke, Brodie Grundy
Foll: Jarrod Witts, Dayne Beams, Scott Pendlebury
Int: Brent Macaffer, Ben Kennedy, Luke Ball, Ben Sinclair
Emg: Clinton Young, Jesse White, Tony Armstrong

IN: Luke Ball, Brodie Grundy, Ben Sinclair, Dane Swan
OUT: Sam Dwyer (hamstring), Tony Armstrong, Jesse White, Clinton Young (omitted)

Brisbane
B: Justin Clarke, Matt Maguire, Darcy Gardiner
HB: Jack Crisp, Joel Patfull, Pearce Hanley
C: Sam Mayes, Jed Adcock, Dayne Zorko
HF: Lewis Taylor, Jonathan Freeman, James Aish
F: Daniel McStay, Michael Close, Daniel Merrett
Foll: Stefan Martin, Ryan Harwood, Josh Green
Int: Rohan Bewick, Claye Beams, Marco Paparone, Tom Rockliff
Emg: Nick Robertson, Ryan Lester, Zac O’Brien

IN: Claye Beams
OUT: Nick Robertson (omitted)

Milestone: Tom Rockliff (100 games)

TIP

Collingwood should win this game, but you would have said the same when they played the Bulldogs and the Suns, yet look what happened there. The performance last week may well have been as season low for both clubs and you’d expect they would both come out firing early on with a hard attack on the ball.

Ultimately there just seems to be way too many holes in the Lions young side to worry the Pies at home and Collingwood will come away with a comfortable win.

PIES BY 32 POINTS.

VFL

The Collingwood VFL side is up to 6^th on the ladder and with two games remaining before the finals are just about guaranteed of making the top 8. This weekend they travel down to Geelong to play the Cats VFL outfit. The game starts at 11am at Kardinia Park.

AFL Round 21 – Collingwood vs Hawthorn Match Preview.

What a difference a few weeks makes. If you go back just two weeks the Collingwood Football Club was in crisis it seemed, having lost all on field form. The media and fans were writing their season off after a loss to the Gold Coast and an unimpressive win over the GWS Giants. Fast forward two weeks, and the Magpies look as dangerous as any other team in the competition at the moment. It all started against Essendon for the Magpies when that ferocious intensity and pressure on the opposition, the traits that made the Pies so good in 2010 and 2011, returned to a level probably unseen since those days. The Magpies destroyed the hapless Bombers by 79 points and then last Saturday night in Sydney followed that up with a win over the reigning premiers, the Swans by 29 points. At this very moment the Magpies are one of, if not the team no one wants to face in week one of the finals series.

Once again though the draw just gets tougher for the Magpies with a matchup this Friday night against their bogey team, Hawthorn. I say bogey team because since the Pies last beat the Hawks, back in that epic 2011 preliminary final, Hawthorn has won all four meetings by an average of 43 points. The last time the two teams faced off was in round 3 this year and the Hawks smashed Collingwood off the park with a 55 point win, with Franklin, Breust, Roughead and Burgoyne combining to kick as many goals as the entire Magpies line up. There will be personnel changes to both sides in comparison to that last match but Collingwood really do have trouble against Hawthorn, so this is the biggest test as to whether the Pies are really a contender or not. Collingwood probably don’t even have to win this game to prove their worth, a close result would do that just as well, but if they want to keep alive an outside chance of a top four position this is a must win game for the Magpies.

PREVIOUS FORM

The Hawks big loss to the Tigers two weeks ago was a shock.

One could argue that the Hawks, despite being on top of the AFL ladder at the moment, are not playing anywhere near their full potential. A 41 point loss in the wet at the MCG to the Tigers two weeks ago was followed up by a very lacklustre performance against the Saints on Friday night. Yes, the Hawks had two absolute stars missing in Luke Hodge and Lance Franklin but they struggled to put the Saints away until late, eventually coming away with a 46 point win. The loss to the Tigers was so out of the norm for the Hawks though, up to that point they had only lost two games all year, and they were both to Geelong, their bogey team. That loss to the Tigers was a strange one indeed, and can probably be put down to just an off week for the Hawks. There have been plenty of positives for the Hawks this year with Jarryd Roughead the stand out, trailing in the Coleman medal race by just one goal with three rounds left. Roughead has also begun to go back into the ruck for the Hawks, and may well be their most effective ruck as well. The Hawks are still one of the sides to beat in 2013, there’s little doubt about that, despite that recent hiccup.

Collingwood, wow, where did this come from? Two big wins over opponents that had been sitting in the top four for most of the season all of a sudden has rejuvenated the whole club. The win over Essendon could have been questioned in regards to it’s validity, but to defeat the reigning premiers at home left the football world in no doubt of what the Pies are capable of. Collingwood again started slowly against the Swans, allowing the locals to kick the first 4 goals, but from then on the Pies really did dominate in just about every area. The only two Swans to put up real fights were McVeigh and Tippett, with the latter booting 6 goals before 3/4 time. For the Magpies the midfield totally dominated with Pendlebury, Beams, Swan and Ball all having over 30 possessions each. The turnaround in the last two weeks has also come about due to a more efficient forward line, with the move of Ben Reid down forward providing the Magpies with a multi dimensional attack for the first time this season. Jamie Elliott took advantage of that last week playing maybe his best game for the club, finishing with 3 goals as the primary small forward. The Pies are back in form, but this week is another test altogether.

COLLINGWOOD PREVIEW

There’s really no under stating just how big of a change has occurred to this Collingwood outfit in the last few weeks, with the club going from struggling against the two expansion clubs to ruthlessly disposing of two finals bound sides. There seems to be two main reasons for this improvement. The first one is a change in attitude from the players, you can just see they seem to be more aggressive but also enjoying their football a lot more than they were a few weeks back. The second point, and this may actually be the reason for point one, is that the Pies finally have a settled best 22 playing week in, week out. This weekend for the second time in a row the Pies may well make no changes at all, and stability in a senior AFL team is something that leads to success. The Magpies have used 40 players this season, only the second year GWS Giants have used more, and this shows just how unstable, and how injury wrecked Collingwood has been in 2013. Of course, with injury and instability comes opportunity and several players who were granted the opportunity to win a first team slot have grabbed it with both hands and may not be letting go. The likes of Dwyer, Williams, Sinclair, Keeffe, J.Thomas and Grundy have performed above expectations in the last few weeks to the point where you can’t see them losing their place in the senior team.

Magpie youngster Brodie Grundy has burst onto the scene in the last month.

Of course Brodie Grundy has stolen all the limelight, being the first selected player in the draft and contesting so well against experienced and classy rucks, but he’s not the only one who has shown that this club has a massive future. The game plan at Collingwood is also coming along well, with less turnovers but a willingness to use the centre corridor more in one game than they did in an entire season under Mick Malthouse. Just now is the more attacking game plan showing signs of effectiveness.

This weekend the Pies face a real nemesis, a side that they have struggled to beat since it won the 2008 premiership. The last four times Collingwood has played the Hawks, it’s been ugly from a Magpies perspective so this becomes the ultimate test. The Pies won’t make many changes at selection, if any, so it then becomes who matches up on who in that dangerous Hawks forward line. Lachie Keeffe may well get the first shot at restricting Lance “Buddy” Franklin, and the inexperienced defender has played on him before, back in round 1 2012 and was decent, without being great. Nathan Brown is likely to take Jarryd Roughead which leaves Jack Gunston, Breust and Rioli for the rest of the Pies backline to handle. You’d think this is where the game will be won or lost but the Hawks have been struggling in the midfield, especially in that loss to the Tigers, and this Pies midfield is as good as any in the competition at the moment. Collingwood will look to dominate in the middle and stop the ball from getting down to that worrying Hawks forward line as much as possible. It’s testing time for Collingwood, time to see if they really are back.

OPPOSITION ANALYSIS

The Hawks don’t sit on top of the AFL ladder by chance, they have earned the right to sit there through 19 games of tough, hard, skilful football. Most weekends, the Hawks merely over power their opponents, and rarely do they play a purely defensive game style like some of the other finalists do, they attack and they attack in waves. They have the best forward line in the AFL, of that there is almost no argument and over the past few seasons have recruited well to fill gaps that have been exposed during the finals. Last year of course they missed out on a massive opportunity to add to their 2008 premiership when they lost a Grand Final to the Swans in a game they started favourites in, but you get the feeling that lost has given this group the motivation it needs to go all the way this season. The loss to the Tigers two weeks back was only the third this season, and only the second club the Hawks had lost to, so it’s pretty clear to see that this Hawthorn line up is still very formidable indeed.

The Hawthorn forward line is obviously the team’s area of strength, as it has been for a significant period of time. Of course it’s led by two of the best key position forwards in the AFL, Lance “Buddy” Franklin and Jarryd Roughead, both capable of destroying teams in any given game. They are more than ably assisted by Jack Gunston, who plays the role of third key forward most weeks, Cyril Rioli who most sides are simply scared of and Luke Breust who acts as that surprise forward that sides sometimes forget about. Paul Puopolo also plays forward the majority of the time, but he hasn’t had as he may have in the past, as shown by his return of less then a goal a game this year. The Hawks also have plenty of goal kicking midfielders that add to the scoreboard but it’s this forward line up that most teams are unable to handle. This is the area of the ground that Hawthorn will look to dominate against a Pies backline that is missing Alan Toovey and is using Ben Reid more up forward than back. If the Hawks can get it inside 50 as much as the Pies can, then the Magpies defense will be truly tested this week, and how it stands up may well decide this game.

Sam Mitchell is still as reliable as ever in the Hawks midfield.

The Hawks midfield has been struggling a little bit of late, with the Tigers absolutely smashing them in the defeat two weeks ago. The form or premiership player Brad Sewell has been the greatest concern as he’s found himself struggling to the point where he has been omitted several times this season. Statistically though, apart from that one game against Richmond the Hawks central brigade is still one of the best in the AFL. They rank second for centre clearances and a respectable 8^th for total clearances and contested possessions. Any midfield that is led my Mitchell, Burgoyne and Hodge still has a capacity to compete, and defeat most oppositions when it comes to getting first hands on the ball. The Hawks ruck set up has this myth about it, that it’s not very good yet it sits 8^th (a familiar statistical rating it seems) which is much better than the Pies, who continue to have the least hitouts of anyone in the AFL. Youngster Brodie Grundy has seen to improve the Pies in that area though, so it will be interesting to see how he goes against a probable ruck combination of Hale and Bailey. The Pies midfield is their strength, and simply put it’s the area of the ground they must dominate if they are to break their losing streak against the Hawks.

The Hawks backline came under some criticism after last year’s finals series, and the club reacted by going out and getting a big name full bake in Brian Lake from the Bulldogs. When fit Lake is without doubt one of the best attacking defenders in the AFL and already has formed a partnership with Josh Gibson that has improved the Hawks backline. Along with these two Ben Stratton keeps on improving to a point where the Hawthorn backline is no longer an apparent weakness. This week their backline will have to deal with an entirely different Collingwood forward set up than what they’ve seen in the past, with Ben Reid and Jamie Elliott now as dangerous as Travis Cloke. Cloke is a beast who still gives Hawks fans nightmares about that fateful 2011 preliminary final when he simply carried the Pies back into the game, and eventually Hawks. The Pies forward line isn’t quite as efficient and scary as the Hawks version, but if the Pies midfield can deliver it cleanly and more often inside the attacking zone the Pies may this time score enough to get over the line.

This is a heavyweight clash, and you get the feeling both sets of players are really looking forward to a genuine test just 3 weeks out from the finals. The Hawks won’t hold back, they can’t if they want to secure a top 2 spot and a guaranteed home match in week one of finals series. They are almost certain to get Franklin back but Luke Hodge may have to wait one more week to get over that thumb injury. Hawthorn will go into this game confident that it can beat Collingwood, but it’s a different Pies outfit than they faced back in round 3 so they’ll have to be on their game or else.

TEAMS

Collingwood
B: Nathan Brown, Nick Maxwell, Heath Shaw
HB: Brent Macaffer, Lachlan Keeffe, Tyson Goldsack
C: Harry O’Brien, Luke Ball, Josh Thomas
HF: Steele Sidebottom, Quinten Lynch, Jamie Elliott
F: Dayne Beams, Travis Cloke, Ben Reid
Foll: Brodie Grundy, Scott Pendlebury, Dane Swan
Int: Jarryd Blair, Ben Sinclair, Sam Dwyer, Marley Williams
Emg: Ben Hudson, Ben Kennedy, Paul Seedsman

NO CHANGE

Round 21 team
FB: Stratton Lake Guerra
HB: Burgoyne Gibson Duryea
C:   Smith  Mitchell   Whitecross
HF: Hodge  Franklin  Gunston
FF:  Breust  Roughead  Rioli
RUCKS:  Hale Sewell Lewis
IC: Birchall, Hill, Savage, Puopolo

EM: Bailey, Simpkin, Cheney

IN: Hodge, Birchall, Franklin
OUT: Spangher, Grimley, Simpkin (all omitted)

 

TIP

Harry O’Brien and Luke Ball celebrate after last weeks’ win.

Hawthorn will start favourites for this game, and deservedly so as they sit 1^st, and the Pies sit back in 5^th yet it’s Collingwood who come into the game with all the momentum. The weather may play a part too with very strong winds and rain forecast for Friday night, although it’s not too often that the weatherman is accurate this far out. If it is wild and wet it favours Collingwood, there is no doubt about that at all as the Pies destroyed Essendon in the wet the day after the Tigers did the same to the Hawks in similar conditions.

Hawthorn’s forward line is where this game will be won or lost in my opinion, and it’s all got to do with how often, and how accurate the ball delivery is from the Hawthorn midfielders. If the Pies can place the Hawks under the type of intense pressure they placed on the Bombers and Swans then it might be Collingwood who come out of this game with a win, rather than the flag favourites.

PIES BY 13 POINTS.

AFL Round 21 – Collingwood vs North Melbourne Match Preview.

The Kangaroos season is back on track after some poor mid season results.

204 POINTS, that was the aggregate total between the Collingwood and North Melbourne football clubs during the 2011 AFL premiership season, as the Magpies, on their way to their second consecutive Grand Final appearance destroyed the Kangaroos by margins of 87 and 117 points in performances that showed just how big the gap was between the two teams last year. But a lot has changed in 12 months, last year North Melbourne simply could not compete against the top sides in the AFL, yet this year they have not only competed but at times defeated some top class outfits in a season that has seen the young Roos rise from a side that did not make the finals last year to a team that looks as if it may be a dangerous prospect for any side should it, as expected make the final eight in 2012. It hasn’t been all plain sailing for the Kangaroos in 2012 though, as a mid year slump that saw them lose 4 out of 5 games between rounds 6 and 10 left them with only a 4-6 win/loss record heading into their bye, and saw North Melbourne having to make a drastic turn in form if they were to even challenge for a spot in the final eight late in the year.

After the bye though a different outfit in blue and white stripes emerged, as since the round 11 week off the Roos have only lost the one game, and even that was by such a small margin (2 points) that many thought they were unlucky to lose in Hobart against the premiership contending West Coast Eagles. That loss has seen the Kangaroos fly up the ladder over the last 9 weeks and sees them currently sitting in a season high sixth position with just three rounds remaining in the home and away season.

Collingwood secured a gutsy eight point win over Sydney last week.

Meanwhile, over at Collingwood, North’s opponent on Saturday Night at Etihad Stadium in Melbourne’s Dockland’s region, things have been chugging along at a rather strange pace over the past few weeks, with losses by big margins, wins by smaller margins and an internal club suspension leaving many to question whether the Magpies are a genuine premiership contender. Then came the contest against Sydney last weekend at the Olympic Stadium up north, where the Magpies were almost written off once again, after trailing by 17 points late in the third quarter, and having in game injuries to Thomas, Jolly, Maxwell and Fasolo, only to rally strongly over the last quarter and a half to come away with a season defining 8 point win over the ladder leading Swans. It was the type of win that gives a playing group the confidence to believe it can achieve great things, and for the first time in 2012 new coach Nathan Buckley even joined in the winners circle as the song was sung as loud as it has been since the epic preliminary final win last September. The Magpies on the night had plenty of contributors, but it was the form of four tall players, Dawes, Cloke, Reid and Brown that would have bought a smile to the heart of any Collingwood fan watching, as all four contributed greatly in a sapping, finals like contest where the Magpies eventually overcame the ever intense Swans. Once again though Collingwood won not only on the back of some star performances, but by an even contribution of all of it’s team members as even youngsters like Paul Seedsman and Jamie Elliott had an impact on the game late on. Maybe the best sign for Collingwood in the great win over the Swans was the return of the immensely talented Alan Didak, who once subbed on for the injured Dale Thomas had an immediate impact on the game kicking an all important goal in the second quarter before showing time and time again just how much the team in black and white stripes has missed his sublime skills, mostly via that deadly accurate left boot. It was a win that saw Collingwood tie both Adelaide and Sydney for first spot with 60 premiership points (15 wins) with three games remaining before the finals begin

Andrew Krakouer may still be one week away from returning to the Pies seniors.

Both teams will front up on Saturday thinking they can win this game, and rightfully so, as North have been night on unbeatable at Eithad Stadium while Collingwood showed last week that no matter who they have on the field they can beat any team at any time. Collingwood may go into a game unchanged for the first time in a long time, with the only real injury concern being over Dale Thomas, who suffered a severe corked thigh that saw him substituted out in the second quarter last week. All reports state that Thomas has been training, but has appeared to be slightly restricted, but with a few days yet to rehabilitate that injury Thomas should be right to go. The Magpies do have some decisions to make though regarding three senior players that have returned in the VFL over the past few weeks as knee injury victims Brent Macaffer and Andrew Krakouer have completed two full games while club stalwart, and premiership star Ben Johnson returned from a long term shoulder injury to show that he had lost none of his touch with a performance that saw him named in the Magpies best players against Sandringham on Sunday. It is unlikely that any three will be seriously considered this week, but Johnson would probably be leading the race to return at the moment. The Magpies may also consider youngsters Jackson Paine, Jarrod Witts and the back up ruckman Cameron Wood although unless Darren Jolly is sore because of a knee to the back from last weeks game it seems Wood will have to return through the VFL after a week off.

The Magpies will be looking to continue on with the type of intensity level that saw them defeat the Swans last week, as their biggest obstacle in the final three weeks may be complacency with a top four spot all but assured now.

Opposition Analysis.

Once again Collingwood runs into a team on a winning streak, as North Melbourne enter this matchup on the back of a six game winning streak which has seen them defeat fellow finals contenders Essendon, Carlton and Richmond in impressive fashion. Maybe the most impressive performance of their recent run came last week though when the Roos came from behind to beat the Bombers despite having several players sitting on the bench due to injury who could not contribute. The Roos have formed a team that has a great mix of youth, middle tiered players and experienced stars that has seen them become a team that no one wants to meet come the finals. This weekend they will lose a few players due to injury, with Nathan Grima (hamstring) and Daniel Wells (calf) and tough tagger Leigh Adams also in doubt after again having troubles with his shoulder last weekend. But the Roos will get back two big names in Jack Ziebell and Lindsay Thomas, who both return after serving suspensions, although many still question the length of Ziebell’s punishment.

North Melbourne’s midfield definitely doesn’t get the respect or attention from the media or football public that it deserves, and this is despite their midfield being as potent and effective as just about any over the past few months. Led by their captain Andrew Swallow, and the ever present Brent Harvey, the Roos midfield is in the top six in the league for both contested possessions and clearances and is ranked second in total hitouts with only the mighty Eagles combo sitting in front of them. As most know, if your midfield is able to get first use of the ball it leads to so many advantages, whether it be free kicks, better delivery into your forward line or just making the opposition chase too much, and North do all these in spades. How good Todd Goldstein has been for the Kangaroos this season can’t be underestimated either, as for the most part he has rucked one out against the best the AFL has to offer in the rucks, and on most occasions he has come out on top. The Jolly vs Goldstein match up should be one worth watching for sure.

Michael Firrito provides both run and a strong body in defense for North Melbourne.

The Kangaroo’s defense might be the weak point of the current line up, but it may also have more to do with the style of play North play than the actual ability of the players down back. North sit 13^th for points conceded in 2012, but they sit 2^nd for points in total offence, so it shows their game style is one that leads to an average higher score than just about any other team in the AFL. The backline does have talent though, led by Scott Thompson and Michael Firrito who know no other way than to be at a high intensity level for every contest of every game. Losing Nathan Grima this week will hurt the Roos against the likes of Dawes, Cloke and Tarrant, but North do have choices at VFL level so their backline will still be competitive against the Pies. If North really lack anything, it may be a full time small/medium defender who could take the likes of a Didak, Sinclair or Fasolo this week, with Scott McMahon and Shaun Atley maybe the choices to take the smaller Pies forwards on Saturday Night.

North will try and out score Collingwood though, just like they have every other side when they have won (obviously), but there is no doubt that coach Brad Scott has given his players license to attack and play on at almost all costs, and in recent works it has worked to perfection. And why wouldn’t you want to play on and move the ball forward to an offensive grouping that includes names like Petrie, Thomas, Tarrant (Robbie, who will play against older brother Chris for the first time) Hansen, Wright Campbell and Harper. There’s more than just one reason why North sit second for total points scored in 2012, and that grouping gives the Kangaroos fans plenty of entertainment, and hope on a weekly basis. North do have a nice spread of goal kickers with five in total kicking 20 goals or more this season, with Drew Petrie obviously leading the way with 52, which finds him in with an outside chance of winning the Coleman medal. His matchup with Nathan Brown will pit two of the best players in their respective positions against one another in a duel that will be one of the highlights of this game.

Etihad Stadium sits on the edge of the docks on Melbourne’s inner edge.

The fact this game is being held at North Melbourne’s home ground, Etihad Stadium, despite being a Collingwood home game gives North a bigger advantage than most are probably going to mention. There’s little doubt that the Kangaroos are a several goal better team under the roof than they are at the MCG, and the opposite probably goes for Collingwood, who definitely produce their best football in natural conditions, as proven once again last week against Sydney in wet and windy conditions in Sydney. Brad Scott may tweak the North Melbourne game plan a little and play slightly more defensive against the first top side they have met since their lost to the Eagles in Hobart, but you would still expect the Kangaroos to look to move the ball quickly when they get hold if it. North don’t have to win this game to make the finals, but if they could pull it off they would all but seal a top eight birth and a spot in September.

Teams;

Collingwood
B: Chris Tarrant, Harry O’Brien, Nathan Brown
HB: Nick Maxwell, Ben Reid, Alan Toovey
C: Sharrod Wellingham, Alex Fasolo, Jarryd Blair
HF: Scott Pendlebury, Chris Dawes, Heath Shaw
F: Dale Thomas, Travis Cloke, Steele Sidebottom
Foll: Darren Jolly, Ben Sinclair, Dayne Beams
Int: Alan Didak, Marty Clarke, Jamie Elliott, Paul Seedsman
Emg: Tom Young, Ben Johnson, Caolan Mooney

NO CHANGE

 

Tip.

Darren Jolly should line up this week despite a knee to the back last round.

This will be an exciting game to watch, more so than the Pies vs Swan or Kangaroos vs Bombers games of last weekend as both sides will be fighting hard to ensure they keep their current positions on the ladder with teams both above and below them likely to win this weekend, a loss would mean at least one spot lost on the ladder for the defeated team. It will be a more attacking game than the ones the Pies have been in lately, as both the likelihood of a closed roof and the attacking nature of North Melbourne, as well as the potent forward lines of both teams.

Collingwood has it’s only injury concerns going into the match, but if Dale Thomas and Darren Jolly come through their hits on the weekend, they should take their place in a line-up that is as strong as any the Magpies have put on the field this year. While on the other side, North will get Ziebell and Thomas back, but will lose key defender Grima and the skilful Wells to injuries sustained last week.

On paper, this seems like an easy win to Collingwood, especially with the North player losses due to injury, but being at Etihad definitely gives the Kangas an advantage and may see them push, or even defeat the Magpies in a highly competitive game of football. But ultimately I see the Magpies gaining a huge amount of confidence out of last weeks win and finding a way to both outplay, and finally outscore North to come away with a hard fought, 3-4 goal win.

Pies by 18.

VFL

Boom recruit Jarrod Witts is likely to be in the VFL again this weekend.

The Collingwood VFL team this week returns to their home ground, at Victoria Park to take on the Casey Scorpions at 1pm on Saturday. There was talk that Dane Swan might play in this game, but the club has confirmed he won’t go around this weekend. The likes of Krakouer, Johnson, Macaffer, Witts, Paine, Wood and Josh Thomas will still be worth checking out though.