At the Melbourne Cricket Ground this Saturday Night, the Collingwood and Richmond Football Clubs will match up in round 2 of the AFL premiership season. Collingwood and Richmond are probably most famously (some may same infamously) known for having the two most passionate sets of supporters in the AFL, and at times this had led to massive crowds at their recent home and away games, and this week should be no different with 70,000 plus expected at the mecca that is the M.C.G. Both teams entered the season with eternal hope of improving slightly on last season, where Collingwood just fell short on the biggest stage of them all, Grand Final day, while the Tigers finished 12th after the home and away season, and missed the finals yet again. Over the off season the respective clubs added numerous talent via both the draft and trade table, and looked forward to a great start to season 2012. But last week, those dreams were soured just a little bit when both had opening round losses.
Last week, in the M.C.G. opener on the last Thursday night in April, Richmond went down to Carlton by 44 points. On face value it looks like a poor loss, but it has to be mentioned that early in the final quarter they had a few shots at goal that could have levelled the scores, of even better put them in front if they had of been accurate. But after those chances were wasted, Carlton ran away with the game and never really looked in any danger of losing. Richmond’s best on the night were forward Jack Riewoldt (who kicked 4.3), and midfielders Cotchin, Foley and Martin, who showed that with some added support the Tigers may well be building a powerful midfield for the future.
Collingwood played the following night, also at the M.C.G, against a rampaging Hawthorn team hungry for revenge after last years preliminary final defeat. The Magpies started very strong, having as many as 12 scoring shots in the first quarter, but wayward kicking left them with only a score of 2.7.19 at quarter time, and a lead of only 6 points, in what would in hindsight come to the forefront as a large reason why Collingwod ultimately lost the game. The game was intense from minute one, yet unlike most encounters between top teams of season past, it was open, free flowing and high scoring. By the end of the game, the tiring Magpies had lost by 22 points to Hawthorn, with their own personal standouts being superstar midfielder Scott Pendlebury, ruckman Darren Jolly, little man Jarryd Blair and Steele Sidebottom, who along with Pendlebury had a great third quarter to get the Pies back into the game.
With both teams coming off opening round losses, and with tough draws to start the season, this game becomes so important to the seasons and the respective final ladder positions of each club after the home and away portion of the season. If Collingwod lose, they go 0-2, and then have to face up to the in form Carlton off a 6 day break next Friday Night, in a game that at the moment Carlton would start favourites in. And an 0-3 start could almost rule the Magpies out of an all important top 4 finish. On the other hand, the picture isn’t much rosier for the Tigers, with a loss here, and with games to come against premiership contenders Geelong and West Coast within the first 5 rounds, they could be facing an 0-5 or at best 1-4 win loss ratio after the first 5 games if they lose on Saturday Night.
There is some good news for the Tigers though, as they are likely to have an advantage over Collingwood when it comes to the availability of their best players on their senior list. The injury list as Richmond is one of the shortest in the AFL, with only 3 injured players listed on it (Helbig, Moore and Astbury), and they also get to welcome back their own serial pest Jake King after he served a weeks suspension last week. Over at Collingwood, it’s a different story, while the Injury List has reduced in size recently, there are still some very notable names on it, with the likes of Didak, Maxwell, Nathan Brown, Brent Macaffer, and Andrew Krakouer all ruled out for senior selection this round, and with doubts over the fitness of defenders Chris Tarrant and Ben Johnson, Collingwood will go into this round 2 clash well under their full capability. Collingwood will regain star young midfielder Dayne Beams who has fought his own injury problems in the pre season, and it is likely that at least one of Tarrant or Johnson will return, although it’s unlikely both will play with only a six day break until the round 3 game against Cartlon.
Chris Tarrant and Ben Johnson in the VFL last weekend
With those that will be absent, it presents an opportunity for Richmond that they probably wouldn’t have thought would have presented itself when the draw was released last season. On the previous seasons form, this is 2nd vs 12th, and most occasions the 12th team from the previous season would be given little chance against the 2nd best team from the season before hand, but obviously circumstances have changed those thoughts this weekend.
Collingwood will be vulnerable in several areas, as they showed last week, with their backup ruck solution still in it’s infancy stages after the loss of Leigh Brown to retirement, Chris Dawes was given the role last week, and most critics sensed it didn’t work too well. Also the Collingwood defense looked very weak at times last week, and even with the likely inclusion of Chris Tarrant, it will still be missing several key senior players, with younger, less experienced players still remaining in their place.
Last week against Hawthorn, there was another clear problem, as Collingwood’s defense of the opposition kick ins was as bad as many can remember it being for several seasons. The damning statistic was that last week Collingwood conceded 5 goals from these kick ins, while last year, for the entire 22 game home and away season, they conceded only 25 goals from that defensive area of the game.
There were positives for Collingwood last week though, and areas that they will look to exploit this weekend. Darren Jolly once again gave a great effort as the number one ruckman, and at times seemed to dominate the ruck contests, and with Richmond’s ruck stocks not being anything spectacular, one would expect that dominance to continue on into this weekend. Also, the tall Collingwood forwards still had their fair share of contested marks and goal attempts, and while the final results may have been frustratingly wayward in terms of kicking accuracy for goal, the effort and ability to get the ball was a clear sign that the new forward addition of youngster Jackson Paine was going to add another dimension to an already imposing line.
The Magpies midfield also shone as bright as it could for as long as it could, with Ball, Pendlebury, Swan, Thomas, Sidebottom and Blair working hard and also dominating in periods in the clearances, only to look tired and lethargic late due to a lack of support from a few absent senior midfielders (Beams, Didak and Wellingham).
Some interest also has to focus on how the game will be played this week, after the frenetic, almost bullet like intensity that the respective games were played at last week, you would think both teams will be looking to play more of a possession style of game, slowing the ball movement down and restricting the amount of turnovers and counter attack scoring opportunities that the opposition will have.
It’s a fascinating match up, between two desperate teams, that’s for sure.
Opposition Analysis.
While the Tigers started the season with a loss, they showed more defensive pressure then they did in the past, despite the relatively high scoring match. But it still was a case of the same old Tigers at stages, with 10 or more Tiger players having a disposal efficiency of less then 70%, and some of those names were considered big names, such as Cotchin and Deledio.
Richmond have always had a reputation as a team that can go for one or two quarters at the pace required to match it with the top teams, and maybe even dominate for small periods, like they did last week against Carlton, but they still need to improve their consistency in both their effort and their output over the space of four quarters.
Up forward they have gone back to Brad Miller as Jack Riewoldt’s cut out man, and are also relying on young Tyrone Vickery to play more of a forward role in 2012, although some of his marking efforts last week made Chris Dawes’ look like Travis Cloke at times in comparison.
But it’s the midfield where the Tigers will look to match it with the Pies this week, it’s their ultimate strength, and with the return of Jake King, they should be able to rotate even more players through the middle as the game wears on, and to keep up with Collingwood they will need to.
The one major positive for the Tigers last week was the club debut of ex Adelaide ruckman Ivan Maric, which led to the Tigers actually winning the hitout count by a considerable margin (+12) although they still lost the clearances, despite their ruck dominance.
If you are looking at other positives from last week, the Tigers had more rebounds from their defensive 50 then Carlton did, although that is bound to happen when the opposition has 18 more inside inside 50’s over the 4 quarters.
But with all the stat losses for the Tigers, if they had kicked straight early in the last quarter, they would have been in front of a top four contender, and for them, that has to be an extreme positive to take into this weekends matchup with the Pies.
Teams;
Collingwood
B: Harry O’Brien, Lachlan Keeffe, Heath Shaw
HB: Chris Tarrant, Ben Reid, Tyson Goldsack
C: Dane Swan, Luke Ball, Dayne Beams
HF: Dale Thomas, Jackson Paine, Ben Sinclair
F: Travis Cloke, Chris Dawes, Alex Fasolo
Foll: Darren Jolly, Scott Pendlebury, Steele Sidebottom
I/C: Martin Clarke, Jarryd Blair, Alan Toovey, Paul Seedsman
Emg: Tom Young, Luke Rounds, Peter Yagmoor
In: Tarrant, Beams
Out: Rounds, Yagmoor (omitted)
Milestone: Chris Dawes (50 games), Luke Ball (50 CFC games)
Richmond
B: Steven Morris, Alex Rance, Chris Newman
HB: Bachar Houli, Dylan Grimes, Brandon Ellis
C: Shaun Grigg, Dustin Martin, Daniel Jackson
HF: Brett Deledio, Tyrone Vickery, Shane Edwards
F: Brad Miller, Jack Riewoldt, Jake King
Foll: Ivan Maric, Trent Cotchin, Nathan Foley
I/C: Shane Tuck, Robin Nahas, Reece Conca, Jake Batchelor
Emg: Angus Graham, Matthew White, Addam Maric
In: Jake King, Jake Batchelor
Out: Jayden Post, Addam Maric
Milestones: Bachar Houli – 50 games
Tip.
Collingwood love winning the contested ball, wherever it may be, forward, back or where it is mostly contested, amongst the midfielders, and even last week, while being beaten late in that game against Hawthorn, they were still ultra competitive inside those contested possesion contests. And that’s where I see the biggest advantage for Collingwood, this game is likely to be high scoring again, both teams are weak down back, the Pies mainly due to injury, and the Tigers mainly due to inexperience so whomever can win that ball out of the contested situations is likely to win this game. To win this game well, the Pies will have to kick straight, and I just can’t see them kicking with deadly accuracy after last weeks first quarter debacle, so I am tipping them by a modest margin after taking that into mind.
PIES by 28 points.
VFL
The Collingwood VFL side plays it’s second regular season match at our old home, Victoria Park, on Saturday at 1.10pm. The game is also live on ABC TV (at least in Melbourne anyway).
SportsMatt 