FRIDAY THE 13TH, 2012 turned out to be a true nightmare for the Collingwood Football Club in more ways then anyone could ever have imagined. Not only did last seasons Grand Finalists lose to their arch enemy Carlton by ten goals, but they also lost inspirational midfielder Luke Ball for the rest of the season with a knee injury, and on top of that 2011 All Australian Centre Half Back Ben Reid hurt his quad and will miss up to a month. The night just kept going from bad to worse for the Magpies, with a low intensity beginning by the men in black and white handing Carlton an all important early lead, and once the two aforementioned players went down, everything began to spiral out of control. Even the ever reliable stars the Magpies have, like Dane Swan and Heath Shaw turned the ball over in uncharacteristic fashion, as Friday Night at the MCG really did turn into a horror show for the black and white army.
The next day it continued, with recently departed senior coach, Mick Malthouse, and club president Eddie McGuire partaking in a nasty public argument, that threatened to derail the clubs season almost before it had began. But through all the problems emerged a shining light, as on Tuesday new coach, and club champion Nathan Buckley fronted a media pack frothing at the mouth for more controversy, calmly and confidently spoke more about how the club needed to concentrate on the upcoming clash against Port Adelaide, and how the happenings of the last few days needed to be largely forgotten if the club was to recover and improve going forward. This response by the previously under siege Coach drew applause from all parts of the AFL world, and may well be remembered as the exact moment that Collingwood’s 2012 premiership campaign got back on track.
Collingwood players leave the field after their loss to Carlton last Friday Night
This weekend, at Etihad Stadium in Melbourne’s Docklands, Collingwood will face up against another old foe, this time in the form of the Port Adelaide Power, a team who have shown marked improvement compared to the rabble that was representing them on field last season. Already this season Port have defeated St Kilda in front of their parochial fans, pushed finals contender Essendon to within a few kicks and matched it with top four contender Sydney for most of the match. On Saturday, in Adelaide at AAMI Stadium, Port pushed the more experienced and physically stronger Sydney Swans for almost the entire match, and with the sides only separated by 3 points at three quarter time, many though Port might be able to cause their second big upset of this young season. But Sydney showed their poise and experience, and ran away with a hard earned 22 point win. The Power were really a joke on field last season, with only a win in the final round saving them from the utter embarrassment of the wooden spoon, but with some smart recruiting and finally with some luck with injuries for a few of their young stars, Port are, for the first time in a few years, seen to be heading in the right direction on the field.
The Power/Magpies rivalry is fairly intense for one that is relatively young, with Port and Collingwood playing off in numerous famous finals, and the always continuing argument between the two clubs regarding who are the “real magpies” fuelling a rivalry that should continue to grow over time. On Saturday, both teams will look to level their win/loss ration at 2 wins and 2 losses, which is proof of how important this game is to both teams potential success this season. The loser will fall to one win and three losses, which will put them well behind the finals pack, let alone the top four contending teams, where Collingwood want to be come seasons end. The Pies have an injury list that may only be matched by one other club in the AFL (Essendon), and head into this game needing to manage it’s list due to having to play two games in four days, with the famous ANZAC day clash on Wednesday afternoon. Collingwood should welcome back experienced small defender Ben Johnson, after several good games in the VFL, and may also decide to roll the dice on enigmatic forward Alan Didak, who impressed in his first VFL hitout of the year. Also in contention is key defender Nathan Brown, and with the likes of Tarrant and Reid absent from the backline, Brown may be rushed back into the team to cover one of Ports tall forward options. Outside of the experienced names, youngsters such as Jackson Paine, Kirk Ugle, Tom Young, Peter Yagmoor and Paul Seedsman may also be considered for senior selection, with all showing signs over the past few weeks of their future potential.
Luke Ball after injuring his knee last week
Collingwood’s biggest problem may be how to replace Luke Ball though, with Ball being the clear contested possession leader at the club for the past two seasons, the coaching committee may choose to internally promote one of the young mid-fielders to the role, or consider an option from outside the current senior side. Developing midfielders Steele Sidebottom and Dayne Beams were amongst Collingwood’s best in an overall poor team performance last week, and will be asked to step up their respective games even more in the absence of Ball. Other options include the recently returned Sharrod Wellingham, gusty small Jarryd Blair and also Marty Clarke, whose form has been very good so far this season. Another problem that has been continuous this season at the Westpac Centre has been who to play as Darren Jolly’s support in the ruck, and after last weeks debacle, where the Pies were smashed in the centre clearances by Carlton, there are serious concerns as to whether Cameron Wood is the man to assist the two time premiership ruckman long term.
Whichever twenty two Nathan Buckley and the Collingwood selection committee select for this match, one thing will surely be asked of them, to play with high intensity from minute one, and continue to play at a high intensity for four quarters, something that has been sorely missing from the group wearing the famous black and white stripes so far this season.
Opposition Analysis.
Last season, the Power ended the home and away rounds in 16th (out of 17 teams), in what can only be described as their worst season since their inclusion into the AFL. Come 2012, and most the so called experts weren’t tipping Port to rise much at all, in fact some had them marginally ahead of the expansion teams, the Gold Coast Suns and the Greater Western Sydney Giants, as the worst established club in the AFL.
But round one put a lot of those experts back in their place, as the good old fighting spirit of the Port Adelaide Football Club seemed to return, as they grounded out a gutsy four point win over perennial finalists St Kilda. Although they have since lost their most recent two games, there are definite signs of improvement for the Power.
In the ruck, Port have been using newcomer Jarrad Redden as their number one ruck, and while at times he has struggled, for the majority of the first three rounds the 21 year old has held his own against some very handy, more experienced ruckman. He has been ably assisted by second ruckman/forward Daniel Stewart, who has managed to play that role to the level required in the first few games, and the match up with Jolly and most likely Wood will be a decisive one indeed.
Brad Edbet has been a great recruit for the Power
Ports midfield coming into this season was seen as a relative weakness, with major concerns over the possible return of Kane Cornes to near his best, after a rather odd season on and off the field last year. But Cornes, has started the season in as good a form as he may well ever have, averaging 26 disposals over the first three games. As always, club captain Domenic Cassisi has also been great, averaging 22 possessions and a club leading 6 tackles per game. But it’s been the two experienced recruits that Port have added to increase their depth and output in the midfield that have had the biggest impact. Arriving in different manners, Brad Ebert (from West Coast) and John McCarthy (from Collingwood) have been two absolute shining lights for Port over the first two rounds, with both averaging over 20 possessions, and also showing their liking for kicking goals. The bonus, if you would like to call him that has been the emergence of young star Hamish Hartlett, who after several years of injury setback after injury setback, seems to have finally been granted some luck from the football gods and is showing the talent the whole football world saw him possess at under age level before being drafted. In Hartlett Port have a star in the making they can build a midfield around, he is tough, intelligent with the ball in hand, and also is showing leadership abilities beyond his experience and age. Port will also need the likes of Pearce, Broadbent and Boak to assist with the rotations this week, against a Collingwood side that still rotates it’s midfield more then anyone, but the signs really are promising for Port.
The Power forward line might be where they can gain a distinct advantage this week, especially if star youngster John Butcher can return this week from a hamstring injury he suffered in round one. With no Reid or Tarrant this week, and most likely no Nathan Brown either, Port will look to their tall forwards to give them a chance of staying in the game for a long period. If Butcher does play, Port may well choose to go with a four tall set up in the forward line to stretch the weakened Collingwood defense. In the first few rounds, ex Tiger Jay Schulz has lead the way with eight goals, and Justin Westhoff has also been effective with seven majors to this point. Add second ruck Daniel Stewart and the possible return of Butcher, and several Port forwards may be literally looking down at their smaller opponents on Saturday afternoon. What Port may lack though is that dangerous small forward to worry Collingwood, with Cyril Rioli and Eddie Betts running rampant in the two Collingwood losses so far, Port will be hoping the possible return of Brett Ebert, or a move up forward for Daniel Pearce may give them another string to their forward bow.
John Butcher and Jay Schulz embrace after a goal in Port's round one victory
If Port have an apparent weakness, it’s their backline, or at least the defensive side of their game. In both their losses this season, Port have conceded over 100 points, and as historical percentages show, if your opponent manages to break that 100 point barrier, your chances of winning greatly decrease. On paper, the Port backline doesn’t look that bad, with names like Carlile, Trengove, Chaplin and Paul Stewart, but ideally the Port coaching staff would expect the backline to be performing better then it has been. But maybe that’s being a little unfair, in the three games they have played, small forwards statistically have been more effective against them then the talls, with the two Jettas (Leeroy and Lewis) and Stephen Milne each kicking multiple goals in their respective games. The good thing for Port may be that without Leon Davis and Andrew Krakouer Collingwood’s small forwards don’t look as dangerous as they once did, although Alex Fasolo and Jarryd Blair are still getting on the scoreboard, despite the teams poor overall performances.
Port have improved already from last season, I don’t think there’s nay doubt about that, but now they must run into a top four contender coming off their most humiliating loss in several seasons, it may well prove too much, but time will tell.
Key Matchups;
Chaplin/Carlile vs Cloke/Dawes
I think Port will prefer Trengove to play on the resting ruckman for the pies, so the two power forwards for Collingwood will have to contend with Carlile and Chaplin. Dawes’ form has been poor, while the supply to Cloke and the double teaming that most teams have tried has been effective so far this year. Cloke will be looking to break out here though, so Port’s talls will have to pay close attention the monster forward.
Travis Cloke and Chris Dawes share a laugh
Renouf vs Jolly
Jolly seemed to considerably struggle against the more agile and athletic Carlton rucks last week, and while Redden isn’t exactly slow, he’s not a Kreuzer type. Jolly, if all reports are true, just had a bad match last Friday Night, and if he can regain his form from the first two rounds, the ex Hawk may be in for a tough day in his debut for Port.
Keefe vs Schulz
With no Tarrant, Reid and Brown this weekend, Collingwood is likely to go with young 204cm defender Lachlan Keefe as the main matchup for Schulz. Schulz to me is the most dangerous of the port forwards, he is experienced enough to take advantage of any lapses in the defensive structure, and the young Pie defender will have to be on his game to ensure the ex Tiger doesn’t hurt the Pies too much.
Midfield vs Midfield.
The depth in both midfields’ seems fairly strong, with Luke Ball the most obvious out for Collingwood, and Port looking at fielding as close to a full strength midfield as they have in several years. Collingwood will be relying on star midfielder Scott Pendlebury bouncing back after his poorest game in years last week, and the likes of Wellingham, Swan, Sidebottom and Beams will also be called upon to assist. Port, as mentioned above in my analysis have increased their depth, and John McCarthy is sure to give an insight for his fellow Port midfielders regarding any weaknesses in his old team mates abilities that can be exploited. This battle within a battle should be great to watch.
Teams;
Collingwood
B: Harry O’Brien, Lachlan Keeffe, Ben Johnson
HB: Simon Buckley, Nick Maxwell, Tyson Goldsack
C: Dane Swan, Tom Young, Sharrod Wellingham
HF: Jackson Paine, Chris Dawes, Ben Sinclair
F: Dayne Beams, Travis Cloke, Alex Fasolo
Foll: Darren Jolly, Scott Pendlebury, Steele Sidebottom
Int: Martin Clarke, Jarryd Blair, Alan Toovey, Paul Seedsman
Emg: Nathan Brown, Cameron Wood, Kirk Ugle
In: Ben Johnson, Simon Buckley, Jackson Paine, Paul Seedsman, Tom Young
Out: Luke Ball (knee), Ben Reid (quad), Dale Thomas (hamstring), Heath Shaw (hamstring), Cameron Wood (omitted)
Port Adelaide
B: Jacob Surjan, Alipate Carlile, Jackson Trengove
HB: Ben Jacobs, Troy Chaplin, Danyle Pearce
C: Hamish Hartlett, Dominic Cassisi, Kane Cornes
HF: Travis Boak, Justin Westhoff, Robert Gray
F: John Butcher, Jay Schultz, Chad Wingard
Foll: Brent Renouf, Bradley Ebert, John McCarthy
Int: Paul Stewart, Matthew Broadbent, Daniel Stewart, Darren Pfeiffer
Emg: Matt Thomas, Simon Phillips, Aaron Young
In: John Butcher, Brent Renouf, Darren Pfeiffer
Out: Matt Thomas, Jarrad Redden (rested), Cameron O’Shea
New: Brent Renouf (Hawthorn), Darren Pfeiffer
Tip.
While Port Adelaide may have improved from the woeful team they were last year, I still can’t see how they can challenge a top four contending side, even with the injury weakened backline the Magpies will put on the field. Also, the loss to Carlton has to have hit the players hard, and in a week that could almost be described as the “week from hell”, Collingwood’s experienced players will be looking to lift their intensity from the very start of the match.
With the lack of experience down back, Collingwood will have to get their hands on the ball first, and even the loss of Luke Ball, they still have some of the elite midfielders of the competition to call on to do so, and this may prove too much for the Power to contend with over four quarters. Although the late news of the loss of Heath Shaw and Dale Thomas to hamstring injuries has to be of some concern.
Ultimately, Collingwood’s class and experience should see it run out winners, but I’m expecting Port to put up a real fight against a still out of sorts and under strength Magpies line up.
PIES BY 16
VFL
This weekend, the Collingwood VFL side travel to face the Box Hill Hawks, with the game scheduled to start at 1.10pm at Box Hill City Oval on Saturday. Alan Didak is likely to be the biggest name there, with the club suggesting he needs at least one more run in the reserves before returning to senior level. The game is also live on ABC TV into Melbourne and some surrounding areas.
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