THERE’S ONE SPOT LEFT IN THE TOP FOUR, and Collingwood and the West Coast Eagles want it desperately, so it’s fitting that in the penultimate round of the 2012 AFL home and away season the two teams would meet to all but decide who will seal that all important final spot in the top four. You may ask why a top four spot is so important, and the simple answer is that history has shown that it’s almost impossible to win a premiership from outside the top four, with only one side achieving this feat, that being Adelaide in 1998. The Magpies and Eagles come into this game sitting fourth and fifth respectively on the AFL ladder, with the ‘Pies holding a one game lead over their Western Australian rivals, although the Eagles do have the slightly better percentage. No matter what the results are next week, both teams know a win here puts their top four destiny in their own hands, while the loser will have to hope for results to go their way in the final round to sneak into that vital top segment of the AFL final eight.
It was a night to forget for Collingwood last week vs the Kangaroos.
The form of the two clubs has been very inconsistent in recent times though, with both Collingwood and West Coast recording a 4-3 win/loss record over the past seven games, but the biggest surprise has been the way the two premiership contenders have lost their games in that time. West Coast have racked up losses to Sydney (52 points), Adelaide (49) and cross town rival Fremantle (a whopping 65 points) while the boys in Black and White have themselves had some big losses, going down to Carlton (23), Hawthorn (47) and last week North Melbourne by 30 points. That loss last week for the Magpies came after a brave fighting win over the Swans in Sydney, yet Collingwood, despite a fast start against the Kangaroos never really looked like winning, as they wasted the ball and their defensive pressure and efforts just weren’t up to the usual standards expected from head coach Nathan Buckley. The absence of Dane Swan for the second week in a row proved too much also, as some of the ‘Pies midfielders also had off days, especially in terms of their disposal efficiency, which lead to widespread condemnation of the two much maligned forwards, Travis Cloke and Chris Dawes, who failed to kick a goal between them. It was a disaster of a day for Collingwood, as they missed out on a chance to go to the top of the ladder after Brisbane did them a favour by beating Adelaide in a big upset at the same time as the Magpies were being over run by an in form Kangaroos outfit.
The next day, West Coast headed to Adelaide to face the deplorable Port Adelaide Power in a game they really couldn’t lose, and despite eventually winning by 48 points you got the feeling that coach John Worsfold will be wanting a better performance out of his players this week, as at times Port even looked like challenging the Eagles, which would have been embarrassing indeed. The Eagles are almost certain to recall star forward Josh Kennedy this week, and the Eagles will open him back with open arms as he hasn’t played a senior game since way back in round 5. Also in contention for a club debut is ex Collingwood small forward Brad Dick, who returned home to WA last year after a terrible run with injuries, and has gradually found some form in the VFL culminating in a 6 goal performance for East Fremantle last weekend.
Collingwood will welcome back Dane Swan after a club imposed 2 week suspension.
Collingwood will go into this game with selection questions of their own, and with injury concerns over several key players there may be as many as 5 changes for the Magpies this week. In contention to return are Ben Johnson, Andrew Krakouer, Dane Swan (a certainty), Alan Toovey and Tyson Goldsack, and if the Magpies can even get 3-4 of those up they will field a stronger and more experienced line up than the one that faced the Kangaroos last Saturday Night. The injury concerns are of particular concern though, with captain Nick Maxwell struggling with a hip injury that saw him subbed out in the game last weekend. Also battling are Darren Jolly and Scott Pendlebury, with the latter suffering a knock to the knee at training on Wednesday, that sent shock-waves through the camp, although he trained on afterwards. Young Irish recruit Caolan Mooney injured his ankle last week after being bought on for Maxwell, and will miss 2-3 weeks, effectively ending his season. But the Magpies will be confident getting on a plane this weekend, as the last nine times the Pies have travelled they have returned with a win, including just two weeks ago against a very strong Sydney Swans outfit in a classic encounter, and they also have a very good record at Subiaco, especially in recent seasons. It’s as important of a fixture as Collingwood has faced all year, and the great interstate winning streak added to the fact they haven’t lost two games in a row in a long time means they will be a very formidable opponent for the Eagles on Saturday Night.
Opposition Analysis.
The West Coast Eagles machine has spluttered in recent weeks, with the aforementioned three heavy losses resulting in the once ladder leading Eagles falling out of the top four into fifth position on the AFL ladder. But there is time to stop that free fall, and this weeks game is the one that will ultimately decide where the Eagles finish in 2012 after the home and away season, or at least put their fate in their own hands. It hasn’t been the fact that the Eagles have lost three games, it’s more the margin in those three losses, with an average losing margin of 55 points the alarm bells have to be ringing at Eagles headquarters. The win over Geelong two weeks ago, in an absolute classic, intense filled game at least gave the Eagles some confidence, and an easy win last weekend over Port gives them one last chance at a top four finish. Welcoming back Josh Kennedy will help the Eagles forward line, but it’s been their midfield and backline that have struggled in recent times, so even the return of Kennedy may not remedy all the problems facing the Eagles.
Scott Selwood led the way for the Eagles midfield last week against Port.
The Eagles midfield is usually seen as their strength, especially this year, but in recent times it seems that Dean Cox may just be struggling as the season endures, and the likes of Kerr and Priddis have had their influence restricted by opposition teams, especially during the bad performances by the Eagles. This midfield is struggling, it has fallen to 11th in the league for contested possessions, and has also dropped to 10th for clearances, and when you consider the ruck dominance that the Eagles have over most sides, those figures are damning and a great indication as to why the Eagles may well be facing an elimination final in two weeks time. But there have been positives, as Scott Selwood, Andrew Gaff and Chris Masten have lifted their output to know be in the top 5 in total possessions at the club, taking some of the pressure away from the aging Kerr, Priddis and Embley. The Eagles will look to dominate the ruck against Collingwood, especially if Darren Jolly doesn’t play, and it has to be the ruck duo of Cox and Natanui that gives their side first use of the ball at stoppages for them to have any chance of out performing the ever strong and very deep Collingwood midfield.
The Eagles defense is still strong, but even a good defense needs help from it’s midfield, and in recent times you almost couldn’t blame the Eagles backline for giving up some big scores as the side was easily beaten out of the middle by some top sides. Darren Glass still leads the way down back, and is an All Australian contender for the full back position, as the ever durable Eagles captain has marshalled his defense in brilliant fashion while still being able to restrict most of the games best forwards on a weekly basis. This week he will no doubt start on Travis Cloke, in a matchup that will be vital to the final result for sure. Assisting Glass down back has been Eric McKenzie and Will Schofield in key positions, while the return of Beau Waters from injury and the run and drive that Shannon Hurn provides has seen the Eagles backline more than perform as expected in 2012, in fact the Eagles sit fifth for least points conceded, and would probably sit higher if not for those recent losses.
Josh Kennedy will be a welcome addition to a struggling Eagles forward line.
If the Eagles have a real concern though, it would be their forward line, and it’s inability to put up big scores when required. Yes, some of the blame lays with the midfield and the form and frequency with which the ball is delivered but the West Coast forward line has struggled this year, especially recently, and there of course is a reason why. If any AFL sides forward line suffered long term injuries to players of the calibre of Mark Lecras, Mark Nicoski and Josh Kennedy they too would have trouble to adapt and survive, yet the Eagles are still hanging in there, and will get Kennedy back just in time. The two positives for the Eagles up forward this year have been ex Bulldog Josh Hill, who in his first season has booted 31 goals so far, and young forward Jack Darling, who has lifted his game to yet another level and currently sits on 43 goals in 2012. Outside of that though there has been an unhealthy reliance on the midfield brigade and two gun ruckman to kick their goals, and while that was working for them early on, as the midfield supply has dried up a little so has the impact the midfield has had on the scoreboard. Kennedy’s return will make them stronger though, even if he has little impact on the scoreboard this week he will demand a top class defender at all times, which may allow another forward to slip under the radar and hurt the Magpies on Saturday Night.
Surely the Eagles will be approaching this game as their most important game in a long time, as a win here would give them a chance of salvaging a top four spot despite a poor run with injuries and a recent drop in form, something would be seen as a great achievement by John Worsfold and his playing group. The Eagles will welcome back Kennedy, and Brad Dick will be considered, and Matt Rosa is also available for selection this week, giving West Coast some choice as to who to bring in to replace some of the players whose form has dropped off over recent weeks. The atmosphere inside Subiaco at night will help the Eagles lift, but ultimately it comes down to whether or not the side can deliver and perform consistently over four quarters, because nothing less will result in a win against an equally desperate and determined Collingwood outfit.
Teams;
Collingwood
B: Chris Tarrant, Harry O’Brien, Nathan Brown
HB: Ben Johnson, Ben Reid, Alan Toovey
C: Sharrod Wellingham, Dane Swan, Jarryd Blair
HF: Scott Pendlebury, Chris Dawes, Heath Shaw
F: Dale Thomas, Travis Cloke, Steele Sidebottom
Foll: Cameron Wood, Ben Sinclair, Dayne Beams
Int: Alan Didak, Alex Fasolo, Tyson Goldsack, Paul Seedsman
Emg: Marty Clarke, Josh Thomas, Kirk Ugle
IN: Tyson Goldsack, Ben Johnson, Dane Swan, Alan Toovey, Cameron Wood
OUT: Jamie Elliott (groin), Darren Jolly (general soreness), Nick Maxwell (groin), Caolan Mooney (ankle), Marty Clarke (omitted)
West Coast
B: Beau Waters, Darren Glass, Sam Butler
HB: Shannon Hurn, Eric Mackenzie, Will Schofield
C: Matt Rosa, Matt Priddis, Andrew Gaff
HF: Josh Hill, Jack Darling, Patrick McGinnity
F: Chris Masten, Josh Kennedy, Nic Naitanui
Foll: Dean Cox, Scott Selwood, Luke Shuey
Int: Andrew Embley, Daniel Kerr, Quinten Lynch, Adam Selwood
Emg: Andrew Strijk, Ashton Hams, Jacob Brennan
IN: Sam Butler, Josh Kennedy, Matthew Rosa
OUT: Jacob Brennan, Bradd Dalziell, Ashton Hams
Tip.
This game will mirror that of the Collingwood vs Sydney game a few weeks back, in that it will have a finals like intensity to it, and rightfully so. The last time these two sides met, back in round 13 at the MCG, the Eagles just fell short as they charged at the Magpies late, but with an extra days rest once would assume that it will be the Magpies finishing this game the better this time around. The return of big names like Kennedy, Rosa, Swan and Johnson will ensure the quality on the field for both sides is above that of what they have fielded recently, which only adds to the enticing matchup we have in front of us. Question marks over several star Magpies, and maybe some Eagles as well will ensure we won’t know the final 22 until just before game time, and the final selection may have as big of an impact on the final result as anything else.
This game should be just as tough and hard fought as the round 13 game between the two teams earlier in the season.
The Eagles will look to break away early here, getting the crowd into the game and ensuring the Collingwood representatives on the terraces are drowned out in a manner that rarely happens, no matter where the Magpies play. However, if Collingwood can stay with the Eagles for the first three quarters, I’d expect the extra days rest, and the ability of Collingwood to win the close games to just get the Magpies over the line in yet another close win for the Black and White army.
Pies by 9.
VFL
The Collingwood VFL team plays their final game of the 2012 season this Saturday, as they host Werribee at Victoria Park, with the game starting at 1pm. It’s been a disappointing season results wise for the VFL team, but the development of many young players has put the win/loss ratio in perspective.
SportsMatt 