It doesn’t get much bigger than this, as Collingwood and Carlton prepare to take on each other with a finals spot very much on the line at the MCG on Friday Night. The Collingwood vs Carlton rivalry is the stuff of legend, it’s the greatest and most storied rivalry in any sporting league in Australia and this week it will add another chapter to it’s long and famous history. That history goes all the way back to the 1910 season and has continued to be as bitter, intense and as meaningful to this very day. The latest bit of spice was added at the end of last season with the addition of Mick Malthouse, Collingwood’s last premiership coach, as Carlton’s head coach for 2013. Malthouse’ arrival at Carlton was meant to see the club rise up the ladder but so far this season not much has changed, as the Blues find themselves currently sitting 9th, two places behind the 8th place side, which so happens to be Collingwood. That alone shows how important this game is for both clubs as a Pies win might all but secure the final 8 for the 2013 season, while a Blues win would leave the Magpies as the most vulnerable team in the top 8 after 15 rounds.
RECENT FORM;
The form of both teams over the entirety of this season can be summed up in one word, frustrating. Both clubs have had their fair share of injuries but it’s been the performances against the top sides in the competition that would frustrate their fans the most. Carlton have pushed many of the top sides to the limit, without winning, while the Magpies have been smashed by just about every top 8 side they have played, with one remarkable exception when they defeated Geelong at the MCG in round 8. The teams respective form is frustrating because at their best, or near it, they have shown they can compete with the elite outfits in the competition yet both have failed to deliver more often than not in 2013 so far.
The Blues lost to Sydney in terrible conditions last week.
Carlton haven’t won a game in over a month, and even that last win was over the almost irrelevant GWS Giants, yet you could say they are in better form than the Magpies. The three losses in that period have been to Essendon (5 points), Hawthorn (15 points) and last week Sydney (22 points). While those are quality football sides that Carlton has been competing with, the three losses in a row have placed Carlton on the precipices of dropping out of finals contention and have made this game a must win game for the Blues. Last week against the Swans, Carlton was outplayed for the first three quarters in terrible conditions before making a late run at Sydney, only for the reigning premiers to kick away and record a 22 point win. The usual suspects in Judd, Gibbs and Simpson led the way in the midfield but once again their forward line struggled to put the score on the board, something that has been a major problem so far in 2013. Carlton aren’t in bad form, but it’s hard to judge how well they are going until they play a similar rated team, and this week we get to see that occur.
Collingwood’s form on paper may look better than Carlton’s with three wins in their last four games, but last weekend the Pies season really was put under pressure with a poor performance against Port Adelaide that resulted in a 35 point loss. The final margin of 35 points flattered the Magpies as they put in their worst four quarter performance of the year, although Port have to be given some credit for a stunning performance. There weren’t too many positives on the night but Ben Sinclair and Paul Seedsman showed they are starting to claim positions in the best 22 with good games in a heavy team loss. The Pies simply aren’t playing anywhere near their potential at the moment, even with the long injury list they have and they’ll have to lift if they are to beat Carlton this week.
COLLINGWOOD PREVIEW;
The Magpies are struggling, that’s pretty clear to see and the media are having a field day, making up rumours about in fighting and questioning Nathan Buckley’s ability as senior coach, but that’s to be expected when it comes to Collingwood. Before the Pies had the bye it looked like they may have been getting back on track but when they were put back in their place by Port on Saturday night it really was time for the whole club to take a good hard look at themselves. This game is massive for Collingwood, not only is against their oldest rival, but a win here would all but secure an 8th straight finals appearance, which would be a decent achievement given all the problems they have endured so far this season. To defeat Carlton though they will need to improve their performance, and the return of several key players this week should boost the club significantly. In the seniors, Ben Reid, Andrew Krakouer and Clinton Young should be big ins, while in the VFL Tyson Goldsack and Dayne Beams have been confirmed as starters on Saturday out at Box Hill.
The return of Beams and Young for the firs time this season will give the whole club a boost, and while Beams and Goldsack may still be a week or two away from a senior recall it’s a good news story all around, finally. There’s the good news, but unfortunately there’s still plenty of negatives at Collingwood with a midfield that is getting well beaten most weeks, a defense that hasn’t been at it’s best so far this season leaking goals, and a forward line that still relies too heavily on just one man, Travis Cloke. Surely this week there will be a selection move involving the struggling Quinten Lynch, whether that’s the inclusion of a genuine ruckman to allow Lynch to play forward permanently or an omission for the ex Eagle, something has to change.
Lynch’s best game for the Magpies however did come against Carlton in round two when Darren Jolly went down injured early on and Lynch rucked manfully for the rest of the game with little assistance. Something has to change though or else the Magpies risk losing their first back to back games in season 2013.
OPPOSITION ANALYSIS;
Carlton came into the 2013 season expecting to play finals yet here we are at round 15 and a position in the 8 seems as unlikely as it has all season. The Blues have been losing to some classy sides but wins in this league is what it’s all about and unfortunately Carlton also lost to some less than stellar teams earlier on in the season. There is still hope for them though as a win here would move them within a game of the 8th placed Magpies and reignite their chances of playing finals football under Mick Malthouse in his first year. Malthouse himself has been seen to be showing significant strain recently and if the Blues can’t get over the Pies that may only multiply. Carlton will be hoping to get Marc Murphy and Andrew Carrazzo back this week which will be a boost for a team that has just failed to notch a win over several top sides recently.
Carlton’s midfield is it’s strength, there’s no doubting that, and it’s easy to see why when you look at the talent they possess. Led by Judd, Murphy, Gibbs, Simpson and Carrazzo and ably assisted by Robinson, Mclean, Yarran, Walker and Tuohy the Carlton midfield is as good as any in the competition when they have all their players up and running, which is probable this week. The Blues rank 3rd for contested possessions and 4th for clearances while the Magpies sit 13th and 15th respectively in those categories. If the Blues are to win this game they have to dominate in the middle and that includes the ruck, where Matthew Kreuzer has supposedly been struggling a little bit, although the stats show a different story with Carlton ranked 5th for hitouts so far in 2013. Collingwood, as is commonly known are ranked 18th, and will probably be without their number one ruckman in Darren Jolly again this Friday night. Carlton should win the midfield battle quite easily one would assume.
The Blues have an unhealthy reliance on Waite and Garlett up forward.
The Carlton forward line gets a steady supply from a strong midfield and half back group so you’d think they’d be one of the more efficient and effective forward set-ups in the AFL yet they only sit 8th on the total points score for table so far this season. One of the reasons, just like Collingwood, is accuracy, or more so a lack of it. The Pies and Blues sit in the bottom 4 for accuracy at goal in 2013 and it’s all got to do with an unhealthy reliance on one tall forward and a group of smalls. Carlton’s reliance is on Waite, Collingwood’s is on Cloke, and both teams really do lack for another scoring option over the old 6 foot height level. The Blues may have the more dangerous small forwards in Betts, Garlett and Yarran but so far this season only Garlett has performed at a level that the club desires, with 27 goals to lead the club’s goal kicking tally. In fact Waite and Garlett are the only two Carlton players who average over 2 goals a game this season, leaving many wondering what the Blues will do at the end of the season to improve this area of the ground. You’d expect this game to be a high scoring affair but with the accuracy of both sides don’t be shocked if the winner ends up with a tally under 100 points, and with more points than goals on both sides of the scoreboard.
The Blues backline has been much maligned over the past few years and that has continued on this season, but realistically it’s a grouping that under Mick Malthouse has improved. Carlton sit seventh for points conceded and when you consider their ladder position that’s a very decent effort indeed. Lachlan Henderson has been one that has improved under Malthouse’ tutelage and has now become the most reliable defender in the Blues defensive half. Michael Jamison is Henderson’s key position partner down back and together then form an adequate pairing that will be able to keep an eye on Cloke and Lynch this weekend. Lynch of course hasn’t been hurting sides on the scoreboard but if allowed to get loose can deliver the ball quickly and accurately to Cloke, and one out the big Pie forward is nigh on unbeatable. Carlton are provided with decent ball movement out of the backline also with Yarran, Simpson, Tuohy and Walker all accurate users of the ball. This is the are of the ground that Carlton will have to try and break even in if they are to win because it’s likely the Blues will have more forward entries at the other end than the Pies.
If Carlton get Murphy and Carrazzo back this weekend they will go into this game with a confidence that haven’t had since their last win against GWS over a month ago. Their midfield should be able to get on top of a Pies midfield still missing the likes of Thomas and Beams but Carlton’s problem still exists and that’s putting the score on the board. It’s likely Carlton will win more clearances, have more inside forward 50’s and therefore more shots at goal but can they convert under the pressure of a must win game, that’s the question for sure.
TEAMS;
Carlton
B: Mitch Robinson, Michael Jamison, Lachie Henderson
HB: Zach Tuohy, Andrew McInnes, Bryce Gibbs
C: Kane Lucas, Chris Judd, Kade Simpson
HF: Ed Curnow, Andrew Walker, Jeff Garlett
F: Brock McLean, Jarrad Waite, Matthew Kreuzer
Foll: Levi Casboult, Eddie Betts, Jaryd Cachia
Int: Marc Murphy, Chris Yarran, Andrew Carrazzo, Dennis Armfield
Emerg: Nick Graham, Sam Rowe, Simon White
In: A.Carrazzo, M.Murphy, A.McInnes
Out: S.White, J.Bootsma (hamstring) , H.Scotland (adductor)
Collingwood
B: Nathan Brown, Nick Maxwell, Ben Reid
HB: Clinton Young, Heath Shaw, Marley Williams
C: Steele Sidebottom, Brent Macaffer, Luke Ball
HF: Jamie Elliott, Jarrod Witts, Dane Swan
F: Ben Kennedy, Travis Cloke, Josh Thomas
Foll: Ben Hudson, Scott Pendlebury, Jarryd Blair
Int: Andrew Krakouer, Ben Sinclair, Paul Seedsman, Sam Dwyer
Emerg: Martin Clarke, Kyle Martin, Jordan Russell
In: A.Krakouer, B.Reid, C.Young, J.Witts
Out: Q.Lynch (back), H.O’Brien (ankle), J.Russell, K.Martin
TIP;
When these two sides met in round 2 they had vastly different targets in regards to final ladder position than they do now, but they are stuck where they are and this game is crucial because of that fact. Collingwood can effectively remove Carlton as a threat to them this season with a win here and with the return of Reid, Young and Krakouer the Pies will be a much better outfit than the one that lost to Port last start. That Blues midfield is stacked though and with no Beams and Thomas it’s going to be a close game throughout you’d think with neither team probably capable of blowing the other team away. The loss of Harry O’Brien also hurts the Pies, although it is offset by the club debut of ex Hawk Clinton Young.
The Pies haven’t lost two games in a row all season and I expect that trend to continue this Friday night in front of a big crowd at the MCG.
Pies by 11 Points.
SportsMatt 