The Collingwood Football Club seems to be finding some form in as we head into the final 7 rounds of the 2013 home and away season. With successive wins over two teams sitting just outside the top eight, Carlton and Adelaide, the Pies are now poised for an assault on a vital top four spot. This week though they face yet another team that has dropped out of finals contention recently, the Gold Coast Suns at Metricon Stadium on Saturday Afternoon. The Suns have improved in 2013 to currently sit with a 5 win and 10 loss record although that looked a lot better 4 weeks back. They have lost 4 games in a row and those losses have ended the dream of the Gold Coast playing finals in only their third season. These two clubs have only played each other twice in the regular season before, with the Magpies winning both games comfortably. The Magpies recorded a 97 point win last year at the MCG and a 54 point win on the Gold Coast in the Suns first season. Yes, there isn’t much history between these two but if the young talent on each teams’ list is anything to go by they will create some history, maybe starting on Saturday afternoon.
PREVIOUS FORM
Gary Ablett did his best to lift the Suns last week in a loss to the Tigers.
The Suns were one of the surprises of the season a few weeks back as they sat close to the top eight with a 5-6 win/loss record, but 4 losses in a row have set them back a little. Their last two games showed that they are still competitive, but that they are now struggling to get over the line and win. Last week against the Tigers, in Cairns, the Suns tried hard all day but despite a late surge they lost to Richmond by 9 points. The conditions in Cairns were woeful as the final score was a combined total of 12 goals and 25 behinds. The week before in the “Q Clash” against fellow Queenslanders the Brisbane Lions, the Suns struggled throughout and subsequently lost by 33 points, although the Lions did finish the game off well to extend the score a little beyond what was a true indication of the match. The Suns are no longer the easy beats they were in their first two seasons, but their recent form has to be a worry, although they do get to return to the fortress that is Metricon Stadium this Saturday.
Collingwood may be back in form, although it’s a little hard to tell as this is the “easy” part of their 2013 home and away draw at the moment. Since a poor loss to Port Adelaide after the bye, the Magpies have notched up wins over Carlton and Adelaide at the MCG, both on Friday nights, to re-establish themselves within reaching distance of the top echelon on the AFL ladder. Last week’s win over Adelaide wasn’t was easy as the Carlton win though, as the Crows had their last crack at keeping their finals chances alive, and they fought hard until Scott Pendelbury and Dayne Beams lifted to get the Magpies over the line. The return of Beams, and more so the way he assisted the midfield would have bought a tear to a Pies fan eye, as it’s Beams who last year carried this side to a preliminary final, and on his return he showed how and why. Even head coach Nathan Buckley admitted that he probably was going to sub him off, but he was simply getting better as the game went on and you couldn’t ignore that, or afford to take him off. With Beams now back in the side, the Pies have one of the most formidable mid-fields in the AFL and they can now worry the better teams once their draw gets tougher.
COLLINGWOOD PREVIEW
There was good and bad news last week for Collingwood as their notched up yet another win and saw a successful return for Dayne Beams, but in the dying seconds of the game an injury occurred that will hurt the Pies. Ex Hawk Clinton Young lunged to make a tackle only for his hamstring to once again go on him and the long kicking half back will be missing for at least the next month. Young had only just returned, and was only playing his second game for his new club. Harry O’Brien would be the perfect replacement for Young but it has been announced that he won’t play again this weekend. Without those two, it will fall to the youngsters such as Sam Dwyer, Paul Seedsman and Marley Williams to provide plenty of pace and attack themselves. Still, the Magpies major problem seems to be an inability to defend on the counter attack, as just about every time they turned the ball over or the Crows won it quickly out of their defensive zone, the Pies were caught out in defense and it led to a scoring opportunity. The other problem the Magpies have had for most of the season is assistance for gun forward Travis Cloke up forward, and while Ben Reid going forward has helped in the past few weeks, it will be interesting to see if Reid continues to be used up forward or if Quinten Lynch will return against the Suns.
Ben Johnson announced his retirement from the game during the week.
Along with Lynch the likes of Marty Clarke, Kyle Martin, Lachlan Keeffe, Brodie Grundy and Tyson Goldsack will be pushing for inclusion, although no VFL game last weekend hurts the chances of most of those players. Buckley is slowly and surely building the side and game plan that he wants to, and there are signs that the youngsters in the group are getting to the point where they are earning their place on ability, not just potential. This weekend the Pies face one of the best young groups in the AFL, and it will be interesting to see how some of the young Pies go against some of the more highly rated Gold Coast youngsters.
A thought has to go out this week though to Ben Johnson, as the 235 Magpie champion called it a day due to injuries. Johnson, a Magpies supporter growing up, bled black and white for this club and his long left foot goals that lifted the Magpie army to it’s feet will be greatly missed. There were emotional scenes at the club as his best mates, such as Dane Swan and Alan Didak gave speeches about the man, and the player. Johnson was a vital part of the 2010 Premiership side and as so is an immortal in the eyes of most Collingwood fans. We will miss you Johnno but thank you from the bottom of our hearts for everything you have done for this great club.
OPPOSITION ANALYSIS
We all know the Gold Coast Suns are still a developing team, having only been in the competition for just over two full seasons, yet at times last year they were thought to be highly underachieving. Before their round 16 game against the Tigers, they hadn’t won a game, yet by round 11 this season they had won 8 of their last 19 games. The Suns sat on the edge of the eight with a 5-6 record and some were even suggesting that the upstarts from the Gold Coast might play finals. Since then however, they have lost 4 straight games, but despite that it’s clear to see this group of players has a massive future leading forward. Yes, they are led by maybe the league’s best player in Gary Ablett Jnr but they also seem to have recruited well to fill gaps over the past season or so. The Suns are on a rise and when you break down their lines you can see why.
The Suns midfield would have to be their strength and it’s not only because of that one man Ablett. Ablett is a star, a champion midfielder no doubt, but it’s the assistance he is getting this year that has made the Suns a better team. This year the Suns finally got to play the much hyper Jaeger O’Meara and from minute one you can just tell the kid was going to be a star. Add the likes of Prestia, Harbrow, Shaw, Swallow and Bennell and you have a midfield rotation that is getting close to being one of the best in the league, and may well be in that category as early as next season. The Suns sit sixth for clearances and seventh in contested possessions which is a sign of just how far this midfield has come so far this season. The Suns lost their number one ruckman Zac Smith to a season ending knee injury but what a replacement they have in Thomas Nicholls who this week was awarded with a rising star nomination for his work in the past few weeks. The Suns, like the Pies are ranked lowly in the hit out category but it’s what Nicholls does after the ruck contests that shows his potential to be a star. The midfield battle is almost worst the price of admission alone, because you simply have some of the best players in the AFL going head to head.
Aaron Hall has been trying hard this season up forward.
The Suns forward line has been their biggest problem this season though, with injuries to key players like Dixon, Lynch, Matera and Smith they really have struggled to score when going forward. The fact they are the most inaccurate team in the league when shooting for goal says a lot about their lack of key position players in the forward line. It is one area that you would suggest coach Guy Mckenna will look to improve at the end of the season. There is still some talent up forward though and Charlie Dixon is an outside chance to return this week against Collingwood, which would help them significantly. The Suns don’t have one player who has kicked over 20 goals this year and Campbell Brown and Aaron Hall have been the most effective of the forwards with 17 goals each. Gary Ablett sits one goal above them on the goal tally though, which isn’t a shock but is a sign of how they have struggled to find goal kickers in 2013. Losing Zac Smith hurt the set up too as he and Nicholls would have been able to swap in the ruck and up forward so it’s really been a terribly unlucky year for the Suns up forward. This week they face a Pies defense that is suspect on the counter attack so there’s little doubt that the Suns will try to exploit Collingwood with a fast moving forward line.
The Suns backline is still a developing group but it has sorely missed the services of it’s leader, Nathan Bock who is close to returning after several weeks in the NEAFL after missing so much football after that terrible injury he suffered last season. The absence of Bock has allowed the Suns to get plenty of game time into Rory Thompson at centre half back while Matthew Warnock has been the rock at full back and has held up well. What the Suns don’t lack is run out of defense with Harbrow, Mckenzie, Broughton and Tape all giving plenty of fast ball movement out of defense. Mckenzie is now famous for that booming left foot and against a side like Collingwood where you have to move the ball quickly, he will be vital this week. Depending on who the Pies play up forward the Suns may have trouble lining up on a third tall though, but with Bock close to returning that problem will be solved soon.
The Suns have improved, that’s clear for everyone to see and the addition of the likes of Nicholls and O’Meara have been a large part of that. They need to notch up a few more wins though before the season is over, although their last 4 games are very winnable against sides currently below them on the ladder. At the moment though they have to contend with Collingwood and then Carlton at home, and they do have some players returning from injury finally. Bock, Hunt and Dixon may not play this week but they aren’t far away from returning. The almost certain return of Warnock will assist their backline but beyond that there are several players who may come in, or go out of the Suns line up. Whichever side they pick it will have to be more accurate up forward than they have been recently, that’s for sure.
TEAMS
Collingwood
B: Nathan Brown, Nick Maxwell, Ben Reid
HB: Tyson Goldsack, Heath Shaw, Marley Williams
C: Steele Sidebottom, Brent Macaffer, Luke Ball
HF: Jamie Elliott, Jarrod Witts, Dane Swan
F: Dayne Beams, Travis Cloke, Josh Thomas
Foll: Ben Hudson, Scott Pendlebury, Andrew Krakouer
Int: Ben Sinclair, Paul Seedsman, Sam Dwyer, Caolan Mooney
Emg: Lachlan Keeffe, Ben Kennedy, Adam Oxley
IN: Tyson Goldsack, Caolan Mooney
OUT: Jarryd Blair (calf), Clinton Young (hamstring)
ROUND 17 AFL Premiership Senior Team
B: T. McKenzie, S. Day, S. Tape
HB: G. Broughton, R. Thompson, J. Harbrow
C: M. Shaw, G. Ablett, L. Russell
HF: A. Boston, S. May, A. Hall
F: C. Brown, J. Hall, J. Brennan
R: T. Nicholls, D. Stanley, J. O’Meara
INT: D. Prestia, M. Weller, H. Bennell, A. Sexton
Emergencies: J. Gillbee, M. Weller, T. Murphy
In: Weller, Sexton
Out: Swallow (knee), Murphy (omit)
TIP
Collingwood need to win this game, it’s one of those games that they could lose but simply can’t afford to. The Suns on the other hand were close to a win last week in Cairns and will return home knowing they need to notch some wins soon to keep their upward trend going leading into next season. The home ground advantage has started to grow for the Suns this year with 3 of their 5 wins coming on the Metricon Stadium turf. That’s their hope, that after a few weeks on the road they can return and play near their best on their home ground against a Pies side that still isn’t playing it’s absolute best football.
The Magpies midfield can match the Suns strength though, and should be able to dominate when it gets the ball forward. It’s in attack that the Suns need to exploit the Magpies but I just can’t see it happening with that forward line a mess at the moment. Collingwood should notch up a win here, although it won’t be easy.
PIES BY 19 POINTS.
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