It is getting towards the business end of the 2013 AFL home and away season and two clubs that are in desperate need of a win will face off on Sunday at the MCG. Collingwood will host Essendon in a game that will see a crowd in excess of 80,000 turn up to watch two probable finalists go head to head. Collingwood need the win to secure an 8th straight finals appearance while the Bombers are still in the hunt for a top four spot, despite some patchy form of late. Essendon currently sits in 4th, just two premiership points clear of Fremantle but also only 2 points behind Sydney in third. It’s that tight in that region of the ladder that any two of those teams could finish top four still along with Geelong and Hawthorn. Collingwood currently sit 7th on the ladder, a little lower than desired for sure but still a fairly safe two games clear of the team in 9th spot, Carlton. The problem that Magpies face is that in the final 5 rounds their draw is about as tough as it gets, with games against Sydney and Hawthorn following this matchup. The Pies probably need 2 more wins to fully secure a finals position so a win in this game would make everyone at the Westpac Centre feel a lot safer than they are at the moment.
PREVIOUS FORM
The Hawks outplayed the Bombers in just about every facet of the game.
It’s been a crazy year to be an Essendon fan with the ACC and ASADA investigation ongoing yet on field the team has given their fans more enjoyment than they have had for a decade. Not since 2001 has Essendon been a top four quality team on the field. The last few weeks though, without inspirational captain and probably their best player, Jobe Watson, the Bombers performances have dropped off a little. Wins over the lowly Western Bulldogs and GWS Giants disguised the form slump but then they read head on into Hawthorn last Friday night and no one was left in any doubt regarding where the Bombers stand on field without Watson. The Hawks dismantled every part of the Essendon team to come away with an emphatic 56 point win. It leaves the Bombers on the edge of the top four fighting for those last two spots with Fremantle and Sydney. The one thing in Essendon’s favour is a slightly easier draw in the final 5 games. Essendon have had some players still performing at a high level though in Watson’s absence with Brendan Goddard and Dyson Heppell consistently name in the best players, even in the loss last week. One statistic that shows how the absence of Watson is hurting the Bombers is that since he hurt his shoulder/collarbone in the first quarter against Port Adelaide, they have been outscored more from stoppages than any other team in the AFL. They need him back.
Collingwood are still struggling, as shown by the first half of last week’s game against the GWS Giants. At half time of that game the Pies trailed a side that is yet to win a game this year by 3 goals and even at three quarter time only held a 2 point lead. While a six goal to zero last quarter made the scoreline seem one sided, it was once again a performance that was below expectations again for Collingwood. Coming off that disastrous loss to the Gold Coast Suns the week before the Magpies were expected to come out fired up but it was Giants full forward Jeremy Cameron who stole the show with 7 of his sides 10 goals, including 4 in the first quarter. The Magpies played Ben Reid forward for the whole game, which left the backline exposed as expected. It is doubtful Reid will start forward this week you’d think after that display from Cameron. There were some promising signs for the Magpies though with youngster Marley Williams playing so well that he earned the round 18 Rising Star nomination. Also a lot of Magpie fans got their first glimpse at Brodie Grundy and the first round draft pick didn’t let them down, as the young ruckman showed his aggressive style in his debut game. Collingwood are still a work in progress, but if they want to be doing any damage come finals time they will have to improve their consistency or face an early exit in September.
COLLINGWOOD PREVIEW
Collingwood need to find some form soon or risk being eliminated either before the finals even begin or in week one of this years finals series. Their recent form has been inconsistent to say the least, with strong wins over Carlton and Adelaide followed by probably the two worst performances of the year against the two expansion teams. The loss to the Gold Coast hurt, and not only that it placed pressure on the whole club to perform. Yet the players backed that up with another lacklustre effort against the easy beats of the competition last week. The first half was woeful and the second half only produced good football in bursts, which actually isn’t how the Pies have played their best periods of football in 2013. This week Collingwood at least has some hope of improvement in the form of players returning from injury. Darren Jolly, Quinten Lynch, Ben Hudson, Luke Ball and Paul Seedsman are all likely to be fit to play on Sunday which for once means coach Nathan Buckley has a selection head ache of a good kind. Jolly may be the most important of those players though as the Pies have really struggled in the ruck in 2013, and despite some negativity from the fans he is still the clear number one ruckman at the club. There is some concern over Ben Reid and Lachlan Keeffe though as they both sustained injuries late in the game versus GWS, although the extent of those injuries is unknown at the moment.
To even be competitive with Essendon this week, let alone defeat them the Magpies will have to get back to somewhere near their best football, or at least the level they were at against the Blues and Crows. When playing their best football the Magpies players place an intense amount of pressure on the ball carrier and move the ball quickly, and it was both these aspects that were missing over the last two weeks. The inclusion of Ball and Seedsman will help that side of their game a little bit, but also the Magpies will have to be more efficient when going forward. In the games Collingwood has lost to Port Adelaide and Gold Coast recently, inaccuracy at vital times has cost them any chance of winning the game, and against a top 4 calibre team like Essendon any missed opportunity will hurt. Part of the reason for that inaccuracy is unhealthy reliance on Travis Cloke up forward, and a lack of other scoring options. The Pie sit 14th for accuracy at goal, it’s a statistic that will have to improve over the coming weeks if they are to avoid a three game losing streak against three of the top 5 teams.
OPPOSITION ANALYSIS
It’s been a tumultuous year for the Bombers in so many ways, with the unanswered questions surrounding the ASADA and ACC drug use investigation hanging over the clubs head for most of this year. Off field the club may be in the middle of it’s greatest controversy in it’s history, but on field the players and coaching staff have delivered to a level that most find astounding given the circumstances. Usually when a club goes through a controversy of this magnitude it falls apart on the field too, yet this season Essendon are exceeding even their own expectations and currently sit 4th on the ladder after 18 rounds. The off season recruitment of the biggest free agent on the market, Brendan Goddard was always going to help a side lacking big game experience, and he hasn’t let them down at all. At times Goddard has strengthened the backline but it’s the partnership he’s formed with Watson, Stanton and Heppell in the midfield that has Essendon on track to finish top four. The Bombers now have very few weaknesses on the park, something that hasn’t been said about them for a decade.
The Essendon midfield has been immense this season, and shown by statistical rankings of 3rd for centre clearances, 7th for total clearances, 3rd for inside 50’s and 7th in hitouts. Of course with names like Watson, Stanton, Goddard, Heppell, Hocking and a rotation of quality ruckman it’s no surprise to see the Bombers rank that highly, although as mentioned before they have dropped off a little bit since their captain got injured. The Bombers will be hoping he returns, and on the other hand that Pies ruckman Darren Jolly doesn’t, as the Magpies have been convincingly beaten in the ruck in most games this season but especially when the two time premiership ruck doesn’t play. Essendon will undoubtedly send Heath Hocking to match up on one of the Pie star midfielders and this is also an advantage the Bombers will have over Collingwood, a proper midfield tagger. In the past few weeks Scott Pendlebury’s influence has been restricted by effective tags and he is the most likely target for Hocking. The Bombers will need to dominate this area and will look to improve on a midfield performance last week that was maybe their worst of the season so far.
Tom Bellchambers has had a great year in 2013.
The Essendon forward line is very effective, currently sitting 3rd for both accuracy and total points, but of course that is always helped by also being ranked 3rd for inside 50’s. The Bombers have 9 players this year that have effectively impacted the scoreboard (13 goals or more) but it’s Crameri, Bellchambers and Hurley that have been the main stays of one of the best forwards lines in the competition this season. Crameri should return this week and Scott Gumbleton has been impressing in the VFL so he may get another chance in place of gun youngster Joe Daniher. Tom Bellchambers has been the stand out of the forward set-up though as he has managed 24 goals so far this season while also playing that secondary ruck role so well. Essendon will look to move the ball quickly inside 50 to create as many one on one matchups as possible as it’s clear that the Magpies defense is vulnerable on the counter attack. Fitness issues with Ben Reid and Lachlan Keeffe only add to the problem for the Pies but it seems both may still play.
The Bombers backline has struggled in recent years to contain the monster forwards of the AFL and although it has improved somewhat in 2013, Lance Franklin and Jarryd Roughed showed last week that this is still the weakest area of the ground for the Bombers. The run and rebound out of the backline isn’t a concern but the key position defenders are, with some doubt over whether Carlisle and Hurley are better suited down back or forward, with the former spending most of his time down back this season. On most occasions Carlisle, Hooker and Pears have been able to restrict the opposition tall forwards successfully but there have been lapses, such as last weeks game. The problem for Collingwood this week is they really only have the one reliable tall forward, even if he (Travis Cloke) has had more shots at goal than any other player in the competition. Essendon will no doubt drop a spare man back to help out whoever is playing on the Pies man mountain, and once again the delivery of the Pies midfielders will go a long way to deciding how effective of a game Cloke has. The Pies don’t really have a plethora of small and medium forwards either so the Bombers will be confident of shutting down the Magpie forwards.
It’s definitely been a tough year to be an Essendon fan and with the next few weeks likely to result in the conclusion of the drug use investigation the Bombers will soon know their fate. Until then though the only thing the players can do is concentrate on football, and they’ve done that well for the majority of this season. The last few weeks may have shown some signs that it’s finally become too overwhelming for the players and coaches alike but this looms as a test to prove just how serious the Essendon football club is on field this year. If Watson returns they should win, and even without him they’d back themselves to defeat a struggling Magpies outfit.
TEAMS;
Collingwood
B: Nathan Brown, Nick Maxwell, Lachlan Keeffe
HB: Harry O’Brien, Heath Shaw, Marley Williams
C: Steele Sidebottom, Luke Ball, Sam Dwyer
HF: Jamie Elliott, Quinten Lynch, Jarryd Blair
F: Dayne Beams, Travis Cloke, Tyson Goldsack
Foll: Brodie Grundy, Scott Pendlebury, Dane Swan
Int: Brent Macaffer, Jarrod Witts, Ben Reid, Josh Thomas, Ben Kennedy, Ben Sinclair, Paul Seedsman
IN: Luke Ball, Quinten Lynch, Paul Seedsman
OUT:
ESSENDON
B: Dustin Fletcher, Cale Hooker, Mark Baguley,
HB: Courtenay Dempsey, Patricl Ryder, Michael Hibbard
C: Davd Zaharakis, Jobe Watson, Dyson Heppell
HF: Brendon Goddard, Scott Gumbleton, Cory Dell’Ollio
F: Jake Carlisle, Kyle Hardingham, Nick Kommer
Foll: Tom Bellchambers, Brent Stanton, Heath Hocking
Int (from); Nick O’Brien, Tayte Pears, Jake Melksham, Travis Colyer
Leroy Jetta, Ben Howlett, David Myers
In: O’Brien, Gumbleton, Fletcher, Watson, Hardingham
Out: Joe Daniher, Michael Hurley (ankle)
TIP.
It’s very hard to predict the result for this game without knowing the final 22 of each side. If Watson takes his place on Sunday Essendon should start favourites, but if he pulls out late as some expect then the Pies will start shorter you’d think. The return of Ball and Seedsman and the availability of Reed and Keeffe also helps the Magpies but there sitll might be a late out or two there also.
I expect the Magpies will produce the type of football that saw them defeat Carlton and Adelaide a few weeks back and if they do they’ll be in this game up to their eyeballs. If the Magpies can remedy their poor starts I can see them winning this game by a small margin, depending on final selection of course.
PIES BY 11 POINTS.
SportsMatt 