AFL Round 2 – Sydney vs Collingwood Match Preview.

 “Woeful”, “soft”, “bruise free footy”, these are just some of the words that were used to describe the performance of the Collingwood and Sydney football clubs in round 1 of the 2014 AFL premiership season. Coming into the season the Magpies and Swans were supposed to be top four contenders, they were supposed to be ready to perform at a level that would see them push to the upper rungs of the ladder, but after just one round they face off in a game that could well be season defining. The loser of this game goes to an 0-2 record to start the season, and history shows that very few sides have ever managed to finish top 4 after such a poor start.

The way the two sides played last week was just so unlike what we have come to expect over the past few seasons. The Swans basically laid down and let their cross town rivals, GWS, run all over them in the final quarter while Collingwood were insipid in their intensity and ball use for the final 3 quarters against Fremantle. The Magpies sit on the bottom of the ladder for the first time since 2005 and Sydney aren’t too far above them.

Yet there is hope, the winner of this game will get to a record of 1 win and 1 loss which will probably see them positioned back in the top eight after 2 rounds. Of course there’s the flip side, the loser, especially if it’s Collingwood with a very poor percentage, will find themselves well off the pace far too early in the season. It’s a crucial game for both clubs and like recent contests between the two, it will be fierce and willing.

PREVIOUS FORM

It was a tough first up game for Lance Franklin and for Sydney.

There’s not much form to go on after just one game but of course what there is doesn’t read well for either team. The Swans looked like they would get a win over the Giants for most of the game, until the final quarter when the upstarts from the Western suburbs hit the front and ran away with the game. The Swans may well want to write the game off as a weird one, especially after a 25 minute weather delay due to lightning at quarter time, but the simple facts are that they were run over too easily by a team that most considered to be a wooden spoon contender. There were almost no positives for Sydney out of the game, they were beaten in almost all statistical categories and not one player managed a high of 25 possessions. The performance of gun recruit Lance Franklin topped the pile of woe off nicely, with only 7 possessions and 2 scoring shots, although some of the blame for that has to go to his team mates delivery. It was just so un-Swans like, and you’d expect better from them this weekend.

Collingwood’s performance against Fremantle in the season opener was so bad that some have written off the Magpies after just one game. The Pies started well, actually leading at quarter time, but from then on the Dockers dominated the game as they ran away with a 70 point win. As much as Fremantle were brutal and efficient, the Magpies were the opposite, lacking intensity at times and their ball use was just embarrassing. Unlike the Swans at least the Magpies won some statistical categories though, with a slight edge in contested possessions, tackles and clearances, not that it translated to any advantage on the scoreboard. There weren’t many positives from the game for Collingwood but one was Tom Langdon who on debut had 24 possessions and looked very poised and in control as part of an under siege backline. The Pies will look forward to the return of several best 22 players this week but not all missing stars will be returning just yet.

COLLINGWOOD PREVIEW

The Magpies faithful would have gone into the season with so much hope and belief, yet when the selected side was announced against the Dockers it was obvious that it was going to be a task to compete due to having 6-7 of their best players out. The absence of the likes of Reid, White, Fasolo, Dwyer, Blair and Thomas meant that it wasn’t a shock that Collingwood lost to the Dockers, but the margin of that loss was the surprise. The Pies will be hoping to include several of those names in this weeks team versus the Swans, with Jesse White already confirmed as being a certain starter against his old side., Several listed players had a run in a VFL practice match last Saturday and all got through without any injury concerns. Fasolo, Keeffe, Blair and Thomas impressed the most along with Kennedy and Goldsack (who both played against the Dockers).

Whatever the final selection is for the Pies it’s more the way the side approaches the game, and then executes that will determine if it can notch it’s first win of the 2014 campaign. Against Fremantle Collingwood’s ball use wasn’t just bad, it was horrid, and the hope is that with the inclusion of some best 22 players that it will improve, but those players will have to be committed to the battle.

Jesse White and Alex Fasolo are almost certain to be inclusions this weekend.

Against Sydney the Pies have a really good recent record, especially at ANZ Stadium, in fact you can say that the only time Sydney defeats Collingwood at the Olympic Stadium is in a season that they win the flag. To win this week the Magpies coaching staff will have to design a forward structure that is a lot more effective than the one that went out against Fremantle, because having the likes of Goldsack, Witts and Macaffer as your main support for Travis Cloke simply wont cut it. The inclusion of White will help, but then there’s the question of who else supports the forwards. Alex Fasolo has been played off back in the pre season games he has played, and in training, so he may not play forward again, which leaves Cloke once again with very little significant support. This may well be where the game is won or lost, because with wet conditions forecast whether or not you convert chances in front of goal will decide if you win or lose. Sydney’s defense is good enough to go close to replicating what the Fremantle defense did to a similar forward line, so there would want to be a different plan in place this week or Collingwood may lose again.

It is a huge game for the Magpies though, and you’d expect them to fight hard for four quarters, regardless of what other factors are in play on the night.

OPPOSITION ANALYSIS.

The Sydney Swans, where do you start? Coming into season 2014 some tipped them to win the flag, most tipped them to make the top four and be a serious contender, while a select few thought that Lance Franklin would be a bad influence on a tight knit group and they’d go backwards. So far the latter opinion is correct, but it’s so hard to read anything into one rather weird game of football. One thing is certain, on paper the Swans outfit still looks very strong, and although they will go into this game without Adam Goodes and Kurt Tippett, they still have talent on every line.

In past season’s, while not having the most recognisable names, the Swans defense has been as effective and as stringent as any backline group in the AFL. Yet in round 1 it failed dismally when put under pressure, and the loss of LRT (Lewis Roberts-Thomson) during the game meant that the Swans defense leaked goals late like it hadn’t in the past. LRT is unlikely play against the Pies this week either it seems leaving that defense looking weaker once again. The good news for the Swans is of course that the Pies forward line won’t be at full strength either, so the likes of Richards, Grundy, Smith and Malceski should still be able to manage to defend better than they did against the Giants. It probably is one area of the ground that the Magpies could exploit the Swans, but without Ben Reid to do so this area may not be where the game is decided.

Dan Hanneberry is as tough a midfielder as there is in the AFL at the moment.

The Swans midfield is as tough and hard as they come in the AFL, and that’s not a shock when you have names like Kennedy, McVeigh, Jack (a chance to return from injury), Hannebery and Mitchell, but in a similar vein to the Collingwood midfield it does lack real pace and line breakers to break open the game. With wet conditions forecast this may suit both midfield’s’ but surprisingly the Swans don’t have a great record in the wet, as shown against GWS in round 1. Sydney will be hoping Jack can get up for his first game of the year, because the Pies also have a ton of hard, tough talent in the midfield, but also lack real class on the outside of the packs. The Magpies had a better round 1 in the middle than the Swans but their ball use compared to Sydney’s was woeful, so that will be an interesting aspect to keep an eye on early in this game. The final piece of the midfield is the rucks, and usually Sydney would dominate this area against a young and inexperienced Brodie Grundy, but with Shane Mumford leaving it might be more even that it was last season.

The Swans forward line should be their biggest strength, but with the absence of Kurt Tippett and Adam Goodes it’s not as strong as it could be. The biggest paid recruit in AFL history, Lance Franklin along with Sam Reid (yes, Ben’s brother) are therefore left as the key position players to carry the burden. If the Swans had Goodes and Tippett they would stretch a Pies defense that struggled against Fremantle and is also missing several key players in Ben Reid and Marley Williams. Franklin has a great record against the Pies, but that was in a team that just about always dominated the matchups, so it will be interesting to see if he can translate that dominance to his new club. The Swans do have a few small forwards who are dangerous though, with Jetta, McGlynn and Rohan all capable of kicking multiple goals, and this is one area that the Pies backline has struggled in in recent years, restricting small/medium forwards. It’s the area of the ground of greatest concern for Collingwood, and Sydney will look to exploit it for sure.

The Swans, even without a few injured stars, still posses a list of players that is well and truly capable of performing like a top four team. After what happened against GWS in round 1, they are in a similar position to Collingwood though, and that is not really knowing just how well they are going to go in season 2014. The return of Kieran Jack should help, but one player isn’t going to improve them as much as they need to from that Giants game. It will be the attitude of the Swans, and the Magpies that ultimately determines this game you would assume, well that and ball use because both teams were pretty poor in that area in round 1.

Statistical Comparison (Round 1 – 2014)

Category	Collingwood	Sydney
Clearances	38	37
Interchanges	117	94
Tackles	83	76
Contested possessions	145	158
Scoring accuracy	24.00%	41.00%
Hit outs	25	37
Total stoppages	48	64

TEAMS.

Collingwood
B: Alan Toovey, Jack Frost, Nick Maxwell
HB: Heritier Lumumba, Nathan Brown, Ben Sinclair
C: Steele Sidebottom, Dane Swan, Clinton Young
HF: Taylor Adams, Travis Cloke, Brent Macaffer
F: Jarrod Witts, Jesse White, Jarryd Blair
Foll: Brodie Grundy, Scott Pendlebury, Dayne Beams
Int: Tyson Goldsack, Luke Ball, Jamie Elliott, Tom Langdon
Emg: Sam Dwyer, Ben Kennedy, Lachlan Keeffe

IN: Jarryd Blair, Jesse White
OUT: Marty Clarke, Ben Kennedy

TIP.

When deciding on a result for any game between these two, form is almost irrelevant, and especially in this case when there’s not much exposed form to go off. The Swans and Pies were both ordinary in round 1, so you’d expect both to come out fired up and breathing fire early on. The forecast is for showers every day leading into the game in Sydney, so that alone should ensure the scores stay close. The probable inclusions of Jack for Sydney and White, Fasolo and Keeffe for the Pies makes this an even harder game to tip, as it seems that as far as injuries go the clubs are pretty level in severity at the moment.

The history of clashes at this stadium between these two heavily favours the Magpies and along with a few key inclusions I believe Collingwood will surely perform better than they did against Fremantle. Added motivation should also come from having the club captain, Nick Maxwell, play his 200^th AFL game and that factor alone should be enough to see the Pies get home in a close one.

PIES BY 11 POINTS.

Congratulations Nick Maxwell, 200 games.

This game against Sydney marks the 200^th time that Collingwood’s All Australian, Premiership winning, Premiership captain Nick Maxwell will run out for the Magpies. He’s clearly one of the greatest leaders in this club’s history and should be congratulated on reaching such a milestone.

VFL

The 2014 VFL season gets under way this weekend and Collingwood’s VFL team has a home game to start versus North Ballarat. The game starts at 1pm at Victoria Park and is sure to feature some of the future stars of the Magpies list, as well as a few senior and rookie listed players pushing for promotion. This season the VFL Pies list has been strengthened with the inclusions of some strong state level players like Matt Suckling and the return of Tom Couch. Collingwood’s VFL team has been tipped to finish top four and contest for the VFL premiership, so they will be well worth checking out in 2014.