AFL Round 16 – Collingwood vs GWS Match Preview.

Is there still hope for Collingwood? Most would answer no, but after consecutive wins the Magpies have at least mathematically put themselves back in the finals race. Collingwood went into their mid season bye with a 4-8 win/loss record. That was a woeful start for a club who had grand ambitions for season 2016. Throughout that bye week though the message was the same from everyone at the Holden Centre, that until they were absolutely ruled out of finals contention they’d continue to endure. This they have, with two ugly yet effective triumphs over Fremantle and Carlton bringing Collingwood to within three wins of 8^th spot. The problem the Magpies face is that to even stay in contention they just have to keep winning, and that’s not going to be easy with their draw. On the run home the Pies play 6 of the current top 8 placed sides in the competition.

It starts on Saturday in Sydney when the Magpies travel north to take on perhaps the story of season 2016, the GWS Giants. The Giants find themselves in third place on the ladder with a 10-4 record. That’s a remarkable position for a team who in their short history has yet to even threaten the to play finals, yet now look likely to finish in the top 4. The Giants had a small mid season slump with back to back losses to the Cats and Crows, but have recovered well to win their last 3 games leading into the bye last weekend. In fact as it stands the Giants have the best percentage of any team in the competition due to a great mix of attack and defense. They will welcome the Pies to Spotless Stadium on Saturday and look to get their first ever win over Collingwood.

 

COLLINGWOOD PREVIEW

So what has changed, if anything, to create this improved showing from the Magpies in recent weeks? Simply put the backline has changed. Collingwood has gone from conceding large scores to average sides like Melbourne and St Kilda to now giving up only 92 points over the last 2 games. The return to full fitness of Ben Reid, Marley Williams and Nathan Brown has played a huge part in this turnaround but there’s more to it than just that. The Pies are chasing back harder, where in the first 12 games they were smashed on defensive transition the past two games have been so much better in that area. A lot of that has to do with work rate, and maybe, just maybe this Collingwood side is finally going to give a consistent effort each week.

There are still some obvious problems though for the Pies and it starts with the forward line. Last week against the Blues it was almost comical how bad each sides forward lines were. The Pies are missing Swan, Fasolo and Elliott from it’s first choice attack and without them at times they look listless. That should be no surprise too, when you’re now relying on a forward line consisting of Cloke (out of form), Cox (played 10 games), Moore (second year player), Blair and Aish. The Magpies will be desperate to get Fasolo back this week or face a tough task scoring against one of the better defenses in the AFL.

The Collingwood midfield is a concern too, as it relies on the output of too few to do the majority of the work. The Pies central group ranks last for clearances in the entire league, and it just so happens that this week they run into the team ranked 1^st. Once again injuries have had an effect here with Adams and Swan the two most noteworthy omissions. There’s only four players at the Pies who average above 3 clearances a game, and one of those is the club’s main ruckman, Brodie Grundy. The other three are very predictable in Treloar, Pendlebury and Adams. What has been disappointing is the performance of the second tier midfielders, with Greenwood, Crisp, De Goey, Sidebottom and Blair adding very little to the clearances. There’s no quick fix here either, even if Adams returns this week it’s hard to see how Collingwood even get close to the star studded clearance machine that is the Giants midfield.

Selection will be interesting for the Magpies this week. As it currently stands, the Pies injury list has two markers, with 6 players on the injury list with a “test” next to their name, and the other 5 with “long term” next to theirs. Of those 6 who are a chance to return this weekend, are 3 standouts in Adams, Fasolo and Marsh. If any of those 3 are fit and able to play football this weekend, surely it’s at senior level. The VFL Magpies, as seems to be a familiar pattern now, had yet another win on the weekend and several from that game will push for selection also. Jesse White, Adam Oxley and Rupert Wills were the standouts of the listed players, so there are options for the Pies at selection this week.

It’s a tough task heading north to play the Giants now, and one that the Magpies simply must win to keep any faint hopes of finals alive.

 

GWS PREVIEW

The Giants are one of the big stories of the 2016 AFL season. The AFL needed at least one of the latest expansion teams to come good quickly or risk an embarrassment on a national level. Come good the Giants have, as they sit in 3^rd on the ladder with one of the easiest draws to come. But even with a tough draw you would back these Giants to qualify for the finals from here, and probably make the top four also. They don’t have too many weaknesses, as they rank 2^nd for total points scored and 5^th for least points conceded. Simply put the GWS Giants have developed into one heck of a scary opposition for anyone to face.

The Giants midfield is as stacked and talented as any in the AFL at the moment. Led by the now experienced trio of Ward, Griffen and Scully, along with a plethora of young talent it really is a force. At their disposal also they have one of the most intimidating ruckman in existence, Shane Mumford. In a young and developing side Mumford may well have been the best trade in of all. Of course there’s the young talent too with the likes of Shiel, Kelly, Coniglio, Greene and Whitfield just a few adding to the depth of the Giants central core. The run into a Magpies midfield this week that has top end talent but not that the depth that the GWS version has. The Pies also rank down the bottom for hitouts while the Giants are near the top. This really is one area of the ground that the Giants should dominate.

Ever since the Giants came into the competition their forward line has been talked about. That’s no shock when you have the amount of key position potential that they have. They’ve had to deal with the loss of Cam McCarthy this year but with Patton, Lobb, Cameron and the addition of Steve Johnson their forward line is still performing strongly. Johnson has been a very smart addition to a young and developing forward line, with his wealth of experience and knowledge no doubt improving this group quickly. He’s also averaging over 2 goals a game so there’s some life in the old dog yet. This may be the most competitive region of the ground on Saturday with the Pies backline back in form in recent weeks. They seem to match up well with the Giants in recent years and that shouldn’t change too much this weekend.

If there is an area of weakness for the Giants it may be their backline, but even that would be a harsh assessment of the fifth ranked defense in the AFL. It is weakened this week by the probable absence of Phil Davis though, with the star key defender likely to miss with a calf injury. That will leave most of the defensive work to Joel Patfull and Nick Haynes. Where the Giants do excel in defense is when they have to move the rebound the ball, with Heath Shaw perhaps the best at this in the AFL at the moment. The ex Magpie (traded for Taylor Adams a few years back) is a lock for the All Australian team and is arguably having his best season. Collingwood has had a problem defending the ball out of their forward line too so that’s another area the Giants will look to exploit. The Magpies forward line is a mess at the moment though really, and even if Alex Fasolo returns from injury it’s still not a threatening force.

The Giants will obviously be expecting to win this game and set themselves on the path to a top four spot leading into the finals. They have been weakened a little by injury though with Davis and Buntine both expected to miss. The Giants though have depth like no other team, and there’s a plethora of young talent to choose from in their NEAFL outfit. The two Adams, Kennedy and Tomlinson are the most likely inclusions but there’s others such as Llyod, Reid, Barrett and Steele who will consider themselves chances this weekend. No matter what the final selection is the Giants will field a team that will be formidable indeed.

 

TIP

The GWS Giants should win this game. They have the more talented 22, they will be at home and they are in far better form than the Magpies. Funnier things have happened though and the Pies will head north hoping for one of the upsets of the season on Saturday. For that to happen a lot has to go right, they will need to catch the Giants on an “off day”. Also they will need a few of their injured stars to return, most notably Fasolo and Adams. If that occurs then maybe the Pies can do what no one will say they can do, and that’s win against the Giants in Sydney.

MAGPIES BY 3 POINTS

 

VFL

The VFL Magpies are flying. They sit in the top four on the VFL ladder and are on a six game winning streak. It may get even better too with trips away to the bottom two placed teams in coming weeks. This week they head to North Ballarat to face the Roosters. Game start is 1pm at Eureka Stadium.

AFL Round 11 – Collingwood vs GWS Match Preview.

Collingwood and the GWS Giants have started the 2015 season in a sensational manner. At the beginning of the season no one in the media tipped either to play finals. Yet after ten rounds both are positioned well ahead of expectations with a respective 7-3 win/loss record. The two clubs have been impressive in 2015 with wins over more experienced sides both at home and on the road. Both clubs are also following a similar plan when it comes to building their lists. They are primarily relying on youth to push them up the ladder and current evidence suggests it is working.

This Sunday at the M.C.G. the two will clash in a vital round 11 fixture. The winner of this game will move to 8-3, which for either side would have been almost unthinkable at the start of the season. The Giants don’t get the chance to play on the biggest stage in Australian sport too much so they will see this as a huge game for many reasons.

Being that this is only the Giants 4^th season in the AFL there isn’t a lot of history between the Pies and Giants but some of the clashes have been memorable. The first time the Giants came to the MCG against the Pies was in 2013 and they gave the stronger Pies outfit a real scare with boom youngster Jeremy Cameron dominating early on. Although the Magpies ran away with a 40 point win the final margin didn’t show just how impressive the young Giants had been. Last season, once again, they only met once but it was the closest of the 3 games between the two yet. This time at home, the Giants started really well against the Pies and held a 10 point lead at three quarter time. The more experienced Collingwood team eventually won a real tough contest by 8 points but once again the Giants put up a fight. This weekend will be only the fourth side the two have clashed and although the Pies hold a 3-0 record over the Giants will feel they have every chance of notching up a big win on the M.C.G.

RECENT FORM

Some say that Collingwood haven’t beaten anyone, that they don’t deserve to be sitting inside the top 4 on the AFL ladder, but guess what? They are. It’s taking some hard work too, with a fighting come from behind win against North Melbourne two weeks back and a hard fought win over a gutsy Melbourne outfit on the Monday just past. That win over North Melbourne was nothing short of staggering, as the young Magpies, missing several key players, came from 39 points down at half time to win by 17. The game versus the Demons on the Queen’s Birthday holiday was also a tough encounter for the Pies. The Dees treated it like their grand final and the scores were level nearing three quarter time. From there though the Magpies took over, with Travis Cloke kicking 7 goals straight and young Adam Oxley having the game of his short career down back with 30 possessions and 14 marks. It was another solid win for a Magpies team going places.

Unlike Collingwood GWS are getting applause from the media for their start to the season. That’s totally understandable given the youth of the club and the comparative position to the other expansion club, the Gold Coast Suns. What the Giants have been able to do so far this year is make their two home grounds, Startrack Oval in Canberra and Skoda Stadium in Sydney into fortresses. They haven’t lost a game at either venue in 2015 and that’s very impressive in itself. The stand out victories for the Giants have been over the reigning premiers Hawthorn and the improving Adelaide Crows. At the time the Hawks win was described as the greatest in the club’s short history. Last weekend the Giants won again at home over the struggling Lions by 30 points. They never looked troubled and it sets up one of the most important games in the club’s history so far.

COLLINGWOOD PREVIEW

Collingwood are travelling pretty well really. After starting the season with a 4-1 record and now sitting at 7-3 after 10 games the Magpies really have set themselves up for a crack at the finals. Last season the Pies were in the same position though before an enormous amount of injuries hit the club and they fell away to finish 11^th. This year so far at least the Magpies injury list hasn’t looked as bad as the 2014 version. Ben Reid and Levi Greenwood are the two still missing who would be automatic selections in the seniors, and Reid could maybe return after the bye. Greenwood is likely to play his first VFL game for the Pies this Sunday also. What has impressed many about this 2015 version of the Magpies is their youth. Players such as Oxley, Ramsay (before he got injured), De Goey, Elliott, Seedsman, Witts, Grundy, Langdon, Frost, Crisp and Williams have all made an impact in different ways. Young Jordan De Goey may be the best of them all though, taken with pick 5 in last year’s national draft the 19 year old reminds many of a young Michael Voss with his strength in the midfield and his vision in traffic. Twice now De Goey has tallied 9 tackles in a game, and his tackles are the type that stick. That’s where the future improvement lies for this Collingwood team too, much like the Giants their young draftees are on the verge of really making an impact on the competition.

This weekend against the Giants the Pies will go in with a relatively strong squad of players to choose from. Jarryd Blair is the only one under and injury cloud out of the win over the Demons with an ankle sprain but he should be right to take his place. Jarrod Witts (illness) and Taylor Adams (toe) were late withdrawals from the squad on Monday and both will need to pass fitness tests to regain their places in the selected 22. The VFL performed quite well once again on the weekend despite coming up short out at Casey fields. Patrick Karnezis, Sam Dwyer and Jonathon Marsh would be the main three pushing for promotion from that side. The coaching staff will almost certainly want to play two ruckman so they will be hoping Witts overcomes his illness and is ready to play on Sunday. Collingwood’s problem so far this season has been lapses in games where they’ve allowed the opposition to totally dominate for a period of the game. It’s something that can be put down to the youth of the side but it’s also a problem that will be addressed and needs improvement with some very tough games to come soon.

OPPOSITION ANALYSIS

The Greater Western Sydney Giants have begun to make their home grounds into veritable fortresses. They haven’t lost any of their 5 home games so far this season and that’s a great platform for a young team to build off. The obvious next step is develop an ability to win on the road. The Giants only two wins away from home this season have come against lowly teams in the Saints and Blues, although both wins were impressive. That alone shows how important this game is for GWS, they have a chance to really make a statement on the biggest stage of all and move to a very strong 8-3 record. Club captain Callan Ward may have been right when he stated that this is the biggest game in the Giants short history.

The Giants forward line has the potential to be one of the scariest for opposition defences in the entire AFL. Led by the emerging superstar Jeremy Cameron, Cam McCarthy and James Stewart it already is a formidable task for most AFL teams to over come. Cameron is on target to kick over 60 goals this season while McCarthy has emerged as a clear number 2 target and could kick over 50 himself. The third forward option isn’t as clear with Stewart’s inaccuracy at goal leaving his spot in the team a little uncertain, especially with Rory Lobb kicking 7 in a big NEAFL win for the Giants reserves on the weekend. Lobb would also provide ruck support for the indomitable Shane Mumford as Stewart really doesn’t have that side to his game. Where the Giants fall down a little is in regards to crumbing forwards, with no small/medium forward option averaging over a goal a game so far this season.

GWS has developed a backline that is fast becoming one of the best in the AFL. The club was very smart in it’s recruiting of Phil Davis and Joel Patfull. If you take away that one terrible game versus the Eagles in Perth their total points conceded would be very similar to the Magpies. Davis is likely to take on man mountain Travis Cloke, who is fresh off a career best equalling 7 goals while Patfull will line up on Jesse White or the resting second ruck if the Pies go that way with selection. One are that the Giants need to improve on in defense is their ability to rebound out of defensive 50. They currently rank 15^th in that category and against a Pies side that likes to put plenty of forward pressure on, but is open to counter attack, this is an area the Giants will have to improve upon if they are to beat the Magpies.

The Giants midfield talent is that deep that it’s hard to determine who is their starting four really. That’s a positive too, and while there’s still further improvement in this are as their youngsters improve over time they are already a top 5 team when it comes to centre clearances. An area they need to improve in is winning the contested ball around the ground though as they are languishing in 17^th place for contested possessions while the Magpies rank 1^st. Statistics can be deceiving though as the Demons also ranked lowly in that category yet dominated the Pies for large periods in the midfield on Monday. The Giants do possess some of the best young midfielders in the competition with the likes of Smith, Coniglio, Treloar, Whitfield and Shiel all improving at a dramatic rate. Add the experience of Ward and Scully and it’s a formidable central group indeed. The stand out though is Shane Mumford, who may well be one of the best recruits of all time, especially for a young and developing team. If Mumford isn’t the best ruckman in the AFL at the moment he’d be in top 3 for sure, and should dominate against the young Pies ruckman.

The Giants would have targeted this game as one of their stand out fixtures of season 2015, they simply do not get massive games like this on the MCG too often. Selection will be a challenge for the coaching staff too with that massive NEAFL win placing pressure on the 22 who played last week. Also available is Nick Haynes who missed last week’s game with injury. No matter what the final line up is for the Giants they have the talent to worry, and even defeat an equally young Magpies outfit.

TEAMS

Collingwood
B: Tom Langdon, Nathan Brown, Marley Williams
HB: Alan Toovey, Jack Frost, Tyson Goldsack
C: Adam Oxley, Dane Swan, Steele Sidebottom
HF: Jamie Elliott, Jesse White, Jordan De Goey
F: Alex Fasolo, Travis Cloke, Jarryd Blair
Foll: Brodie Grundy, Jack Crisp, Scott Pendlebury
Int (from): Ben Kennedy, Taylor Adams, Jarrod Witts, Travis Varcoe, Tim Broomhead, Brayden Maynard, Paul Seedsman

IN: Taylor Adams, Brayden Maynard, Jarrod Witts
OUT: Nil
NEW: Brayden Maynard (18, Sandringham U18)

GWS GIANTS

FB: Heath Shaw, Joel Patfull, Matt Buntine
HB: Tommy Bugg, Phil Davis, Nick Haynes
C: Toby Greene, Callan Ward, Tom Scully
HF: Ryan Griffen, Cam McCarthy, Devon Smith
FF: Will Hoskin-Elliott, Jeremy Cameron, Lachie Whitfield
R: Shane Mumford, Adam Treloar, Stephen Coniglio

Interchange (from): Zac Williams, Aidan Corr, Andrew Phillips, James Stewart, Dylan Shiel, Josh Kelly, Nathan Wilson

In: Nick Haynes, Zac Williams, Andrew Phillips
Out: –

TIP

This really is a critical game in each clubs respective season. Neither would have thought they could be 8-3 after 11 rounds but after this game that’s where the winner will be. Obviously the Pies and Giants are still inconsistent both from week to week and in games so it makes for an intriguing clash to say the least. The Giants go into this game with the comparatively better injury list but that is off set by the home ground advantage to the Magpies.

I see this being a really tight game, one which ebbs and flows with real periods of dominance from the two clubs. Down the stretch though I suspect Collingwood’s small forwards to be the difference here with Elliott and Fasolo hitting the scoreboard where the Giants won’t.

MAGPIES BY 13 POINTS.

AFL Round 22 – Collingwood vs GWS Match Preview.

Could it get any worse? That’s the question been asked in regards to Collingwood’s injury crisis and the answer may well be no. Last weekend the Pies started favourites in a matchup vs the lowly Brisbane Lions, only for everything that could go wrong actually going wrong. From late in the week until the final quarter of the game vs the Lions, Collingwood lost as many as 7 players to injury, including 3 season ending injuries to absolute stars (Beams, Cloke, Reid). Yes the performance wasn’t up to scratch against the Lions but for once there were real excuses, with an injury plague so big that it became either something you laughed or cried at, depending on your individual response to such things occurring. That loss, and the loss of those players to injury, basically ended Collingwood’s 2014 finals hopes and leaves them with two rather meaningless games to play still.

The first of those games comes on Saturday when the Magpies travel north to face the league’s newest team, the Greater Western Sydney Giants, for only the second time on their home ground. The Giants themselves have no hope of playing finals, and like the Pies have been hit hard by injuries recently so this game then becomes about restoring pride and looking to the future rather than what is relevant this season. The Giants have had a much improved season and for the first time in their short history they aren’t going to win the wooden spoon, the hypothetical object given out for the team that finishes on the bottom of the ladder. Their win last week over Melbourne at the MCG may well have been their greatest yet, as with several players injured they fought through to record a commanding victory over a hapless Demons outfit. Compare that to Collingwood who are coming off yet another demoralising loss and the Giants will go into this game believing they can notch another win.

COLLINGWOOD PREVIEW

The Magpies have had a shocking season in terms of injuries but that is only part of the reason why they won’t play finals for the first time in 9 seasons. They’ve had a woeful second half of the season (2 wins, 7 losses in the last 9 games) and some of the losses, and the ways they’ve gone about it in those losses have been totally inexcusable. The loss to the Lions last week was a perfect example of this, as although the Pies got several injuries on the night they still weren’t competitive for large periods of the game, and their customary fight and intensity just wasn’t present at all. Of course the injuries don’t help but GWS managed to destroy a weak Melbourne side with several injuries of their own, so that’s not an excuse for such a capitulation by the Pies. There are positives though, with plenty of youngsters getting games they may well have not had without the injury crisis occurring. Possible stars of the future like Kennedy, Adams, Witts, Grundy, Broomhead, Martin, Frost, Langdon and Keeffe have all had more games then they probably would have under different circumstances, which bodes well for the future. And that’s why the Pies have to think about now, their future and we may well see another debutante or two this weekend for the Magpies.

In regards to selection there are going to be plenty of changes, with up to 7 players missing through injury who were selected last weekend. The VFL side did have a great win though down at Geelong to secure a finals spot so there are a few choices for the selection committee to make. Tom Langdon, Jesse White, Scott Pendlebury and Jamie Elliott come back in for sure, if they are fit enough, and then there’s several others out of the VFL in contention. Two youngsters yet to debut at senior level who may come in this week are Jackson Ramsay (small defender) and Corey Gault (ruckman/defender). Both have performed very well in recent weeks at VFL level and have put their hands up for a chance to play in the seniors. Of course the loss of the likes of Beams, Reid, Cloke and Toovey will hurt the Magpies ability to perform this week but they really should be winning this game regardless.

OPPOSITION ANALYSIS

It’s been a good year for the GWS Giants so far, especially considering the very low base they were coming off. In their first two seasons of senior AFL football they only managed three wins, yet this season they’ve already notched up five and they still have two more games to go. Some of those wins have been statements too especially the wins over Carlton and Sydney, too very good football teams. The win against Melbourne last week was as good as any of them though, especially considering the injuries they had on the day and the way they destroyed the Dees when given the chance. The young Giants are improving and the addition of experienced players like Mumford and Pies premiership player Heath Shaw have added to their list immeasurably. This will be the first time Heath Shaw clashes with his former side and with several leaders missing he may well be captain on the day. The Giants go into this game with about as much injury decimation as the Pies, so the side they will field won’t be their best.

The Giants backline has held up ok this year considering their defensive leader, Phil Davis, has only managed half of the games so far this season, and is likely to be missing again this week. In fact ex Pie Heath Shaw is almost certain to be the only experienced player in the defense this week. That may not be as a big a problem as it seems though, with the Pies themselves having several forwards missing this week, namely Cloke, Reid and maybe Elliott. The young Giants backline may very well be able to hold it’s own against what will be a makeshift Collingwood forward line. One interesting aspect is James Stewart, who actually qualified to be a Pies father/son choice but Collingwood’s recruiters decided to pass on him, so he will be wanting to prove them wrong on Saturday.

The GWS midfield has improved this season with the addition of Shane Mumford as the primary ruck. Mumford bought leadership, experience, talent and strength to a central grouping that was lacking in all areas. The problem now is it is one area of the ground where the Giants have been hit hard by injury. Missing this week will be Whitfield, Scully, Ward and Coniglio, arguably their best four midfielders. Once again though they face off against a Collingwood midfield that has been hit hard by injury too. No Beams or Adams and the inability of Swan and Ball to play significant midfield time really will hurt the Magpies in the middle this weekend. If Mumford can give his young midfielders first use of the ball they may be able to get on top of the young Pies in this crucial area.

If they are all fit, which of course they aren’t this week, the Giants forward line is scary for even the best defenses, let alone one with several players missing like the Pies backline. But with two absolute young guns, Patton and Cameron now missing for the rest of the year the GWS forward line isn’t as intimidating as it was, although it still might pose a problem for the Pies. The two key forwards this weekend are likely to be Giles and last year’s number one pick, Tom Boyd. Boyd is a monster of a kid and moves better than anyone his size in the game really, so this might be his breakout senior game. Collingwood of course will be without Brown, Maxwell, Toovey and maybe Lumumba down back which once again just about evens the score on the injury front.

The Giants have been decimated by injuries but they will look at the Pies side that will be selected and smile just a little, knowing their opposition is gettable this weekend. GWS will have gained a tonne of confidence out of their win at the MCG last week and will be wanting to continue that form into this game. They will still field some of the best young talent in the AFL and with several experienced players still around to provide leadership it’s not beyond possibility that the Giants may win two games in a row for the firs time in their history.

TEAMS

Collingwood
B: Jackson Ramsay, Jack Frost, Ben Sinclair
HB: Tom Langdon, Lachlan Keeffe, Tony Armstrong
C: Steele Sidebottom, Dane Swan, Sam Dwyer
HF: Josh Thomas, Tyson Goldsack, Tim Broomhead
F: Alex Fasolo, Jesse White, Brodie Grundy
Foll: Jarrod Witts, Brent Macaffer, Scott Pendlebury
Int: Jarryd Blair, Luke Ball, Clinton Young, Marley Williams
Emg: Ben Kennedy, Patrick Karnezis, Corey Gault

IN: Sam Dwyer, Tom Langdon, Scott Pendlebury, Jackson Ramsay, Josh Thomas, Jesse White
OUT: Dayne Beams (knee), Travis Cloke (ankle), Heritier Lumumba (leg), Ben Reid (hamstring), Alan Toovey (groin), Ben Kennedy (omitted)
NEW: Jackson Ramsay (19, East Perth)

GWS GIANTS

FB: Adam Kennedy, Phil Davis, James Stewart
HB: Lachie Plowman, Heath Shaw, Matt Buntine
C: Toby Greene, Adam Treloar, Rhys Palmer
HF: Dylan Shiel, Tom Boyd, Josh Kelly
FF: Will Hoskin-Elliott, Adam Tomlinson, Devon Smith
R: Shane Mumford, Tomas Bugg, Mark Whiley

Int: Josh Hunt, Tim Golds, Jono O’Rourke, Nathan Wilson

In: Josh Hunt, Tim Golds
Out: Callan Ward (calf), Jon Patton (knee)

Emergencies: Curtly Hampton, Zac Williams, Sam Frost

TIP

How do your provide a definitive tip to a game where as many as 30 first choice players may be missing from both sides? It’s almost beyond a joke for both clubs now and it’s fitting that off the back of their worst games injury wise these two face off. GWS have the home field advantage and there’s little doubt this is where they play their best football so that gives them a chance for sure.

The inclusion of Pies captain and champion Scott Pendlebury may well be the difference here though, he is just that good.

I expect Collingwood to respond well after a poor performance last week and sneak home in a close game.

MAGPIES BY 9 POINTS.

VFL

After securing a finals spot with an 8 goal last quarter down at Geelong last week, the VFL Magpies head to Bendigo on Friday night for their final home and away game of the season. The game starts at 6.30pm at Queen Elizabeth Oval in Bendigo.

AFL Round 18 – Collingwood vs GWS Giants Match Preview.

Collingwood are in trouble, there’s no other way of putting it as the Magpies enter into the last 6 games of the 2013 home and away season. Last week up on the Gold Coast the Pies were expected to defeat the upstart Suns yet from early on nothing went to plan. The Magpies use of the ball was atrocious really, whether it be kicking for goal or turning the ball over in open play. Eventually, despite a comeback in the last quarter, the Suns won the game by 7 points, a defeat that left the Pies hanging on to a spot in the eight, and all but ended any slight hope of a top four or premiership for season 2013. This weekend the Pies will get what they need, a win and a percentage booster as they face off the second year Greater Western Sydney Giants. It will be a false sign of hope though for the Magpie army as playing GWS really doesn’t give you any clue as to how your team is travelling, whether they win by 80 or 150 points as some teams have done. That’s not to say that GWS are a waste of time or anything, they are in a similar position to the one the Suns were in this time last year, and we’ve all seen the way they’ve become very competitive in such s short time. The Giants senior coach Kevin Sheedy hates the Magpies with a passion and will attempt to embarrass the Pies, at least for a while on Saturday afternoon.

PREVIOUS FORM

The Giants almost had their first win of the year against the Dogs.

Coming in to the 2013 season no one expected the Giants to climb off the bottom of the ladder, but it must be of some disappointment to those at the club that after 16 games they are still yet to notch up a win. Some of their recent performances have been better though with a narrow loss to the Western Bulldogs and a very competitive effort against the rampaging Bombers last week. The loss to the Dogs was a promising sign, but at the same time must have been heart breaking as the Giants fell just 4 points short of their first win of the season. Last Saturday the Giants also took it up to Essendon for large periods, before the Bombers ran away with a 39 point win. These are promising signs indeed for a club that wants to be a power of the AFL within 3 seasons, but they still need to win a few games this year to show they are on the right track.

The loss for the Magpies against the Suns was devastating really, especially as it was starting to look like the Pies were finding form after two strong wins over Carlton and Adelaide. Collingwood started well but kicking 2 goals and 7 behinds in the first quarter really hurt their chances of winning. The Suns to their credit capitalised on these errors and built a handy lead going into the final quarter. The Pies got the margin back within a goal but never got closer as the Ablett led Suns pulled off their most famous victory. Collingwood’s form now looks pretty ordinary for a team that had premiership hopes leading into the season.

COLLINGWOOD PREVIEW

It’s been a frustrating season for everyone involved with Collingwood as injuries and form slumps have seen them never really reach the heights that were expected. Last week’s loss to the Suns was probably the low point of the season so far. The club has to move forward though and will do so first with a win over the Giants, but more importantly by planning for a tough three week stretch against the Bombers, Swans and Hawks following this game. To plan for that the Pies will have to manage their players this weekend, meaning that anyone with any injury complaint or slight niggle won’t play, meaning some youngsters may get their first opportunity. The two obvious inclusions are Jarryd Blair and Nathan Brown who missed the Suns loss with minor injuries and they will be welcomed back with open arms if fit and ready to play.

Another player Collingwood will want to return this week is Harry O’Brien, who was in great form before an argument with senior coach Nathan Buckley saw O’Brien voluntary take a few weeks off. He is back and training with the club but may return through the VFL this weekend. Outside of those senior players, and others like Didak, Lynch, Clarke, Martin and Russell who played in the VFL last weekend, the Pies may look to youth this week against the young GWS outfit. Brodie Grundy, Ben Kennedy and Jackson Ramsay all starred in the reserves last week and any or all of the three could play against the Giants. It’s Grundy though that has created the most buzz around the place, as the 202cm giant has performed some amazing feats for a man his size over the past few weeks. Grundy is a massive part of the future of Collingwood and plenty of fans are hoping they get a glimpse of him at senior level before the year is out.

The Pies are in trouble though, and it’s obvious something has to change if they are to do any damage over the coming month and once the finals roll around. The forward line is still too reliant on Cloke and Elliott and the backline is leaking goals unlike it has for the past few years, meaning that the “wonder cure” of moving Reid up forward may not be possible until the backline is strengthened significantly. Whatever changes the Pies make this week, it will surely be with one eye on next week’s game against Essendon because it will be then that these Magpies get a chance to redeem themselves for last week’s loss to the Suns. This weekend is more about getting through with no new injuries while maybe trying a few new things, or players.

OPPOSITION ANALYSIS

The Giants entered 2013 fully knowing, and accepting, that this would be another tough year for the expansion club after only achieving two wins in their maiden season in the AFL. But few would have thought that after 16 games (17 rounds) the Giants would still be win less in 2013. It’s not a dissimilar situation to the Gold Coast Suns in 2012 though who hadn’t won a game after 14 attempts in their second season. The Suns however went on to win 3 of their last 8 games and now have taken that one step further and notched up 6 wins already this season. The Giants will for a long time be compared to the Suns previous seasons achievements and this year they need to notch up a win or two on the run home or risk being called a problem child of the AFL. There’s little doubting the Giants have some of the best young talent on their list, and it shows on every line of their team.

If the Giants have a strength at the moment it has to be their midfield. They sit 5^th for centre clearances in 2013 which is a staggering statistic for a side that is so young and still in development. The problem it seems for the Giants is once those stoppages are over they are dominated in the midfield spread by just about every other team. In that midfield though GWS has some names of the future with the likes of Coniglio (injured at the moment), Shiel, Treloar, Whitfield, Adams, Hoskin-Elliott and the experienced pair of Callan Ward and Tom Scully you can see why the Giants midfield is able to be competitive most weeks, even if the scoreboard doesn’t show that. It was the main reason why they almost defeated the Bulldogs a few weeks ago and also took it up to the Bombers without Jobe Watson to dominate against them. This week the Giants midfield will face a real tough test though up against a stacked Magpies central core that even last week dominated in stages despite the poor result. In the ruck we may get the chance to see two of the young guns of the AFL go head to head with Tom Downie a chance to make his debut in the same game that Collingwood’s youngster Brodie Grundy may make his first senior appearance also. Both have been dominating at the reserves level and it would be a glimpse of the future indeed if this match up was to occur.

Jeremy Cameron is already a star at senior level.

The GWS forward line has the long term potential to be the best in the AFL, with Jeremy Cameron, Adam Tomlinson and Jonathan Patton all man mountains who play football the modern way. Of course Patton is out for the year but he should return next year and assist a forward line that may also have either/both of Lance Franklin and Tom Boyd in it, and that’s just a scary though indeed. At the moment though Cameron is the man, the one that is consistent on a week to week basis already, as shown by his season tally of 43 which has him in the Coleman medal race. After that the goals drop off significantly though with Setanta O’hAilpan the next best on 13 goals. Apart from Devon Smith who has spent some time up forward and kicked 11 goals this season, it’s clear to see that small forwards and midfield assistance is a major problem for the Giants up forward. Of course this forward line doesn’t get the opportunities that most others do but it’s return is still down on what the club would have expected, although the loss of Patton has to be a major reason for that. This week the Giants will match up with a Pies defense that has been struggling, allowing teams to score far too easily on the counter attack for most of the season. The Giants, not unlike the Suns will try and exploit this weakness to keep the game as close as possible, for as long as possible.

Where over the rest of the ground the Giants lack experience when it comes to their backline this isn’t entirely so with co captain Phil Davis and ex Hawk Stephen Gilham leading a defense that has been under more pressure than maybe any team in the history of the game. Assisting them in the key position area is the young Tim Mohr who is developing into one of the best young defenders in the AFL. The Giants get belted most weeks in the inside forward 50 comparison and that places a massive amount of pressure on this defense, yet under the circumstances at times it has held up well. The three tall defenders are able assisted by youngsters such as Hampton, Darley, Bugg, Haynes, Kennedy and Corr and it’s this young depth that will build this backline into something special in times to come. This week they face a Pies forward line that is dysfunctional to say the least, it simply isn’t working and hasn’t worked to anywhere near an efficient beast so far this season. Travis Cloke, not unlike Jeremy Cameron at the other end is the stand out forward and it will be interesting to see which of the three Giants tall defenders start on Cloke on Saturday.

The GWS Giants may well go through the 2013 season without a win, in fact with six rounds remaining it seems that the most they could chalk up is one win. Yet when you assess their list you can see why many good judges in the AFL are afraid of just how powerful this team will become over time. They have played 43 different players this year and there is sure to be another massive turnover of players at years’ end but if they can add some experience from other clubs they will improve remarkably next season. If you are being honest though the majority of their improvement will come from within their young playing ranks and this weekend it’s the Magpies fans turn to get a small glimpse into the future of this competition, coming only a week after seeing, and being defeated by the other future power, the Suns. The Giants won’t win this week, but it’s not all about winning for them at the moment it’s all about developing their youngsters and giving them as much exposure to AFL senior football as possible.

TEAMS

Collingwood v Greater Western Sydney
Round 18
Saturday 27 July
MCG, 4.40pm

Collingwood
B: Nathan Brown, Nick Maxwell, Ben Reid
HB: Harry O’Brien, Heath Shaw, Marley Williams
C: Steele Sidebottom, Brent Macaffer, Luke Ball
HF: Jamie Elliott, Brodie Grundy, Dane Swan
F: Dayne Beams, Travis Cloke, Josh Thomas
Foll: Jarrod Witts, Scott Pendlebury, Jarryd Blair
Int: Tyson Goldsack, Lachlan Keeffe, Ben Sinclair, Sam Dwyer
Emg: Ben Kennedy, Kyle Martin, Caolan Mooney

IN: Jarryd Blair, Nathan Brown, Brodie Grundy, Harry O’Brien
OUT: Ben Hudson (calf), Paul Seedsman (calf), Andrew Krakouer, Caolan Mooney (omitted)

NEW: Brodie Grundy (19, Unley/Sturt)

 

GWS GIANTS

B: Joshua Bruce, Tim Mohr, Curtly Hampton
HB: Nicholas Haynes, Phil Davis, Callan Ward
C: Tom Scully, Thomas Bugg, Will Hoskin-Elliott
HF: Jeremy Cameron, Adam Tomlinson, Mark Whiley
F: Devon Smith, Dean Brogan, Zachary Williams
Foll; Jonathan Giles, Adam Treloar, Dylan Shiel

Int; Taylor Adams, Toby Greene, Sam Darley, Adam Kennedy

Emg; Stephen Gilham, Lachie Whitfield, Liam Sumner

TIP.

Brodie Grundy is in line to make his senior debut this week.

Collingwood will win this game, there is no doubt about that, so the interest then becomes how much of a nuisance can the Giants be to a Magpies outfit that needs a confidence boosting win before they head into 3 very tough games. The absence of Patton and Coniglio does make the Giants a little weaker but it has also given them the chance to expose even more youngsters to positions that they may not have played in other wise.

The Magpies will rest anyone who is sore at all, with Ben Hudson an almost certain out meaning that the Magpie army might get to see the future ruck combination of Witts and Grundy together for the first time. That’s really what this game is about too, both teams still trying out new things in an effort to reach their full potential, even if that potential may not come to fruition this season.

The Magpies will win, although I think the Giants will hang around and take it up to the Magpies at times during the game.

PIES BY 65 POINTS.