AFL Round 11 – Collingwood vs Port Adelaide Match Preview.

It seemed like Collingwood were back on track. Halfway through the third term of a season defining game versus the Western Bulldogs at the MCG the Pies led by 15 points after a goal from first year player Ben Crocker. But there was trouble a brewing, and that trouble was a case of bad luck due to injury. First Alan Toovey was concussed in a bizarre, yet to be explained manner. Then Taylor Adams limped off the field with a severe hamstring injury, yet it would get worse. Forwards Alex Fasolo and Darcy Moore, the pies two leading goal kickers this season, both went down with broken bones in their shoulder regions. The Magpies were unable to use their interchange for the entire final term and the Dogs over ran them effectively stealing a 21 point win. It was a bitter blow for coach Nathan Buckley and his team after the fight the Pies have shown in the last 3 weeks.

It’s not over yet though, there’s still a long way to go this season. This Sunday the Magpies get maybe their last chance to keep their faint finals hopes alive against Port Adelaide at the MCG. The Power only sit one game ahead of Collingwood with a 5-5 win/loss record after 10 games. It”s been a strange season for Port so far this season. At their best, they have been very impressive, but at times they have look disinterested and unable to execute the simplest of skills. Last week was a good one for them though, as they traveled to Alice Springs and easily dispatched of Melbourne to the tune of 45 points. It is arguably the best overall game from the Power so far this season and leaves them sitting just outside the top 8.

Of course these two sides have some history, mainly dating back to the 2002 and 2003 seasons when they faced off in two key finals. The Pies won both the 02 Qualifying final and the 03 Preliminary final but Port did get some revenge back by beating Collingwood at the MCG in the 2013 Elimination final. They don’t like each other, that’s been clear for a long time and this game is sure to have plenty of feeling in it.

COLLINGWOOD PREVIEW

Collingwood have some headaches going into this game, that’s for sure. The four likely outs (assuming Toovey misses too) create a gap in the Pies side that can’t be filled naturally. The loss of Fasolo and Moore is the biggest concern. They have combined for 36 goals so far this season and many more if you count goal assists and scoring chains they’ve been involved in. Travis Cloke is the obvious inclusion and most will hope the enigmatic key forward does return this week. The good news for Collingwood though is there are things that are working well for the first time this season. The Pies midfield is firing and the backline has held up well the past 3 weeks. Jeremy Howe has been one of the revelations of the season since moving down back. He has been in the Pies best players the last 3 weeks and his mix of pace, skill and aerial ability has seen him assist the likes of Reid and Frost immensely. Levi Greenwood is another one who has found form too. The ex Kangaroo was really struggling a few weeks back but since being switched into the middle as the Pies number one defensive midfielder (tagger) he’s performed really well. He is likely to be asked to take one of Wines, Boak or Gray this week and if he is effective in his role once again it will give the Pies a chance to dominate in the middle.

And they may need that help, as although the Pies ability to win the clearances has improved in the last 3 weeks, it’s still an area of concern. Collingwood also sit last for hitouts won, a stat that can’t help their midfield out much at all. It’s not surprising when you have a young ruckman like Brodie Grundy supported by another inexperienced player in Mason Cox, but it is a concern. The loss of Taylor Adams won’t help things either and they come up against a Port side ranked in the top 5 for clearances, which is somewhat surprising as Port only rank one spot above the Pies for hitouts. Most games seem to be won or lost in the midfields and this game may be another one. Collingwood will consider some assistance with the likes of Macaffer, Aish and Goodyear all performing well before the VFL bye last weekend. The Pies forward line will be the place to be fixed first though, and that will be the focus of selection this week.

Apart from the obvious choice in Cloke, others who may be considered to bolster the Pies forward structure include Witts, Aish, Goldsack, Macaffer, Marsh and Brown. Those last two would come in as defenders and maybe allow Oxley, Reid or Howe to move forward. Marsh and Goldsack deserve a shot for sure based on VFL form but the senior backline is going that well that Nathan Buckley may be hesitant to make significant changes to it. The effort and intensity has been there from the Pies in recent weeks though and if that is there again on Sunday they will believe they can get a win here.

 

PORT ADELAIDE PREVIEW

Port Adelaide are somewhat of an enigma in the AFL world. There’s this myth that when they play “Port Adelaide football” they are unbeatable, yet since the end of season 2014 they’ve been very beatable indeed. Halfway through that season (2014) the Power were on top of the ladder and many were thinking they would be a premiership chance. They fell away a little towards the end of that home and away season but redeemed themselves in the finals winning 2 games and then losing an epic preliminary final to Hawthorn by 3 points. Since then though Port haven’t looked like make the top eight but maybe their performance in recent weeks gives some promise that they are coming back. They certainly have plenty of talent on their list even with the suspension of ex Essendon players Angus Monfries and Patrick Ryder affecting them this season.

Missing Monfires and Ryder from that forward line has placed plenty of pressure on others to perform and the results have been inconsistent to say the least. Their forward line now basically revolves around 4 players in Wingard, Dixon, Young and Westhoff. Aaron Young is the one that most don’t know too much about. He’s had a great start to season 2016 and already has notched up 21 goals in 9 matches. Young has made the job easier for Dixon and Wingard and last week it showed as Dixon was able to break free and kick 5 goals in the win over Melbourne. They will come face to face with an improving Collingwood defense. Reid, Frost, Oxley, Maynard and Howe are starting to form a partnership down back that is working well and will test out the dangerous Power forward line on Sunday.

Port’s midfield should be their strength and recently it has been. Port rank in the top 5 in the league for clearances and contested possessions and all of this is despite being ranked 2^nd worst for hitouts. The Power midfield is star studded too with Boak, Wines, Stewart, Impey, Hartlett and Gray all capable of tearing the game apart if allowed too much free reign. The ruck is an area of concern with Matthew Lobbe really struggling to the degree that Jackson Trengove is now being asked to do most of the ruck work solo. They face off against a Collingwood midfield that seems talented enough but the loss of Taylor Adams and Dane Swan has effected it’s output for sure now. Finally too Port come up against an AFL senior side that is worse in the ruck then they are and this should lead to them winning the midfield battle.

The Power’s backline is the area of greatest concern for coach Ken Hinkley you’d assume. Jack Hombsch, Cameron O’Shea and Paul Stewart are likely to be given the chance as key defenders against a Magpies forward line that has now been decimated by injury. Stalwart Alapite Carlile seems to have lost all form and is resigned to the SANFL for now. Where Port do seem to excel down back is rebounding the ball out of defensive 50 and against a Magpies team that has allowed plenty of end to end scores Port should be able to clear the ball out of defense quite easily. The likes of Pittard, Byrne-Jones and Polec will help with that of course. The will he or won’t he play debate surrounding Travis Cloke will decide a lot of the final matchups in this area of the ground. Whether Cloke plays or not may well decide just how easy the Port defense has it on Sunday.

This is a massive opportunity for the Power to kick start their season and get right back in the fight for a spot in the final 8. They should see coming to the MCG as a big moment in their season and a game they should win. It won’t be easy though against a now competitive Collingwood team so Port will have to bring a four quarter effort, something that has been missing most weeks in 2016. The return of Broadbent will help and as long as there’s no ill effects from playing in the warmer conditions of Alice Springs the Power will be confident of winning this game.

 

TIP

Despite the loss against the Dogs last Sunday and the subsequent loss of several players to injury Collingwood surprisingly are betting favourites to win this game. I say surprisingly because Port seem to be in the better form, at least based on last week’s performances. The area that Port will seek to dominate here is their forward line. If they can get it forward quickly and cleanly they will be confident of putting a score on the board that will be hard to beat.

But the Pies defense has improved dramatically in recent weeks, restricting the Lions, Cats and Dogs to low scores. That’s where the Pies will look to win this game, they will strangle Port around the stoppages and try and make it a low scoring, four quarter slog. If Nathan Buckley’s men can achieve that I can see them coming away with a win as they over run a tiring Port Adelaide side late.

MAGPIES BY 13 POINTS

 

VFL

After a bye for the annual state game last weekend the Collingwood VFL side returns to action on Saturday. The VFL Magpies will travel out to Werrribee to play the North Melbourne aligned Tigers in a crucial round 9 fixture. Start time is 2pm.

AFL Round 11 – Collingwood vs GWS Match Preview.

Collingwood and the GWS Giants have started the 2015 season in a sensational manner. At the beginning of the season no one in the media tipped either to play finals. Yet after ten rounds both are positioned well ahead of expectations with a respective 7-3 win/loss record. The two clubs have been impressive in 2015 with wins over more experienced sides both at home and on the road. Both clubs are also following a similar plan when it comes to building their lists. They are primarily relying on youth to push them up the ladder and current evidence suggests it is working.

This Sunday at the M.C.G. the two will clash in a vital round 11 fixture. The winner of this game will move to 8-3, which for either side would have been almost unthinkable at the start of the season. The Giants don’t get the chance to play on the biggest stage in Australian sport too much so they will see this as a huge game for many reasons.

Being that this is only the Giants 4^th season in the AFL there isn’t a lot of history between the Pies and Giants but some of the clashes have been memorable. The first time the Giants came to the MCG against the Pies was in 2013 and they gave the stronger Pies outfit a real scare with boom youngster Jeremy Cameron dominating early on. Although the Magpies ran away with a 40 point win the final margin didn’t show just how impressive the young Giants had been. Last season, once again, they only met once but it was the closest of the 3 games between the two yet. This time at home, the Giants started really well against the Pies and held a 10 point lead at three quarter time. The more experienced Collingwood team eventually won a real tough contest by 8 points but once again the Giants put up a fight. This weekend will be only the fourth side the two have clashed and although the Pies hold a 3-0 record over the Giants will feel they have every chance of notching up a big win on the M.C.G.

RECENT FORM

Some say that Collingwood haven’t beaten anyone, that they don’t deserve to be sitting inside the top 4 on the AFL ladder, but guess what? They are. It’s taking some hard work too, with a fighting come from behind win against North Melbourne two weeks back and a hard fought win over a gutsy Melbourne outfit on the Monday just past. That win over North Melbourne was nothing short of staggering, as the young Magpies, missing several key players, came from 39 points down at half time to win by 17. The game versus the Demons on the Queen’s Birthday holiday was also a tough encounter for the Pies. The Dees treated it like their grand final and the scores were level nearing three quarter time. From there though the Magpies took over, with Travis Cloke kicking 7 goals straight and young Adam Oxley having the game of his short career down back with 30 possessions and 14 marks. It was another solid win for a Magpies team going places.

Unlike Collingwood GWS are getting applause from the media for their start to the season. That’s totally understandable given the youth of the club and the comparative position to the other expansion club, the Gold Coast Suns. What the Giants have been able to do so far this year is make their two home grounds, Startrack Oval in Canberra and Skoda Stadium in Sydney into fortresses. They haven’t lost a game at either venue in 2015 and that’s very impressive in itself. The stand out victories for the Giants have been over the reigning premiers Hawthorn and the improving Adelaide Crows. At the time the Hawks win was described as the greatest in the club’s short history. Last weekend the Giants won again at home over the struggling Lions by 30 points. They never looked troubled and it sets up one of the most important games in the club’s history so far.

COLLINGWOOD PREVIEW

Collingwood are travelling pretty well really. After starting the season with a 4-1 record and now sitting at 7-3 after 10 games the Magpies really have set themselves up for a crack at the finals. Last season the Pies were in the same position though before an enormous amount of injuries hit the club and they fell away to finish 11^th. This year so far at least the Magpies injury list hasn’t looked as bad as the 2014 version. Ben Reid and Levi Greenwood are the two still missing who would be automatic selections in the seniors, and Reid could maybe return after the bye. Greenwood is likely to play his first VFL game for the Pies this Sunday also. What has impressed many about this 2015 version of the Magpies is their youth. Players such as Oxley, Ramsay (before he got injured), De Goey, Elliott, Seedsman, Witts, Grundy, Langdon, Frost, Crisp and Williams have all made an impact in different ways. Young Jordan De Goey may be the best of them all though, taken with pick 5 in last year’s national draft the 19 year old reminds many of a young Michael Voss with his strength in the midfield and his vision in traffic. Twice now De Goey has tallied 9 tackles in a game, and his tackles are the type that stick. That’s where the future improvement lies for this Collingwood team too, much like the Giants their young draftees are on the verge of really making an impact on the competition.

This weekend against the Giants the Pies will go in with a relatively strong squad of players to choose from. Jarryd Blair is the only one under and injury cloud out of the win over the Demons with an ankle sprain but he should be right to take his place. Jarrod Witts (illness) and Taylor Adams (toe) were late withdrawals from the squad on Monday and both will need to pass fitness tests to regain their places in the selected 22. The VFL performed quite well once again on the weekend despite coming up short out at Casey fields. Patrick Karnezis, Sam Dwyer and Jonathon Marsh would be the main three pushing for promotion from that side. The coaching staff will almost certainly want to play two ruckman so they will be hoping Witts overcomes his illness and is ready to play on Sunday. Collingwood’s problem so far this season has been lapses in games where they’ve allowed the opposition to totally dominate for a period of the game. It’s something that can be put down to the youth of the side but it’s also a problem that will be addressed and needs improvement with some very tough games to come soon.

OPPOSITION ANALYSIS

The Greater Western Sydney Giants have begun to make their home grounds into veritable fortresses. They haven’t lost any of their 5 home games so far this season and that’s a great platform for a young team to build off. The obvious next step is develop an ability to win on the road. The Giants only two wins away from home this season have come against lowly teams in the Saints and Blues, although both wins were impressive. That alone shows how important this game is for GWS, they have a chance to really make a statement on the biggest stage of all and move to a very strong 8-3 record. Club captain Callan Ward may have been right when he stated that this is the biggest game in the Giants short history.

The Giants forward line has the potential to be one of the scariest for opposition defences in the entire AFL. Led by the emerging superstar Jeremy Cameron, Cam McCarthy and James Stewart it already is a formidable task for most AFL teams to over come. Cameron is on target to kick over 60 goals this season while McCarthy has emerged as a clear number 2 target and could kick over 50 himself. The third forward option isn’t as clear with Stewart’s inaccuracy at goal leaving his spot in the team a little uncertain, especially with Rory Lobb kicking 7 in a big NEAFL win for the Giants reserves on the weekend. Lobb would also provide ruck support for the indomitable Shane Mumford as Stewart really doesn’t have that side to his game. Where the Giants fall down a little is in regards to crumbing forwards, with no small/medium forward option averaging over a goal a game so far this season.

GWS has developed a backline that is fast becoming one of the best in the AFL. The club was very smart in it’s recruiting of Phil Davis and Joel Patfull. If you take away that one terrible game versus the Eagles in Perth their total points conceded would be very similar to the Magpies. Davis is likely to take on man mountain Travis Cloke, who is fresh off a career best equalling 7 goals while Patfull will line up on Jesse White or the resting second ruck if the Pies go that way with selection. One are that the Giants need to improve on in defense is their ability to rebound out of defensive 50. They currently rank 15^th in that category and against a Pies side that likes to put plenty of forward pressure on, but is open to counter attack, this is an area the Giants will have to improve upon if they are to beat the Magpies.

The Giants midfield talent is that deep that it’s hard to determine who is their starting four really. That’s a positive too, and while there’s still further improvement in this are as their youngsters improve over time they are already a top 5 team when it comes to centre clearances. An area they need to improve in is winning the contested ball around the ground though as they are languishing in 17^th place for contested possessions while the Magpies rank 1^st. Statistics can be deceiving though as the Demons also ranked lowly in that category yet dominated the Pies for large periods in the midfield on Monday. The Giants do possess some of the best young midfielders in the competition with the likes of Smith, Coniglio, Treloar, Whitfield and Shiel all improving at a dramatic rate. Add the experience of Ward and Scully and it’s a formidable central group indeed. The stand out though is Shane Mumford, who may well be one of the best recruits of all time, especially for a young and developing team. If Mumford isn’t the best ruckman in the AFL at the moment he’d be in top 3 for sure, and should dominate against the young Pies ruckman.

The Giants would have targeted this game as one of their stand out fixtures of season 2015, they simply do not get massive games like this on the MCG too often. Selection will be a challenge for the coaching staff too with that massive NEAFL win placing pressure on the 22 who played last week. Also available is Nick Haynes who missed last week’s game with injury. No matter what the final line up is for the Giants they have the talent to worry, and even defeat an equally young Magpies outfit.

TEAMS

Collingwood
B: Tom Langdon, Nathan Brown, Marley Williams
HB: Alan Toovey, Jack Frost, Tyson Goldsack
C: Adam Oxley, Dane Swan, Steele Sidebottom
HF: Jamie Elliott, Jesse White, Jordan De Goey
F: Alex Fasolo, Travis Cloke, Jarryd Blair
Foll: Brodie Grundy, Jack Crisp, Scott Pendlebury
Int (from): Ben Kennedy, Taylor Adams, Jarrod Witts, Travis Varcoe, Tim Broomhead, Brayden Maynard, Paul Seedsman

IN: Taylor Adams, Brayden Maynard, Jarrod Witts
OUT: Nil
NEW: Brayden Maynard (18, Sandringham U18)

GWS GIANTS

FB: Heath Shaw, Joel Patfull, Matt Buntine
HB: Tommy Bugg, Phil Davis, Nick Haynes
C: Toby Greene, Callan Ward, Tom Scully
HF: Ryan Griffen, Cam McCarthy, Devon Smith
FF: Will Hoskin-Elliott, Jeremy Cameron, Lachie Whitfield
R: Shane Mumford, Adam Treloar, Stephen Coniglio

Interchange (from): Zac Williams, Aidan Corr, Andrew Phillips, James Stewart, Dylan Shiel, Josh Kelly, Nathan Wilson

In: Nick Haynes, Zac Williams, Andrew Phillips
Out: –

TIP

This really is a critical game in each clubs respective season. Neither would have thought they could be 8-3 after 11 rounds but after this game that’s where the winner will be. Obviously the Pies and Giants are still inconsistent both from week to week and in games so it makes for an intriguing clash to say the least. The Giants go into this game with the comparatively better injury list but that is off set by the home ground advantage to the Magpies.

I see this being a really tight game, one which ebbs and flows with real periods of dominance from the two clubs. Down the stretch though I suspect Collingwood’s small forwards to be the difference here with Elliott and Fasolo hitting the scoreboard where the Giants won’t.

MAGPIES BY 13 POINTS.

AFL Round 11 – Collingwood vs St Kilda Match Preview.

Collingwood vs St Kilda, whenever these teams are mentioned together two moments in history come to mind immediately, the 1966 and 2010 Grand Finals. In the 1966 season decider the Saints prevailed by a single point over Collingwood in what is still their only senior premiership in AFL/VFL history. The 2010 clash was built up with that clash in mind and a very similar result almost occurred, as in the dying seconds of the game the Saints went forward time and time again with the scores tied. This time though they couldn’t get the winning score and a replay had to be planned for the following week. Seven days later Collingwood got their revenge after 44 years when they won the 2010 Grand Final replay by 56 points in what was their biggest ever winning margin in a grand final. There’s been other moments and clashes in time that have defined the history between these two clubs, such as the John Greening incident in 1972, but those 2 stunning season deciders will stand as the two defining moments.

Four years after those 2 Grand Finals in 2010 and Collingwood and St Kilda meet for the only time this season on Friday Night at Etihad Stadium in Melbourne. The two clubs are in different stages of development with Collingwood only slightly off the main premiership contenders while the Saints are struggling in the bottom depths of the ladder. The Saints started the season better than most expected with 3 wins in their first 5 games but since that round 5 win over Essendon they’ve failed to come out of a game victorious. Collingwood’s form has been inconsistent, with poor performances against Fremantle and Adelaide but top wins against Sydney, North Melbourne and Essendon. St Kilda come into this game refreshed after the bye while Collingwood have only 6 days to recover from a bruising encounter over the Eagles, although getting the win would have made those bruises feel better. St Kilda hasn’t defeated Collingwood since a contest at this ground back in 2010 and they’ll have their work cut out to end that Magpies winning streak this Friday night.

 

COLLINGWOOD PREVIEW

The Magpies got back on track last week with a hard fought win against the Eagles at the MCG. For a lot of the contest Collingwood looked like dropping their second game in a row, as Jack Frost was subbed out with concussion then another key defender Nathan Brown went down with yet another shoulder injury. Somehow though the Pies showed the fight needed to get over the line and record a very gutsy win over a tough team. Brown’s injury was assessed as being so serious that season ending surgery is required although Frost’s concussion was at the mild end of the scale so he’s a chance to return this week.

That win left the Pies sitting in 6^th place and well alive in the hunt for a crucial top four spot with only one win between 2^nd and 6^th on the ladder. Not everything is going the way they want though with Brown’s injury adding to a list of players who are now unavailable for selection. Ben Reid leads that list as the key forward/defender hasn’t played a senior game so far this season. Reid’s absence will be even more felt now with Brown out and Cloke struggling up forward, the versatility of Reid will be crucial to just how far the Magpies can go in 2014. Reid may play in the VFL in 2 weeks time, but obviously won’t be available this weekend.

Collingwood’s selection committee does have a few players to choose from this week with the VFL side notching another strong win and plenty of possible inclusions out of that team. The list of probables would included Karnezis, Dwyer, Seedsman, Martin (able to be upgraded from the rookie list for Brown), Adams, Thomas and of course Lachie Keeffe who is almost certain to return to replace the injured Brown. Kyle Martin deserves a chance at senior level as he’s close to best on ground every week in the VFL but the creative midfielder is still a rookie and needed a long term injury or the round 11 upgrade to play senior football. He may well be the type of player the Pies are after with Jamie Elliott spending more time up the ground over the past few weeks a player who knows where the goals are is required.

Collingwood should win games like this but as we saw against Adelaide a few weeks back no game is a certain win in the AFL so the Magpies will have to turn up to play or risk another embarrassing loss.

 

OPPOSITION ANALYSIS

St Kilda are rebuilding, there’s no need to sugar coat it they are in the process of slowly working their way up the ladder again and their approach for the short term is youth related. That’s the right thing to do for a club who is only 3 full seasons removed from back to back grand final appearances. The Saints may find themselves in 16^th at the moment but there have been positive signs in the first 9 games with some of the youngsters showing extreme potential and some of the more experienced players standing up and delivering for the team. New senior coach Alan Richardson knows Collingwood fairly well having both played and been employed there as a development coach so that might help the Saints this week also.

If the Saints have a strength it’s the midfield with Hayes, Armitage, Montagna, Steven, Newnes, Dunstan and the newly recruiter Billy Longer as the starting ruck. St Kilda sit 5^th for clearances and 8^th for centre clearances which is well above the Pies averages which for some reason are very low at this stage of the year. In fact you’d back the Saints to win more of the ball than the Pies around stoppages which is a strange occurrence when it’s 6^th vs 16^th on the ladder. The Saints still have a decent tagger too in Clinton Jones although at times he’s been playing a more attacking role himself. If St Kilda are to be any chance in this game though they’ll have to restrict the forward impact of the Pies midfielders with Swan, Pendlebury, Beams and Elliott all capable of contributing to the scoreboard.

Nick Riewoldt still leads from the front for the Saints.

The St Kilda forward line doesn’t look bad on paper with the evergreen Nick Riewoldt leading a group that includes Siposs, Schneider, Stanley and Billings but for some reason it hasn’t really put the score on the board, especially in recent weeks. The Saints sit 16^th for total points scored and in a similar vein to the Magpies who sit 10^th overall goal kicking accuracy is one reason for a poor ranking. The Pies and Saints are in the bottom 3 for accuracy at goal in the AFL so this might well be an unattractive game to watch even under the roof at Etihad. The Saints run into a Pies backline this week that has been weakened by injury but somehow it continues to perform well above it’s age and experience. You’d suspect Riewoldt would have to dominate this game for the Saints to be any chance though, he’s just that important to them.

The Saints backline has been hit hard by injury with their 3 main defenders out through injury. The loss of Gwilt, Fisher and Gilbert has left the defense with a young and inexperienced look which simply has not been able to cope most weeks. The good news is they come up against a Pies forward line that really isn’t going well itself. All the focus has been on Travis Cloke with only 10 goals in 9 games but outside of Jamie Elliott there’s not a consistent goal scorer in that Pies attack. The Saints are likely to go with Dempster, Delaney and Bruce as their key defenders so it may well be the game that the Collingwood forward line breaks out and posts a big score.

The Saints have been hit hard by injury to key defenders, are trialling a lot of new players in different positions and have one eye on the future while trying to remain competitive in the present. For the first few weeks they were able to do that but as they’ve run into a few stronger teams St Kilda has struggled to remain competitive in the past few weeks. It doesn’t get any easier this week with a Magpies outfit that needs to start clicking before a tougher run in weeks to come. Realistically the Saints would be happy with a competitive performance here but upsets have happened before in this fixture.

 

TEAMS

COLLINGWOOD
B Nick Maxwell, Jack Frost, Alan Toovey
HB Marley Williams, Lachlan Keeffe, Tyson Goldsack
C Dane Swan, Brent Macaffer, Heritier Lumumba
HF Taylor Adams, Jesse White, Steele Sidebottom
F Jarrod Witts, Travis Cloke, Jamie Elliott
FOL Brodie Grundy, Dayne Beams, Scott Pendlebury
I/C Alex Fasolo, Jarryd Blair, Clinton Young, Tom Langdon

EMG Sam Dwyer, Josh Thomas, Paul Seedsman

IN Lachlan Keeffe, Taylor Adams
OUT Nathan Brown (Shoulder), Luke Ball (Calf)

 

ST KILDA.

B: Dempster      Delaney      Murdoch

HB: Newnes     Bruce         Shenton

C: Montagna     Hayes        Steven

HF: Billings      Riewoldt      Milera

FF: Siposs      Stanley        Schneider

Foll: Longer     Ross          Dunstan

Int: Jones, Ray, Curren, Weller

Emer: Simpkin, Dunell, Saunders

In: Murdoch, Ross
Out: Acres (injured), Webster (omitted)

 

TIP

Despite not clicking in the past two rounds the Magpies should post their 7^th win of the year on Friday night at Etihad Stadium. I’d expect the Saints to start well in what is one of their few prime time games this year but eventually fall away as their inexperience and lack of overall ability starts to show.

Pies will win and win comfortably.

MAGPIES BY 45 POINTS.

AFL Round 11 – Collingwood vs Melbourne Match Preview – Queen’s Birthday.

Consecutive wins, that’s what the Collingwood Football club are after this week as they prepare to face the struggling Melbourne Football Club at the MCG in their annual Queen’s birthday clash. You see the Magpies have gone on a pattern of rotating wins and losses since winning the first two games of the season, and have a great chance to start a winning streak on Monday. Many are also looking at this game as a chance for the Magpies to lift their percentage, which is at a dangerously low level at the moment (97.2) in comparison to the other sides fighting to play finals in 2013. Melbourne have had a woeful season so far, there’s no nicer or more honest way to put it as their only win has come over the win less GWS Giants and even that was an arduous task. Of course as always seems to happen all the pressure has been placed firmly and squarely on their head coach, Mark Neeld, but one has to believe there are deeper problems at the once proud club than just one man sitting in the senior coaches chair. Either way it’s an opportunity for the Magpies on a few different levels to raise both their confidence and their chances of resurrecting a season that has been slightly disappointing itself so far.

PREVIOUS FORM

Chris Dawes was impressive for Melbourne last week.

The Demons have had the season from hell so far this year with injuries to key players and poor form and performance from many and it continued on last week when they lost yet another game by a large margin, this time to Hawthorn by a margin of 95 points. Usually if a team loses a game by 95 points it’s something out of the ordinary but it has become the norm for Melbourne so far in 2013. The Demons had only notched up one goal by half time and despite winning the third quarter by about 2 goals they were never in touch of the Hawks who themselves looked to be in second gear for most of the match, and rightfully so. If there were a positive out of the game for the Dees it came in the form of ex Magpies premiership player Chris Dawes who played his best game for his new club so far, gathering 21 possessions and 12 marks in an impressive performance considering how badly his team was beaten. As always Nathan Jones and James Frawley gave their all and made some impact but overall it was yet another terrible day for the Melbourne Football Club.

Collingwood themselves were struggling a little leading into last Friday’s night game up in Brisbane against the Lions and the club and their fans knew a much needed performance was required against an under manned Lions team and that’s what the Magpies delivered early as they flew out of the bocks with a 5 goal to 1 first quarter, and a 9 goal to 2 first half to set up a rather easy 49 point win. Some Pies fans were frustrated that their side didn’t go on with it in the second half but a win of this margin was really what the doctor ordered and the Pies can now look forward to starting a much needed winning streak for the first time in 2013. There were plenty of stars on the night but the form of developing half back/wingman Paul Seedsman bought a smile to the faces of everyone at Collingwood as he played just about his best game ever for the Pies as he ran hard, used the ball well and set up plenty of scoring opportunities. Darren Jolly and Dane Swan were also back to their best after being heavily criticised during the week and Heath Shaw returned and played a strong defensive role that showed that he is willing to work hard, despite what some media reports suggested. It was a win the Pies needed and will give them confidence going into the Queen’s birthday clash.

COLLINGWOOD PREVIEW

It’s been a frustrating season for Magpies fans so far in 2013 as their team just can’t seem to put two good weeks together in a row and the last two weeks have been no exception with a poor performance against the reigning premiers Sydney then an improved showing last week, all be it against a weakened Brisbane outfit. Injuries of course have been a massive part of the problem with the list of players missing plenty of games including stars like Dayne Beams, Dale Thomas, Alan Didak, Ben Johnson, Clinton Young, Alex Fasolo, Nick Maxwell, Lachlan Keeffe and Luke Ball. Slowly though the injury problem is getting a little better though with Didak and Ball back in the senior side and Keeffe and Young probably available for selection after the bye in a few weeks. The return of Ball though has made the biggest impact so far allowing the remaining midfielders who were working so hard to cover the absences to get a few more “easy possessions” than they previously were. In Ball the Magpies have one of the best contested ball winners in the competition and he has been sorely missed, that’s for sure. Alan Didak returned for his first senior game of 2013 last week but he had to do so after half time due to being the sub for the game against the Lions. He made an impact when he did come on but it will be interesting to see how the Magpie favourite does in a full game on Monday.

At selection this week Collingwood will have the option to include Sam Dwyer and Jordan Russell who missed last week with minor setbacks and they may also consider a few who performed very well in the VFL win at Preston with Jarrod Witts and Jackson Paine leading the way in the reserves side third win in a row. Witts was the star of that game late when he took a diving mark 30 metres out with the team trailing by a few points, went back and calmly slotted the match winning goal in one of the best moments of the young man’s career so far. There are a lot of hopes pinned on the likes of Witts, Broomhead, Grundy and Paine for the future and they showed last week that the future sure is bright at Collingwood.

The Magpies will win this match but selection will give a mindset into how serious the coaching panel are in boosting the teams struggling percentage against a team that at the moment is non competitive.

OPPOSITION ANALYSIS

It really has been a terrible year for the Demons so far in just about every form and facet and leading to this game there isn’t much hope for either the immediate future (a win here) or the rest of the season. The pressure on head coach Mark Neeld has been intense and despite the club board deciding to continue with him for at least one more week the media presence that has surrounded Neeld’s future surely can’t be an assistance for the club. This match is usually the show piece game for the Demons but this year it may see it’s lowest crowd in many a year as the lack of interest in attending Melbourne games has increased as time has gone on. Playing Collingwood always seems to lift the Demons and maybe this may be the catalyst for a season best performance, although there’s plenty to point to yet another thumping for the men in red and blue.

If the Demons possess a strength, and that’s a big if on current form it has to be their forward line, as even in the absence of Mitch Clark it still has some dangerous players inside the forward zone. Led by ex Pie Chris Dawes and the ever exciting Jeremy Howe this forward line should be doing more damage than it is but of course the supply has been poor for the majority of the season so far. Aaron Davey should also make this forward set up even more effective but most weeks there’s a sense of inevitability that he is just playing out his time at the Demons before leaving for a chance to play in finals before his career is finished. David Rodan has added some bite to the Dees midfield and forward line and should do so again. At the moment Collingwood are allowing teams to score at a high rate when they get the ball insider their forward 50 and if the Demons midfield can just provide a few more opportunities for these forwards than they may be able to post a respectable score on Monday.

The Melbourne midfield has been terrible so far in 2013, there’s no way in hiding it either. They rank last for contested possessions and third last for clearances and centre clearances. Co Captains Nathan Jones and Jack Trengove lead the way in the midfield but they really are lacking for support, with only the likes of McKenzie, Matt Jones and Rodan as reliable assistance the Demons must be said to have the weakest and smallest midfield rotation group of any club in the competition maybe apart from the also uncompetitive GWS Giants. If there is a positive for the Dees in the middle it is their ruckman with Mark Jamar and most likely Max Gawn (played very well in the VFL last week) putting up a strong contest against Darren Jolly and whomever the Magpies select as their second ruckman. Jamar has seen to be struggling a little this year but Melbourne ranks 6^th for hitouts in 2013 so they must be doing something right in there. Ex Geelong player Shannon Byrnes may return from injury to bolster this midfield but you really can’t see how they will be able to compete with the talented Collingwood midfield, even with the absences the Magpies are facing at the moment.

The Demons backline has been under extreme pressure all year as a continuous bombardment of opposition forward 50 entries has basically made their job next to impossible and it will only get harder this Monday as their best defender, James Frawley, has suffered a hamstring injury and will not be back for several weeks. Youngster Tom McDonald may come in to give some relief but the backline that will run out for the Demons on Monday looks incapable of holding a Collingwood forward line that will welcome back Travis Cloke and most likely Jarrod Witts. Dunn, Terlich, Watts, Pedersen and Garland, along with McDonald will be asked to restrict the Magpies scoring as much as possible but even though the Melbourne backline does have some talent, the amount of inside 50’s that the Pies are likely to generate is almost certain to ensure that the Pies will just continue to notch up scores as the game goes on. Jack Watts against the Pies down back will be interesting if Neeld persists with him down there, as Watts has a rather colourful past against the Magpies including his debut which is one game he will never forget, probably for the wrong reasons.

It seems like once again Melbourne will front up to the MCG on Monday and expect to face another beating but this day has seen some strange results like a few years back when the Dees drew with the Magpies despite the Pies being a premiership contending team that season. It is the show case day for the Melbourne Football Club and if ever this side was going to put up a better effort and display than it has been this will be the day. The loss of Frawley is a blow though, especially against a well rested Cloke and unless the Demons midfield can lift it’s performance and output this once again will be an ugly result in an ugly year for the oldest club in the AFL.

TEAMS

Collingwood
B: Nathan Brown, Ben Reid, Harry O’Brien
HB: Heath Shaw, Nick Maxwell, Marley Williams
C: Steele Sidebottom, Brent Macaffer, Luke Ball
HF: Jamie Elliott, Quinten Lynch, Dane Swan
F: Ben Kennedy, Travis Cloke, Alan Didak
Foll: Darren Jolly, Scott Pendlebury, Jarryd Blair
Int (from): Marty Clarke, Josh Thomas, Ben Sinclair, Jackson Paine, Kyle Martin, Paul Seedsman, Adam Oxley

IN: Travis Cloke, Adam Oxley, Jackson Paine, Ben Sinclair
OUT: Andrew Krakouer (omitted)

NEW: Adam Oxley (20, Redland QLD)

Round 11 Melbourne team

B: Lynden Dunn, Cameron Pedersen, Dean Terlich
HB: Colin Garland, Tom McDonald, Joel Macdonald
C: Jack Trengove, Colin Sylvia, Michael Evans
HF: Jeremy Howe, Jack Fitzpatrick, Jack Watts
F: David Rodan, Chris Dawes, Aaron Davey
FOLL: Mark Jamar, Matt Jones, Nathan Jones
I/C (from): Jordie McKenzie, Sam Blease, James Sellar, Dean Kent, Luke Tapscott, Max Gawn, Rohan Bail
IN: Colin Sylvia, James Sellar, Sam Blease, Max Gawn, Tom McDonald
OUT: James Frawley (hamstring), James Strauss

TIP

Collingwood will win this game, there is almost no doubt about that so the only decision then is to decide how much they may win it by. Some will say the Pies should be trying to really push hard on Monday for a 100 point plus win, but in the current form and with the injury concerns the Magpies have I can see this being a little closer than most are expecting, the Pies will still win comfortably though.

PIES BY 75.

 

AFL Round 11 – Collingwood vs Melbourne Match Preview.

THE PEOPLE OF GREAT BRITAIN and monarchists all over the world have been rejoicing in the celebrations over the past few days that have saluted the Queen’s Diamond Jubilee, so it is only fitting that this coming Monday Australia celebrates the Queen’s Birthday with a national holiday, although as most would know, in a strange quirk it’s not actually her Birthday on Monday (It’s in April).

On the Queen’s Birthday holiday Monday in Melbourne, Australia, while many spend some time with their families and friends on a rare weekday off, two old rivals will go head to head at the Melbourne Cricket Ground, as the Collingwood and Melbourne football clubs face off in their traditional Queen’s Birthday holiday match in round 11 of the 2012 AFL Premiership season.

Collingwood players celebrate after the 1958 VFL Grand Final

This fixture has been fixed in place by the AFL since 2001, but the roots of Collingwood playing Melbourne on this day, and the rivalry that accompanies the two clubs was forged long ago. In 1958, on the Queen’s Birthday holiday, Melbourne and Collingwood faced off at the MCG in front of what still stands as the largest regular season (non final or Grand Final) crowd in the history of the AFL/VFL, with over 99,000 people turning up. Later that year Collingwood won the 1958 Grand Final by upsetting Melbourne, in a game Melbourne fans still raise anger about to this day. You see in those times Melbourne were nigh on unbeatable, as they won 6 of their 12 premierships in a 10 year span, under the coaching of the great Norm Smith. Also, 4 of those 6 wins, and 2 others before that time came over their arch rivals Collingwood, which proves that the Melbourne and Collingwood rivalry started long before the annual Queen’s Birthday holiday fixture became permanent in 2001. The rivalry really has been around as long as the two clubs have played in the top league (since 1897) with the demographics of the two supporter bases to this day largely representative of the upper class (Melbourne) and the middle to lower class (Collingwood).

Melbourne players celebrate their first win of the year last weekend.

This Monday, it is expected that over 70,000 people will attend the game, and it promises to be a more interesting and competitive game then what it presented as going into the last round, after Melbourne caused the upset of the season, by beating the rampaging Essendon Bombers by 6 points on a cold, wet and windy Saturday night at the MCG. It was a massive result for the whole Melbourne Football Club, who previously had got no where near winning a match, let alone beating a premiership contending team, and the scenes of under fire coach Mark Neeld hugging his players and fellow coaching staff after the siren showed what it meant to that club. The next day Collingwood fronted up at the MCG and looked to boost their percentage against what many consider to be the worst side in the competition, the Gold Coast Suns, and the Magpies did just that, running away with a 97 point win that saw them add 12 percent to their previously lagging team percentage. But the game wasn’t without drama again for the Pies, with ruckman Darren Jolly and reliable defender Alan Toovey pulling out pre game due to soreness, but the moment that scared the wits (no pun intended) out of the Collingwood army was when superstar Scott Pendlebury collided awkwardly with a young Suns player and was taken straight down the race, with what seemed to be a serious knee injury. Pendlebury returned and played out the first half, but he was subbed off at half time and it was later revealed that he had in fact suffered a minor fracture of the tibia bone, which will see him miss this rounds game at least.

Debate raged over whether 53 possessions was enough for Ablett to be the best last week.

Once again though, the Collingwood machine kept rolling, securing a league wide season best 7^th win in a row to move to 8 wins and 2 losses, despite the torrid run with injuries the club has had to endure. The game saw the emergence of yet another young Collingwood star of the future, in just his second game small forward Jamie Elliott showed the talent that saw Collingwood secure him as part of the deal with GWS for Marty Clarke, as the live wire wearing the famous 35 gathered 18 possessions, took 7 marks and kicked 3 goals in a great performance in his first full game (after coming on off the subs bench the week before). The game also saw a great argument break out in the footballing community as Dale Thomas continued his stunning form of late, with a 32 possession, 3 goal game, but was over matched statistically by the Suns captain, Gary Ablett Jnr who put gathered 53 possessions to equal the AFL/VFL record for the number of total possessions in a game set by Greg Williams back in the 1980’s. The argument became who was best on ground, was it the player who had the most possessions but gathered most of those in the back half while his team lost by 97 points, or was it the Thomas who was the most effective due to winning so many contested possessions and kicking the three goals to impact the scoreboard. Most notably, both coaches gave their 5 votes for best on ground to Thomas, which is probably the argument ender.

Apart from Thomas, there were plenty of other great signs for the Pies, as backup ruckman Cameron Wood may well have played his best game for the club, with a 23 disposal, 25 hitout performance that would make the club think twice about keeping Wood in the side when Jolly returns. The sight that probably warmed Magpie fans hearts the most was Nathan Brown’s stunning return, just two weeks after what seemed like possibly his third serious knee injury, as the gun tall defender kept the Suns best forward, Sam Day to just one kick, in a remarkable defensive effort. Overall Collingwood seem to be improving gradually every week, and it will be interesting to see how they cope with the slight rise in class of their opponent this week as compared to last week.

 The Magpies have named Tarrant, Swan and Jolly (as well as the young Seedsman) as their ins for this weekend, with Pendlebury the only confirmed out at this stage. That can’t be a great thing to hear if you are wearing Red and Blue, as Collingwood defeated Melbourne by 88 points on the same day last year with the likes of Swan and Thomas not playing, proving that the Magpies will indeed be a formidable task for the Demons to overcome.

 

Opposition Analysis

The win last week for Melbourne, it’s first of the year, would have bought feelings of relief as much as anything else to the club as they fronted for work on Monday morning. You hear the stories of clubs coaching staffs spending extra hours in meetings, and players being driven harder at training, and while I’m sure Melbourne’s focus won’t have dropped after the win, the intensity of the pressure around the club will have just dropped a notch, and that can only make life easier for everyone involved. But on Monday they would have fronted up and though, oh, we have Collingwood next week, and the planning would have begun in earnest.

The Melbourne team, maybe for the first time this year showed that it can be competitive in a number of key areas for the majority of a match, and that is what they will take forward into this game, for as much as the club has apparently been in crisis, there has been positives on the ground so far in 2012 as well.

Melbourne’s forward line definitely hasn’t had the supply that some others have enjoyed in 2012 so far, but it has had some very promising signs for the future of the football club. Mitch Clark is probably the recruit of the year, big call I know, but if he was at a premiership competing club, he would probably be up there in the Coleman Medal race, and as it is he still sits only 2 goals off leading forwards at other clubs like Geelong’s Podsiadly or Essendon’s Crameri, any way you look at it 21 goals in 10 games in a side that has won one game is a great return. Finding assistance for Clark has been the struggle for Melbourne though, with their next leading goal kicker being Nathan Jones on 11, with no other player having averaged a goal a game this season outside of these two. They have some promising types, with the likes of Watts and Howe still developing, but what the Demons really seem to lack is a dangerous small forward or two, and that may be a missed opportunity for them as holding small forwards has been one of Collingwood’s few apparent weaknesses so far this year.

 The Melbourne backline is a source of pride for the club, and that may be a little surprising to those outside of the club, but they do have talent back there, led admirably by All Australian full back James Frawley, who ironically didn’t play in their win on the weekend, but is a probable in against the Pies on Monday. Also in possible career best form is Jarryd Rivers, coming off a stunning performance against Essendon, when in the absence of Frawley he helped hold the Essendon talls to no goals, and even if the conditions did assist, it was still a remarkable effort. He was ably supported by names like Watts (enjoying the freedom of playing off half back), Nicholson, the captain Trengove and Tom McDonald, who has been another nice addition to the Melbourne backline. The backline has obviously been under significant strain this season, but it seems as if Melbourne are moving in the right direction in terms of a proper defensive structure down back, at least in the long term anyway.

The names of the Melbourne midfield read like a talented group, as you reel off Jamar, Jones, Trengove, Grimes, Magner, Sylvia, Moloney, Mckenzie and Blease, but for some reason this season the Dees midfield just hasn’t produced what it seems capable of. The statistics are damning, with the club only above the Gold Coast Suns in clearances and not much further up the ladder for contested possesions. Yes, they have had injury concerns, and the loss of Tom Scully to the Giants was always going to weaken them, but with Jamar doing his job (helping the club to a top six position in the hitouts category) it has been nothing short of a dismal failure from the Melbourne midfield of 2012. Maybe things have turned after last weeks effort where they easily won the clearances against Essendon, but consistency is the key to credibility in the AFL, and the Melbourne midfield has been nothing if inconsistent so far in 2012. They simply need to maintain the effort they gave last round on a weekly basis if this club is to move forward.

 Melbourne  regain the services of Frawley, Matthew Bate and Clint Bartram this weekend, and they will need every senior player they can get their hands on this week, because although Collingwood may be just as injury struck as the Dees are themselves, the depth of the Demons will be tested to it’s limit against a Magpie outfit that seems to just keep producing talented youngsters, almost at will. But the Demons will be buoyed by their effort, and ultimately a positive result against Essendon, and on their big marque day of the season will look to continue that output against another top four side. An advantage Melbourne may have is in the coaches box, with ex Pies coaching staff members Mark Neeld and Leigh Brown making the move over the off season to Melbourne, and there’s no doubting they will have some inside knowledge on the Magpies lineup this week, even if it has changed slightly in terms of both personnel and game style since they left.

 

Key Matchups;

 

Jolly vs Jamar

I really hope we get to see this matchup, especially after Jamar called Jolly “soft” after the Magpie veteran made some negative comments about ex Melbourne coach Neale Daniher and his time as a Demon. Add that they are two of the best old style rucks in the AFL and you will get a battle that might endure all day long between two players who obviously have great liking for the respective other.

 

Grimes vs Thomas

Melbourne have to tag Dale Thomas, they just have to, he has been granted the freedom over the past two matches and has returned the favour with possibly two best on ground performances after a slowish start to the season. Grimes has the defensive ability to restrict someone like Thomas, yet has the physical attributes to stay with Thomas for a long period of time. Another matchup I’d like to see occur, even as a Collingwood fan.

 

Frawley vs Cloke

I bring up the Cloke matchup every week, and for good reason, because he always attracts the oppositions best defender, with Frawley almost certain to return (he’s been named in the 25 man squad) he will start on Cloke. The ongoing contract negotiations are definitely effecting Travis and his output, and with a star defender like Frawley to deal with his frustrations may just increase during Monday’s game.

 

Brown vs Clark

Clark is in career best form, snubbing his nose at comments from those associated with his old club that he is a better second ruckman then a forward, and if he gets the best defender on the ground as his matchup this week, it may be worth paying the admission price to watch alone. Brown, when fit and playing this season has been in stunning form, and has the ability to shut down and completely nullify even the best forwards in the game.

 

Teams;

Collingwood
B: Harry O’Brien, Nathan Brown, Chris Tarrant
HB: Marley Williams, Nick Maxwell, Martin Clarke
C: Simon Buckley, Dale Thomas, Jarryd Blair
HF: Alex Fasolo, Chris Dawes, Ben Sinclair
F: Dayne Beams, Travis Cloke, Tyson Goldsack
Foll: Darren Jolly, Dane Swan, Steele Sidebottom
Int (from): Alan Didak, Sharrod Wellingham, Jamie Elliott, Tom Young, Paul Seedsman, Cameron Wood, Kirk Ugle

IN: Darren Jolly, Paul Seedsman, Dane Swan, Chris Tarrant
OUT: Scott Pendlebury (leg)

Melbourne
B: James Sellar, Jared Rivers, Tom McDonald
HB: Daniel Nicholson, Jack Watts, James Frawley
C: Jack Grimes, James Magner, Joel Macdonald
HF: Nathan Jones, Colin Garland, Colin Sylvia
F: Jack Trengove, Mitch Clark, Jeremy Howe
FOLL: Mark Jamar, Brent Moloney, Jordie McKenzie
I/C (from): Matthew Bate, Cale Morton, Lynden Dunn, Sam Blease, Bard Green, Luke Tapscott, Rohan Bail

IN: Matthew Bate, Clint Bartram, James Frawley
OUT: No Outs as of yet.

 

Tip.

Dane Swan’s return should help ensure the Magpies run out easy victors.

Collingwood will win, and win comfortably, but between the first bounce of the ball and the final siren there will still be significant challenges for the men in black and white on Monday. Many name this day as Melbourne’s annual Grand Final, and apart from last years woeful effort results do point to the Dees playing better then expected on the Monday holiday each season.

Two years again the Demons pushed the eventual premiers to breaking point, eventually coming away with a draw, and the Pies went into that game as hot as favourites as they will this, so it shows anything can happen in big games. But Collingwood have the class, and even with the absence of the likes of Reid, Krakouer and the big out in Pendelbury, the Magpies on every line seem to be more talented and have an array of talent that is simply deeper then that of the Demons, especially in the midfield with Thomas, Swan, Sidebottom and Beams leading the way.

During the current seven game winning streak the Pies have improved gradually, and there’s no reason to expect yet another improvement, especially with the bye approaching and Collingwood in a situation where they now can leave everything on the table as it were, with no need to be concerned for their personal recovery for the next match. Pies by plenty.

Pies by 46.

VFL

Collingwood’s VFL affiliate travels out to the outer South Eastern Suburbs of Melbourne to play Casey on their home ground on Saturday. The match is at Casey Fields, just outside of Cranbourne and is slated to begin at 2.00pm.