AFL Round 15 – Collingwood vs Carlton Match Preview.

On Saturday night at the M.C.G. the 13^th and 14^th placed sides on the AFL ladder will face off and yet it’s genuinely a big game. It’s Collingwood versus Carlton, and the long and aggressive history of this rivalry means whenever they meet, regardless of ladder position, there’s something on the line. The reasons behind the intensity of this rivalry go right back to the 1910 VFL Grand Final and the aftermath of that Magpies premiership win. Disputes on and off the field around that season decider launched one of the most famous and intense rivalries in world sport, let alone Australian sport. In recent years the rivalry has been seen to decline a little, but within the coaches, players, fans and staff at the clubs it’s still one of the fixtures you circle when the draw comes out each year.

Recent history between the two favours the Magpies, as they’ve closed the gap in the overall standings to just 3 games before Carlton sprung a surprise and defeated Collingwood in round seven by 15 points. As it stands now, with only spot and one win separating them on the AFL ladder, this is a game that either side would expect to win. The form of the Pies and Blues in season 2016 is pretty similar, with respective wins over Geelong, surrounded by losses to teams like St Kilda, Richmond and Melbourne. It’s hard to say who has the better form going into this game though although Collingwood is at least coming off a last start win.

 

COLLINGWOOD PREVIEW

It’s been yet another disappointing season for Collingwood yet it could still get worse. A few weeks back the Pies lost to Melbourne for the second time in the one season, something that hadn’t been seen since 1988. If Carlton then inflict another defeat on Saturday night the record might not be as historic as the double loss to the Demons, but it will probably hurt more. The Pies have dominated Carlton in recent years and to lose to them twice this year would be seen as a disaster. There is hope though, because when the Magpies have turned up, for lack of a better phrase, they have still been a hard team to beat of late. That showed last week when after 2 bad losses and a bye to refresh minds and bodies, the Pies destroyed a fellow struggling team in Fremantle at the MCG. The Dockers were never really in the game as Collingwood recorded it’s 5^th win of the season with a 48 point win. If you combine that with the 2 wins against Geelong and Brisbane this Magpies outfit can still cause trouble for the opposition on it’s day.

In that big win over Fremantle the most promising signs came from the Magpies youth as several youngsters really impressed. Jonathan Marsh, Josh Smith and Brayden Maynard stood strong down back, while Tom Phillips, in only his second senior game, showed enormous potential especially with that effective left boot of his. The senior players also lifted too though, with Treloar, Sidebottom, Pendlebury, Reid, Howe and Williams all helping the Pies to one of their most impressive wins this season. Travis Cloke and Nathan Brown also returned to the team after spending time in the VFL and both were serviceable on the day. The thing that was most noticeable though was the effort and intensity of the Pies players from the first minute through to the last. That hasn’t been seen too often this year and that has brought about questions from fans about why there’s such an inconsistency when it comes to overall effort.

No matter how Collingwood are traveling a win over the old enemy always boosts the club up so this game still has plenty of importance. At selection there doesn’t seem to be the need to make a lot of changes. The VFL side had yet another strong win on the weekend (fifth win in a row) but it’s hard to see anyone from there being promoted this week. Darcy Moore is the talking point this week though with the star young forward likely to be fit to return from a collarbone injury. If Moore does come up, and is deemed fit enough to play seniors, Travis Cloke or Jesse White are the two most likely to be considered for omission. There’s not a lot of future in either of those players, as harsh as that is, but neither will want to miss such a big game as this.

 

CARLTON PREVIEW

It’s not too often that a side sitting in 13^th position after 13 games is happy with their season but for Carlton that is the case. Many tipped them to be a wooden spoon contender again, and while they aren’t exactly pushing to play finals sitting with 6 wins and 5 losses at the half way mark was impressive indeed. The last two weeks have brought them back to reality a little bit but Brendan Bolton’s team has already surpassed expectations. The Blues have done this in a number of ways. Their game plan is visibly more solid and being followed well by the players. They’ve added both young talent but also some much needed experienced talent and it’s made them competitive straight away. Of course they already have one win over the Magpies this season so to do the double would be the icing on top of the seasons’ cake.

Carlton aren’t your atypical AFL team, they rank down the bottom for clearances and contested possessions yet because their efficiency in regards to ball use is high, they are quite effective going forward. Their midfield though does struggle winning the contested ball, with the absence of Murphy, Armfield and Boekhurst obviously effecting that. Patrick Cripps has been remarkable in just his second season though, and is leading the way (by a fair margin) in those 2 main midfield categories. He’s been getting some help in the middle from the likes of Gibbs, Curnow, Kerridge and Wright but the Blues midfield isn’t as deep as most. The good news for them is they run into a Pies midfield that isn’t any deeper. Yes it’s got the top end talent in Pendlebury, Sidebottom and Treloar but like the Blues the Pies rank only fairly for contested possessions and dead last for clearances. Carlton should have the edge in the rucks though with Kreuzer being much more experienced that Grundy.

The Blues backline is still a work in progress, but already in 2016 under a new senior coach it has improved dramatically. The Carlton defense is currently the 8^th best for average points conceded, and considering that a first year player (Weitering) has played a lot of games in a key position role, that’s quite impressive. Of course there’s some experience down back too with Simpson, Rowe, Plowman and Tuohy all helping the youngsters out as they transition into this new look Carlton defense. The Blues do rank just above Collingwood for rebounds from defensive 50 and that’s no surprise given the good ball users they have. Carlton get lucky once again here, as they face off against a Pies forward line missing Fasolo, Elliott and Swan. That should allow their defense to take control of the game at times.

If the Blues have a real weakness, it’s their forward line. Carlton only has 3 players who average over a goal a game and Liam Jones, who most likely won’t play this week, is one of those. Although Carlton sit 13^th on the AFL ladder they have only scored the 17^th most points, leaving them only ahead of Essendon at the moment. That’s not really a shock considering the amount of attacking talent that has left the Blues in recent years, but it has to be a concern for the future. Levi Casboult will be looking to repeat his effort from the first meeting between these two, when he managed to take 11 marks and kick 3 goals. The Pies backline has been better in recent times with Reid, Howe, Williams and Brown forming a strong partnership down back, and they do face off against one of the weakest forward lines in the AFL.

The Blues will obviously see this as a big game on so many levels. First it’s their biggest rival, the team they’ve hated for over 100 years now. Second they are coming off back to back losses and are in danger of losing all that positivity that was around the club after the 6-5 start. On paper they should be winning this game too. They have the shorter injury list when compared to the Pies and their best football this season has been better than Collingwood’s. To win though they will have to play better then they have in the past 2 games but it’s almost a given that they will. At selection there may be a famous name debuting with Jack Silvagni tipped to play his first senior game on Saturday night. It would add another layer on top of an already enticing game.

TIP

This is a damn hard game to tip really. Carlton should go into the game as favourites based off what happened in the first meeting and the relative injury lists. In that first game it was only a burst in the third term from the Blues that decided the game, and with the Magpies having a more stable team now, it should make for a cracking match. It really will be about as close to a final as these two get in season 2016.

You can almost throw recent form out the window here because the two clubs have been so inconsistent this season that it’s hard to judge which version of each will turn up. I’m going to tip the Pies (as usual of course) and I’m basing it on their ability to score. If Darcy Moore returns I can see Collingwood converting their chances better and winning a really close, hard fought game.

MAGPIES BY 7 POINTS

 

VFL

As if one Carlton vs Collingwood game wasn’t enough, the teams will also do battle in the VFL on Saturday in the first leg of a double header. The Collingwood VFL team and the Northern Blues will play at the Holden Centre oval with a start time of 4pm.

AFL Round 3 – Collingwood vs Carlton match preview

The crowd are packed in tight for the 1910 VFL Grand Final

ONE HUNDRED AND TWO YEARS AGO, on October the 1^st, 1910, Collingwood and Carlton faced off for the first time in a VFL/AFL Grand Final, and to put it lightly, all hell broke loose. Early in the last quarter of the 1910 VFL Grand Final a fight broke out, with over 30 of the competing players involved. It was brutal, it was ugly, but the aftermath was where the rivalry really began to get heated. After the Grand Final (which Collingwood won by 14 points) the four players reported for starting the fight were given suspensions ranging from 12 to 18 months. But it was after this that the real ignition point of the rivalry occurred, Tom Baxter had been a star in Collingwood’s premiership season, yet he had been accused of being one of the four instigators and was suspended for 12 months, but fellow Magpies player Richard Daykin stepped forward, signing a declaration that he was the fourth instigator, and not Baxter, and the VFL accepted this version of events. Baxters suspension was quashed, and Daykin received the 12 months penalty instead. Days later, Daykin announced his retirement from the VFL, while Baxter continued on to represent Collingwood in it’s premiership defense. This infuriated Cartlon mainly due to the report from the officiating umpire that stated the fourth instigator had dark hair, when Daykin actually had red hair.

It was the beginning of a rivalry that to this day is considered by most to be the most ardent, passionate and fierce between two sporting clubs in Australia, and one of the most competitive in the world of sport for that matter.

The two clubs have faced off in 243 games in the VFA/VFL/AFL since 1892 (the year Collingwood began it’s life) of which Carlton have won 123 and Collingwood have won 116, with only the 4 draws. Included in those matchups have been 22 finals (Carlton lead 14-8) and most importantly 6 Grand Finals, with the only Collingwood victory in a Grand Final versus Carlton coming in that 1910 VFL Grand Final. There have been many fabled matches since, we all know the stories of the 1970 VFL Grand Final comeback in front of a record crowd, and the Wayne Harmes tap in, supposedly from out of bounds in the 1979 VFL Grand Final, and all of them have added extra spice and meaning to this intense rivalry that has endured the test of time.

This Friday Night, in front of an expected crowd of over 80,000 people, Round Three of the 2012 AFL Premiership Season begins with a clash between these two great rivals, and for the first time in many a year, both teams are genuine premiership contenders. Carlton has started the season on fire, easily winning it’s games against the lowly Tigers and Lions, while Collingwood has had to settle for one win and one loss, after a tough first up match against premiership favourites Hawthorn ended in a loss, followed by a gutsy, hard fought win over the Tigers in tough conditions.

Carlton last played on Thursday Night, while Collingwood had to wait until Saturday Night to get it’s round two game completed, and straight away this grants a favourable advantage to Carlton going into Friday Night’s clash. It was easy to see that the Collingwood coaching staff took the shorter break into consideration both in selection and in the way the team played on Saturday Night.

In the last quarter against the Tigers, with the Pies lead approaching the 50 point mark, the likes of Pendlebury, Thomas, Ball and Sidebottom were noticeably absent from the midfield, especially at the centre bounces. It was obvious new coach Nathan Buckley and his coaching staff were already planning for next week.

Chris Dawes takes a strong mark last week

But the coaching staff didn’t plan on one thing, that being star full back Chris Tarrant going down with a calf injury that will keep him out for the best part of a month, and with fellow tall defender Nathan Brown still a few weeks away from returning to the seniors, the Magpies will be weakened down back once again.

There are positives for Collingwood though, with the likely return of the suspended Sharrod Wellingham, inspirational captain Nick Maxwell and also the season debut of club stalwart Ben Johnson, the latter two from injuries and a lack of match practice respectively.

Nick Maxwell and Sharrod Wellingham return for the Magpies this week

One of the biggest selection questions for Nathan Buckley and the Collingwood match committee was what to do with the secondary ruck position. For most of the pre season and the first two regular season games Chris Dawes has been given the role, as a straight forward replacement for the retired Leigh Brown, but even Buckley himself has admitted that Dawes’ output has been less then what has been expected. With the selected teams now released, we can see that Collingwood has decided to go with genuine ruckman Cameron Wood, at the expense of young forward Jackson Paine. Also out for Collingwood is Paul Seedsman, who showed a bit inn his first two games, and the injured Chris Tarrant. The three inclusions are as expected, Wood, captain Nick Maxwell and small midfielder Sharrod Wellingham have returned.

Opposition Analysis.

Carlton got a dream start to the season thanks to the AFL fixture, with games against likely bottom six teams Richmond and Brisbane, and the Blues took full advantage of this with victories by 44 and 91 points, giving them their best start to a season in years. Carlton fans are rightly excited by the mix of players they now have, and for the first time in over a decade Carlton may actually be a genuine premiership contender.

Carlton’s much vaunted midfield is as strong as it has ever been, in fact it may even be stronger, led by 2 superstars in Judd and Murphy, and ably supported by the very under rated Caraazzo, the consistent Kade Simpson, the experienced Heath Scotland and their own personal tough nut, Mitch Robinson, it is indeed as deep as any other midfield in the leagus. Carlton will also look to rotate several more players through that midfield, with the likes of Gibbs, Armfield, Lucas, Tuohy and Curnow at times playing roles through that midfield.

Since the disastrous departure of Brendan Fevola the Carlton forward line has been disjointed and unproductive against the very best sides, yet it now seems that the Blues may finally be getting the mix right inside their offensive zone. In the first two rounds the Blues have used 3 main talls, Jarrad Waite, Shaun Hampson and the very fit Matthew Kreuzer, and they have been ably supported by experienced small forward Eddie Betts, the enigmatic Jeffrey Gartlett and more then able assistance from the above mentioned midfielders, with Judd leading the way with 3 goals last week. Carlton’s forward line does look more potent than ever, and with Collingwood’s problems down back due to injury, Carlton will see this area as one they can exploit.

If there has been a major problem for Carlton against the premiership contending teams over the past few seasons it has been their backline. For many a year, Michael Jamison has been the only top class tall defender at the club, and due to injury has missed plenty of games, and exposed the rest of the Carlton defenders as not up to elite standard. This season though, Carlton have tried Lachlan Henderson down back, and he has performed admirably against Jack Riewoldt and Daniel Merrett. Carlton’s backline does have an area of strength though, with Bryce Gibbs spending the majority of his time back there in recent times, and Chris Yarran one of the clear best running defenders in the game now, the offensive attack off Carlton’s backline is what they may use to hide their most obvious weakness. Carlton are likely to bring in both Jamison and also Nick Duigan for their first games this season, which will bolster that defense to no end.

While Collingwood may be having trouble figuring out it’s ruck setup, Carlton have a settled on theirs for the time being, with Matthew Kruezer and Shaun Hampson already forming a tough tandem that has destroyed it’s opposition in the first two rounds, more so around the ground then anywhere else.

Carlton look to be finally finding the correct mix to fight to finish in the vital top four, and this game is a massive occasion for the developing Carlton team to show the AFL world if they can match it with the best teams.

But for all the improvement and hype from the media, simply put, if Carlton can not beat their arch rival this week, they may well never reach the heights that the clubs history expects it to.

 

Teams;

 COLLINGWOOD

B: Harry O’Brien, Lachlan Keeffe, Heath Shaw
HB: Nick Maxwell, Ben Reid, Tyson Goldsack
C: Dane Swan, Luke Ball, Sharrod Wellingham
HF: Dale Thomas, Chris Dawes, Ben Sinclair
F: Dayne Beams, Travis Cloke, Alex Fasolo
Foll: Darren Jolly, Scott Pendlebury, Steele Sidebottom
Int: Martin Clarke, Jarryd Blair, Alan Toovey, Cameron Wood
Emg: Tom Young, Jackson Paine, Paul Seedsman

In: Nick Maxwell, Sharrod Wellingham, Cameron Wood
Out: Chris Tarrant (calf), Jackson Paine (omitted), Paul Seedsman (omitted)

CARLTON

B: J.Laidler L.Henderson C.Yarran
HB: N.Duigan P.Bower Z.Tuohy
C: H.Scotland C.Judd K.Simpson
HF: J.Garlett J.Waite M.Murphy
F: M.Jamison M.Kreuzer E.Betts
Foll: S.Hampson A.Carrazzo B.Gibbs
Int: D.Armfield, E.Curnow, K.Lucas, M.Robinson

Emg: B.McLean J.Russell B.Thornton

IN: N.Duigan, M.Jamison
OUT: B.Thornton, J.Russell

 

Tip.

The returning Sharrod Wellingham in action

While all of the hype around this game seems to be favouring Carlton, they are still yet to prove they can match it with the big two, Collingwood and Geelong, and until they do, I find it had to take tip them. The truth is this is Carlton’s first real test of the season, and while Collingwood may well be a few players short of their best team, it will be the best side the Magpies have put on the field in 2012, and that can not be under estimated. Many factors do favour Carlton though, the six day versus eight day break, the relative health of the lists, and the current form of both teams does lead you towards thinking Carlton are a real chance this week.

But the Pies are filled with stars, in their midfield it will be hard for Carlton to contain all of Pendlebury, Swan, Thomas, Ball, Wellingham, Beams, Sidebottom and Blair, while the Magpies will still have the highest quality ruckman on the ground, Darren Jolly, who is back in top form. The Pies forward line is also dangerous to any side, let alone against one with tall defender problems like Carlton. Travis Cloke is the best power forward in the game at the moment, and he looks as if he’s about to have his break out performance for 2012, which doesn’t bode well for the Blues.

Ultimately though, this will be a close game till the end, with both teams desperate to grab those four points to give them a better then expected start to the season. I favour Collingwood based on midfield depth, and a willingness to do the right things for longer then the lesser experienced Carlton side. Collingwood will outlast, outfight and basically outplay Carlton in a thriller.

PIES by 11 points.

VFL

This weekend the Collingwood VFL side ventures out to Preston to play Carlton’s VFL side, the Northern Blues. The game is on Saturday, and starts at 2pm, with Alan Didak and Nathan Brown likely to be the two most important players for Pie fans to keep an eye on.

WEEKLY COLLINGWOOD QUOTE

Each week from now on, I will add a famous quote from the greats who helped form this club, through to the modern day fans and players. This weeks quote (actually it’s a poem) comes from a fan after our first premiership win, in 1896.

“Hurrah for the lads of lusty legs….

Football they play the orthodox way

And kick t’others teeth out.

Hurray for the lads with biceps so strong,

With arms so brawny and bare.

May they trample and pound all their foes on the ground,

And make merry at their despair.”

(Source – “Kill for Collingwood” – R.Stremski –  1986)