AFL Round 3 – Collingwood vs St Kilda Match Preview.

Four seconds, that’s all that separated Collingwood from a disappointing start to the 2016 AFL premiership season. Last Friday night at the M.C.G. Brodie Grundy snapped the winning goal to put the Magpies in front with only four seconds left on the clock. If he had missed, dropped the ball or any other eventuality had ensued Collingwood would be near the bottom of the AFL ladder with an 0-2 win/loss record. As it is, the goal went through, the Magpie army went off it’s collective nut (that may be an understatement) and Collingwood have a 1-1 record after playing two of the top five placed teams from last season.

That goal, and that win, places the Magpies in a decent position moving forward. This Saturday, the Pies will return to the M.C.G. for a rare Saturday afternoon game against St Kilda. The Saints have started the season on a poor note, losing two games to Port Adelaide and the Western Bulldogs by considerable margins. They sit on the bottom of the AFL ladder and need a win to give their fans some hope for the rest of the year. St Kilda is using this home game at the M.C.G, another rarity, to celebrate their one and only AFL/VFL premiership, the 1966 triumph by one point, over Collingwood of course. They are well within their rights to do that but it really shouldn’t have a bearing on the final result.

COLLINGWOOD PREVIEW

The stunning come from behind win over Richmond really has made a huge difference to this Collingwood outfit going forward. What was really impressive though was the performance of four players in particular. Ben Reid returned for only his 10^th game in the last 3 seasons and he was immense across half back. The all Australian defender looked back to his best, taking intercept marks and delivering the ball with amazing accuracy over long distances. Helping him out down back was Jackson Ramsay, a player who most outside of Collingwood probably see as a surprise. But early last year, before Ramsay went down with injury, he was one of the reasons why the Pies had started the 2015 season so well. His courage, ability to defend well against his opponent and accurate ball use is something this Magpies team desperately needs.

Further up the ground and Adam Treloar performed remarkably well considering the pressure that was on him pre game. He chose Collingwood over Richmond during the trade period and he backed it up, with a 32 possession game that included a game high 8 inside 50 deliveries. Treloar was vital in the last few minutes delivering the final inside 50 that eventually led to the Grundy match winning goal. But of course the man that stood out was Alex Fasolo, in a career best performance where the live wire forward booted 6 goals straight, including 2 of the final 3 goals, and 3 goal assists. For Fasolo it was vindication of his request to stay forward more rather than being used as part of the midfield rotation.

The Magpies have endured through a tough opening two games of the season and now the draw opens up for them. Over the next 6 weeks the Magpies play what will probably turn out to be the bottom five sides in the competition (with a trip to Perth to play the Eagles also). It starts on Saturday against the bottom placed side. The Magpies came out of that win over the Tigers in a relatively healthy state, there were no new injuries in either the seniors or the VFL on the weekend. Talking of the VFL there are numerous players pushing their case for selection in the seniors with strong recent performances in what have been practice matches for the Magpies reserves team. Matthew Goodyear, Jesse White, Jeremy Howe, Alan Toovey, Tyson Goldsack, Jonathan Marsh and Rupert Wills will all consider themselves a chance of playing on Saturday in the seniors. Also in contention to return is ruckman Jarrod Witts who missed the game last week due to split webbing in his hand. That depth allows coach Nathan Buckley to select a 22 that matches up well based on the opposition. This is a game Collingwood will expect to win but they will have to perform better than they have over the first two rounds to be assured of a victory here.

ST KILDA PREVIEW

St Kilda are a team in transition, trying to climb their way back up the ladder after four seasons of failing to make the finals. Before that recent period the Saints had enjoyed their best finals appearance run in the club’s history, as they made it to September 7 out of 8 years leading up to 2011. Two years ago they bottomed out (literally) and last season they finished 14^th which may be a sign that the only way is up from here. Their first two games of this new season have been hard to judge. They started the season with what seemed like a decent effort against the highly touted Port Adelaide, and were able to score 100 points in that game despite losing by 33 points. The Saints would have been less enthusiastic about their most recent game though, the 57 point loss on Saturday night to the Bulldogs at Etihad Stadium. It was a disappointing night for the Saints despite Nick Riewoldt celebrating his 300^th game milestone. The Saints were never in the game as the rampaging Dogs dominated in all areas. They will have to improve upon that performance or face a third loss in a row to start the season.

If there’s one area of the ground that this St Kilda team can match it with most it has to be their midfield. In 2015 the statistical output of the Saints midfield wasn’t that impressive with a ranking of 14^th for clearances. Straight away though, in only two games, there’s been a remarkable difference in this area. The Saints after two rounds have won more clearances than any other team, and while the sample size is small it’s a great sign. This central core should be a good clearance team too with the likes of Montagna, Newnes, Savage, Armitage, Steven and Weller all able to win the hard ball. One area that has also improved so far this year is the ruck. Last season the Saints were down in the bottom few for average hitouts (along with the Pies). Tom Hickey has had an impressive start to 2016 though and with 56 hitouts in round 1 versus Port Adelaide he showed he can dominate the less than elite ruckman of the AFL.

It’s hard to distinguish which area of the ground is worse for the Saints, their defense or their forward line. Both has a massive reliance on one experienced key position player, with the indomitable Nick Riewoldt in the forward line and the ever reliable Sam Fisher down back. To be fair the backline probably has more experience and talent than the forward line does at the moment, with Dempster, Gilbert, Geary and Roberton at least having plenty of games under their belt. They do struggle to stop the opposition from scoring though with St Kilda rated the worst one on one defensive side in 2015 and allowing scores of 133 and 93 in the first two rounds of 2016. Of course being able to score 100 points in round one was a very positive sign with Lonie, Bruce and Weller joining Riewoldt as those who managed to kick multiple goals. That didn’t eventuate in the second game though so it will be interesting to see how both defense and attack works for St Kilda on Saturday.

Pressure is what the Saints do well though, and senior coach Alan Richardson has made no secret of that since he arrived at the club. Last season St Kilda were in the top four in the league for pressure deferential and it’s fair to say it had a hand in each of their 6 (and a half) wins in season 2015. That pressure probably hasn’t been as good in the first two games although it did show signs at times versus both the Dogs and Port of returning to the levels of last season. To improve though, this St Kilda team needs it’s youngsters to start having an impact on games, something that hasn’t happened too often recently. But if they can pressure the Collingwood players they may be able to force enough turnovers to be in with a chance late in the game.

TEAMS

Collingwood
B: Ben Sinclair, Nathan Brown, Tom Langdon
HB: Brayden Maynard, Ben Reid, Marley Williams
C: James Aish, Adam Treloar, Levi Greenwood
HF: Jarryd Blair, Darcy Moore, Jordan De Goey
F: Alex Fasolo, Travis Cloke, Jeremy Howe
Foll: Brodie Grundy, Scott Pendlebury, Taylor Adams
Int: Tyson Goldsack, Jack Crisp, Matthew Goodyear, Adam Oxley
Emg: Brent Macaffer, Jesse White, Alan Toovey

IN: Tyson Goldsack, Matthew Goodyear, Jeremy Howe, Brayden Maynard
OUT: Jackson Ramsay (knee), Jack Frost, Corey Gault, Brent Macaffer (omitted)
NEW: Matthew Goodyear (19, Calder U18), Jeremy Howe (25, Melbourne)

TIP

This matchup seems like an easy one to decipher, with Collingwood the likely winners. However, St Kilda have more quarters than the Pies in the first two games (3 against 1) so the Saints aren’t without a hope. The other thing in St Kilda’s favour is the health of their list, they aren’t missing 4-5 of their best 22 like the Magpies are, which evens it out once again. The location though is to Collingwood’s advantage, with the Saints losing 4 of their last 5 games at the M.C.G.

Coincidentally the two teams met in round 3 last season, also at the M.C.G. and it was Collingwood who ran away with a commanding 74 point win. I expect this game to be a lot closer than that, especially with the Pies not hitting top form yet and with the players they are missing. Ultimately though the Magpies should be too good for the Saints on Saturday and extend their unbeaten streak over St Kilda to 10 games.

MAGPIES BY 16 POINTS

AFL Round 3 – Collingwood vs St Kilda Match Preview

“They won’t win a game all season”, that was the rather blunt prediction from Fox Sports commentator David King when assessing St Kilda’s chances in 2015. Two rounds in, and they’ve won a game. The Saints shocked many in the AFL world when on Saturday they travelled to the Gold Coast and dominated the media loved Suns. King wasn’t alone in his thinking though, most good judges had the Saints as wooden spoon favourites leading into 2015, but after two games it’s clear to see St Kilda is on the right track. This Friday night the Saints will look to notch yet another unexpected win when they face Collingwood at the M.C.G. The Magpies themselves weren’t expected to reach any great heights this season, although with one impressive win and one very unimpressive loss, the jury is still out on the biggest club in the land.

Of course these two clubs have some rather important recent history, playing off in two grand finals in one season. The drawn decider of 2010 will go down as one of the greatest AFL Grand Finals of all time, and while the replay the week after was one sided, the two will forever be linked due to the 3 Grand Finals they have played in against each other (1966 being the first). Since then however Collingwood and St Kilda have taken a gradual decline down the ladder, with the Saints bottoming out last season just 4 years removed from that epic 2010 final series. There are good signs though with plenty of youngsters and potential stars on the lists of the respective sides.

PREVIOUS FORM

Collingwood started the season really well with a 12 point win over Brisbane at the Gabba, but last weekend at Etihad Stadium in Melbourne they came crashing down to earth with a 27 point loss to the Adelaide Crows. The Pies were never really in the contest and despite the efforts of captain Scott Pendlebury, Taylor Adams and Dane Swan in the midfield, Collingwood were smashed in the clearances when it counted. The final margin flattered the Magpies too, as they trailed by 56 points at three quarter time before the Crows tired noticeably. It was a wake up call for the Pies after a good first up win, and they’ll have to improve their midfield depth at selection this week.

The Saints headed up to the Gold Coast to play the Suns and started the game as massive under dogs. The second quarter was stunning from the visiting team though as St Kilda stacked on eight goals to the Suns one to all but seal a morale lifting win for the club. The 28 point win came after a competitive loss to the Giants in round one and shows that this Saints team isn’t as bad as most thought it would be. The star from the win over the Suns was Josh Bruce, an ex Giants player who was recruited as a defender but is definitely a forward now. Bruce kicked 6 goals and took plenty of strong marks and with youngster Patrick McCartin soon to debut the St Kilda forward line will be dangerous even when Nick Riewoldt inevitably retires.

COLLINGWOOD PREVIEW

After two rounds of the season once again injuries are cruelling the Magpies chances of showing just how good they can be. For three quarters up in Brisbane they looked like a top 8 side, only to lose Steele Sidebottom to a broken thumb and fade poorly. Last weekend against the Crows the absence of Sidebottom and Levi Greenwood (as well as the suspended Josh Thomas) meant that Adelaide just ran rampant through the middle of the ground. There aren’t too many short term fixes either, with Sam Dwyer the only experienced midfield player available for selection from the VFL. The rest are kids, with De Goey, Freeman, Goodyear and Maynard all chances to come in this weekend. Then there’s the injuries that the Pies suffered in the loss to the Crows. Ben Sinclair’s hamstring injury is quite severe, and he’ll be out for at least 4 weeks, while captain Scott Pendlebury, tough midfielder Taylor Adams and new recruit Travis Varcoe all suffered leg injuries on the night. It’s unlikely that all 3 of those players will miss, but with obvious injury concerns it’s likely that at least one will miss, weakening the Pies even more.

There are positives for Magpies fans though, the performances of Tim Broomhead, Adam Oxley and Tom Langdon stood out on a bad night for the club. The 22 year old Oxley, in only his 4^th senior game, was one of the best for the Magpies with 33 disposals and 12 rebounds out of defensive 50. In partnership with Langdon and the experienced Alan Toovey they provided Collingwood with some drive off half back at least, although the number of forward 50 entries was overwhelming at times. That’s where Collingwood is at too, they have to rely on their youngsters now to improve, and while many are still running around in the VFL, it’s a good bet that by the latter part of season 2015 the Magpies line-up will look different to what it does now.

At selection Jarrod Witts, Sam Dwyer, Nathan Freeman, Patrick Karnezis and Corey Gault will come into contention with the injury concerns ultimately deciding how many changes need to be made. Witts will be a welcome addition with Brodie Grundy having to ruck almost solo over the first two weeks. The Pies should still be able to win this game, but the Saints won’t be an easy opponent to over come.

OPPOSITION ANALYSIS

St Kilda came into season 2015 not expected to do anything at all really. It was seen as a season where they’d play the plethora of young talent they had on the list, have their good moments but ultimately end up right near, or on, the bottom of the ladder. The win over the Suns on Saturday has changed all that, the Saints now must be looking at that as their standard of performance, something they will seek to recreate in each game from now on. The best players versus the Suns show why St Kilda won, with the only experienced player in the list being Sam Fisher. The Saints, not unlike the Magpies know that overall improvement will come mainly from the first to fourth year players if they are to out perform most expectations of them.

St Kilda’s midfield really struggled last season, in fact it was ranked close to the bottom of the league for contested possessions and clearances among the 18 clubs. Already in 2015 there’s been signs of improvement though, even if they lost in those two categories to the Suns and Giants. Most wouldn’t recognise the Saints midfield now, with names like Newnes, Steven, Armitage, Geary and Shenton, Savage and Sinclair rotating through the middle. The absence of Leigh Montagna last week didn’t even hurt too much although he is expected to miss again this week against the Pies. The Saints ruckman Billy Longer has been a nice recruit too, a high draft pick by the Lions he was a steal for the Saints and is just starting to perform at a top level. They come up against a mightily weakened Magpies central grouping and this is an area the Saints have to break even in to have any chance of winning.

Josh Bruce had a break out game as a forward last week.

On face value the Saints forward line had a poor season in 2014 with only Melbourne scoring less total points then St Kilda. Their midfield was as much to blame as the forward line though, and with the addition of Josh Bruce and Nick Riewoldt still trying his heart out, the Saints attack looks better already. Ahmed Saad and Tim Membrey also add options up forward although the Magpies defense is their strength area at the moment. St Kilda will rely on Riewoldt and Bruce a lot against the Pies but will also need assistance from the midfield or face wasting a probable advantage in inside forward 50’s.

In season 2014 St Kilda had the most total points scored against them in the entire AFL, showing that their defense was in a transition period much like the rest of their team. The Saints still rely on Sam Fisher as their stalwart down back and Luke Delaney offers able support to top off the key position stocks. They do possess decent run and attack out of defense with Roberton, Savage, Geary and Dempster all providing some drive. Whether or not Collingwood decides to add a third tall to the mix to stretch St Kilda’s defense this is the area of the ground that will be of most concern for the Saints going into this game.

St Kilda came into this season with no external expectations and have played a brand of football that is both exciting and without the burden of pressure. The Saints are definitely headed in the right direction with their youngsters ready to take over from the experienced players at the club and move them forward. This Friday night is a great opportunity for them to really capitalise on a weakened Magpies outfit. The Saints will go into the game with a far healthier list and although they are playing the Pies on their home ground you would expect them to push Collingwood to the limit.

TEAMS

Collingwood
B: Alan Toovey, Nathan Brown, Marley Williams
HB: Tom Langdon, Jack Frost, Jackson Ramsay
C: Travis Varcoe, Dane Swan, Jack Crisp
HF: Jamie Elliott, Jesse White, Tim Broomhead
F: Tyson Goldsack, Travis Cloke, Jarryd Blair
Foll: Brodie Grundy, Taylor Adams, Scott Pendlebury
Int: Sam Dwyer, Paul Seedsman, Adam Oxley, Corey Gault
Emg: Darcy Moore, Patrick Karnezis, Jordan De Goey

IN: Sam Dwyer, Corey Gault
OUT: Ben Sinclair (hamstring), Alex Fasolo (omitted).

St Kilda
B: Dylan Roberton, Luke Delaney, Sean Dempster
HB: Jarryn Geary, Sam Fisher, Shane Savage
C: Jack Newnes, Luke Dunstan, Cameron Shenton
HF: David Armitage, Nick Riewoldt, Adam Schneider
F: Jack Lonie, Josh Bruce, Tim Membrey
Foll: Billy Longer, Maverick Weller, Jack Steven
Int: Jack Billings, Nathan Wright, Ahmed Saad, Jack Sinclair
Emg: Eli Templeton, Tom Curren, Paddy McCartin

IN: Adam Schenider
OUT: Tom Curren

Milestone: Jack Newnes (50 games)

TIP

Collingwood will start short favourites for this game with the bookies yet it’s difficult to see why. The Saints are coming off a morale boosting win while the Pies have been decimated by injuries yet again. If the Magpies had their full list to choose from those odds would make perfect sense but under the circumstances it’s hard to see anything other then a competitive game here.

Collingwood’s chances may well come down to final selection. If Pendlebury, Adams and Varcoe take their place in the side that would make them very hard to beat, but if 2 or even all 3 of don’t pass fitness tests the Saints can win this game. I’m going on faith that at least two of those players take their place in the side  the Pies should just get over the line.

MAGPIES BY 14 POINTS.

AFL Round 3 – Collingwood vs Hawthorn Match Preview.

It may only be two rounds old, but already the 2013 AFL Premiership season has thrown up plenty of surprises and shocks, with some sides win less who were tipped to be major contenders, and a few yet to lose who many thought would be struggler’s once again. Yet the more things change, the more things stay the same for this week’s combatants, Collingwood and Hawthorn, who still seem to be two of the handful of genuine premiership contenders for 2013. The two massive clubs have been a regular part of the finals action for the last 6-7 seasons and with the quality that they possess on the field, in the coaches box and around the club it’s probably not a shock that this game could well be a Grand Final preview, or at least a preview of a probable September matchup at some time.

That’s not to say everything has gone perfectly for either club to start the season, with the Pies having to overcome one of the longest injury lists in the AFL to achieve back to back wins, while the Hawks lost their first game to their bitter rivals Geelong, as the so called “Kennett Curse” raised it’s ugly head once again. But despite those setbacks, both clubs still seem to have improved on their 2012 lists and talents and will surely now see anything other than a Grand Final appearance, and thus a premiership as a failure this season.

There has been some recent clashes between these two sides in the finals, with the 2011 Preliminary Final falling the way of the Magpies and last year’s Qualifying final easily going the way of the Hawks, and there’s a decent chance these two might meet again in the finals later this year.

PREVIOUS ROUND FORM.

After a first round loss to Geelong, once again by under 10 points, the Hawks travelled to Western Australia to face the West Coast Eagles, another side that had failed to notch a win in round 1. That made the game a vital one for both teams, as both were tipped to finish in the top four by most experts pre season, but almost from the opening bounce it became clear that the Eagles would be unable to match the Hawks, as Hawthorn piled on 6 goals to 1 in the first quarter to build a lead that would never really be challenged by the Eagles. It was expected that the Eagles would finish the game stronger, having had a 2 week break leading into the game, but the Hawks shocked everyone by finishing better as they ran away with the game, to eventually put their first win on the board with a 50 point victory. The usual suspects ran riot for the Hawks, with Franklin, Breust and Rioil sharing 13 goals between them, and Mitchell and Hodge controlling the use of the ball further up the ground. There was one sour note on the day as key midfielder Brad Sewell suffered a hamstring injury and is certain to miss this weekend’s matchup against the Pies.

Jamie Elliott kicked 5 goals last week in the Pies victory.

Almost at the same time, in fact with a start time just a few hours earlier, Collingwood was involved in an epic battle with it’s fiercest rival Carlton, in front of over 84,000 people at the home of football, the MCG. Carlton led for most of the day, and took a 10 point lead into the final break as the Pies seemed to struggle to cope with the absence of some of their star players through injury. But come the last quarter, the Magpie army was at their loudest as the Pies, led gamely in the ruck by Quinten Lynch after Darren Jolly suffered rib damage early in the game, booted 7 goals to 3 in the final quarter to run away with a hard fought 17 point win. The star of the day was second year small forward Jamie “Billy” Elliott who kicked a career high 5 goals to be the leading scorer on the ground. It was yet another backs against the wall win for the Magpies after a gutsy round one win against the odds, and it really does set up one heck of a match up against the Hawks on Sunday.

COLLINGWOOD PREVIEW

Scott Pendlebury celebrates after his match sealing goal last week.

Against the odds, Collingwood find themselves 2-0 after two gut busting full team efforts that resulted in wins against the very competitive duo of North Melbourne and Carlton. I say “against the odds” because it both games the Magpies have had to overcome adversity that usually results in a loss rather than a win. In round 1 the Pies lost to injury/illness Dayne Beams and Heath Shaw in the 24 hours leading up to the game, and then lost both Ben Johnson and Ben Reid during the game, yet somehow managed to come away with the win. And it was a case of deja vu on Sunday afternoon as only minutes into the clash with Carlton the Pies only specialist ruckman, Darren Jolly, suffered severe rib damage after being tackled to the ground, and would take no further part in the game (apart from a very short period at the start of the 2^nd quarter before being subbed off).

What this shows is that unlike last year when adversary was used as an excuse as to why the Magpies didn’t prevail on some occasions, this season when something has gone wrong early in a game, if anything the Collingwood side has revelled in the challenge and have been able to come out on top in an extraordinary manner. Having said that, as a Magpies fan I’d love for us to be able to use the sub just once when we actually want to, rather than having it forced on us, and against the Hawks this week we may not be able to overcome such problems if they persist.

At the selection table this week Collingwood had two changes forced upon it with number one ruckman Darren Jolly out with what has been described as bruised ribs while club captain Nick Maxwell fractured his wrist in the win last week and will be out for at least 6 weeks. There are ready made replacements waiting though, with upgraded rookies Ben Hudson (to make his debut for his fourth AFL club) and young defender Jack Frost coming in to replace the two injured players. Dale Thomas and Alex Fasolo impressed in the VFL last week and will return also, with Brent Macaffer and Paul Seedsman the unlucky ones to be demoted for this clash. This shows the depth of the Collingwood list now with several probable best 22 players till unable to be selected, the final 22 on Sunday will still represent one of the strongest line ups put out on the field in the AFL this weekend.

Collingwood couldn’t defeat the Hawks in three attempts last season, and will be trying to overcome one of the teams they seem to matchup with the worst on Sunday, but their start to the season surely gives them a new found confidence and belief that maybe they didn’t have last year.

Opposition Analysis.

Hawthorn started the season as one of the most popular picks to win the premiership, and their form in the first two games has done nothing to suggest they won’t be a major contender come September, despite only winning one of their first two games. Their round one loss to Geelong showed up some of their weaknesses, but at the same time showed that they have the resilience to stay in games for long periods of time, even when they aren’t entirely playing their best football, and that is an important trait to have in a long season. Their win over the Eagles on the weekend was typical of the Hawks of the last few seasons though, if you show them even a little bit of weakness they will punish you, and usually punish you quite severely in a short period of time. Many say they are “flat track bullies” and that they struggle when the real heat is on, but their record over the past few seasons includes some absolutely massive wins under extreme pressure, so I don’t buy that moniker for a second.

The Hawks forward line has to be seen as their strength, as it is probably the most dangerous offensive set up in AFL at the moment. They have two absolute star key position forwards in Lance Franklin and Jarryd Roughead, some very good mid sized options in Gunston and Breust and a group of small forwards who are as dangerous as they come, led by Cyril Rioli and Paul Puopolo. The Hawks have also gone with two ruckman to start the season, with David Hale spending more time up forward than his counterpart Max Bailey, who has been trusted with most of the ruck responsibilities. The Hawks can tear a side apart very quickly and their ability to score heavily in a short period of time is a major reason for that, and it’s not only through their forwards that they achieve this, with their midfield and running options up the field also being more than capable of impacting the scoreboard. Against the Magpies last season the Hawks scoring ability was basically unstoppable, and it was a major reason that they notched three wins over the Pies, including an easy Qualifying Final victory in week one of the finals.

Luke Hodge made an impressive comeback from injury last week.

The Hawthorn midfield set up can’t be under estimated either and it’s also a region that has dominated against the Pies in recent times. Sam Mitchell, Jordan Lewis and Brad Sewell have been the main culprits, and although Sewell will be missing this week you’d assume Luke Hodge, in his second game back after injury, would easily improve that midfield if asked to be part of it. As part of this set up the Hawks also have some classy outside midfielders, with Rioil, Birchall, Smith and Shiels all assisting the tough, contested ball winners that have been so effective for the Hawks over recent years. As mentioned above, the Hawks have chosen to go with two genuine ruckman this season, with Max Bailey finally injury free, and David Hale still competing as well as he has in recent season, it is another area they will seek to exploit Collingwood in. With the Magpies missing Luke Ball and reigning club best and fairest Dayne Beams, and most likely Darren Jolly, winning the contested situations may well be a very difficult task for the midfielders in black and white to achieve.

If the Hawks have a weakness, it has to be seen as their defense, yet even here they have a lot of talent and natural ability that allows them to attack off half back. It’s clear though that the Hawthorn coaching group knew that their key position stocks down back were an area they had to improve upon, and in the off season they acquired ex Bulldog Brian Lake to assist Schoenmakers and Gibson in containing some of the best key forwards in the AFL. Gibson led the AFL for spoils last season in a performance that was clearly the best of his career, while the sometimes maligned Schoenmakers continued to make progress towards coming a consistent AFL class defender. But even last week, in a game they won easily, the Eagles key forwards, especially Josh Kennedy were able to kick goals, which shows that the Hawks recruiting of Brian Lake was intended to fill one of the very few holes in this side. Lake is likely to make his Hawthorn debut this week, and may well be given the task on Travis Cloke straight up, which would be a massive test.

The Hawks seem to match up so well against Collingwood and that showed last year as they racked up three relatively easy wins against a Magpie team that was struggling to find it’s best football last year. Once again they meet Collingwood below their best, with several players still missing and the Hawks coaching staff will look to exploit the weaknesses that may be there because of those missing stars. Luke Hodge looked great last week, and despite the loss of Brad Sewell Hawthorn look to have improved on last year with the inclusion of some pace from Bradley Hill and Jed Anderson. Yes their backline still has a way to go to be considered up there with the best in the AFL, but when you have a midfield and forward line that is as talented and stacked as what they possess, the majority of games are decided in an attacking manner which suits their game style and playing talent. There’s little doubt that the Hawthorn players, coaching staff and fans will believe this is a game they should win, but the round one loss proved that this team isn’t running on all cylinders just yet, and the win over the Eagles didn’t really tell us anything we didn’t already know.

Teams;

Collingwood
B: Nathan Brown, Alan Toovey, Ben Reid
HB: Marty Clarke, Heath Shaw, Harry O’Brien
C: Steele Sidebottom, Dane Swan, Dale Thomas
HF: Jamie Elliott, Travis Cloke, Quinten Lynch
F: Ben Sinclair, Tyson Goldsack, Sam Dwyer
Foll: Ben Hudson, Scott Pendlebury, Jarryd Blair
Int: Alex Fasolo, Jordan Russell, Ben Johnson, Jack Frost
Emg: Brent Macaffer, Josh Thomas, Paul Seedsman

IN: Dale Thomas, Ben Hudson, Jack Frost, Alex Fasolo
OUT: Darren Jolly (ribs), Nick Maxwell (wrist), Brent Macaffer (omitted), Paul Seedsman (omitted)

NEW: Ben Hudson (34, Brisbane Lions)

Hawthorn
B: Josh Gibson, Ryan Schoenmakers, Brent Guerra
HB: Luke Hodge, Ben Stratton, Grant Birchall
C: Liam Shiels, Sam Mitchell, Bradley Hill
HF: Cyril Rioli, Lance Franklin, Luke Breust
F: David Hale, Jarryd Roughead, Paul Puopolo
Foll: Max Bailey, Shaun Burgoyne, Jordan Lewis
Int: Taylor Duryea, Jed Anderson, Isaac Smith, Jack Gunston
Emg: Shane Savage, Sam Grimley, Kyle Cheney

IN: Jack Gunston, Taylor Duryea
OUT: Brad Sewell (hamstring), Shane Savage (omitted)

NEW: Taylor Duryea (21, Murray Bushrangers)

Tip.

Dale Thomas is likely to return against the Hawks.

Hawthorn will enter this game as favourites, and based on last seasons three encounters between the two clubs that is more than fair, but both sides would admit they have a lot of room for improvement, both from within their current playing stocks and those soon to return from injury, so this game then becomes a little less predictable. Hawthorn will look to take advantage of the absence of Maxwell, Ball, Beams and Jolly but the return of Dale Thomas, and the inclusion of veteran Ben Hudson do off set some of those outs. Hawthorn themselves are still missing a few players, with Ellis, Sewell, Suckling and Whitecross all considered best 22 players, meaning that even they won’t be near full strength this week.

There’s little doubt the 2013 version of this Magpie team is a different beast altogether than the one that struggled late last season, and the changes to the game style in Nathan Buckley’s second season as coach show a willingness to attack and use the corridor more than they ever did under their previous coaching staff. How this change effects the gap that existed between the two clubs last year is really still to be determined but we are sure to get an insight into just how well both teams are performing early in the season this Sunday. Most will tip the Hawks to win this game but if the Magpies can get just a little bit of luck and actually go through the game injury free, I can see this being a tight contest where the Magpies have every chance of once again winning a game against the odds.

PIES BY 4 POINTS.

AFL Round 3 – Collingwood vs Carlton match preview

The crowd are packed in tight for the 1910 VFL Grand Final

ONE HUNDRED AND TWO YEARS AGO, on October the 1^st, 1910, Collingwood and Carlton faced off for the first time in a VFL/AFL Grand Final, and to put it lightly, all hell broke loose. Early in the last quarter of the 1910 VFL Grand Final a fight broke out, with over 30 of the competing players involved. It was brutal, it was ugly, but the aftermath was where the rivalry really began to get heated. After the Grand Final (which Collingwood won by 14 points) the four players reported for starting the fight were given suspensions ranging from 12 to 18 months. But it was after this that the real ignition point of the rivalry occurred, Tom Baxter had been a star in Collingwood’s premiership season, yet he had been accused of being one of the four instigators and was suspended for 12 months, but fellow Magpies player Richard Daykin stepped forward, signing a declaration that he was the fourth instigator, and not Baxter, and the VFL accepted this version of events. Baxters suspension was quashed, and Daykin received the 12 months penalty instead. Days later, Daykin announced his retirement from the VFL, while Baxter continued on to represent Collingwood in it’s premiership defense. This infuriated Cartlon mainly due to the report from the officiating umpire that stated the fourth instigator had dark hair, when Daykin actually had red hair.

It was the beginning of a rivalry that to this day is considered by most to be the most ardent, passionate and fierce between two sporting clubs in Australia, and one of the most competitive in the world of sport for that matter.

The two clubs have faced off in 243 games in the VFA/VFL/AFL since 1892 (the year Collingwood began it’s life) of which Carlton have won 123 and Collingwood have won 116, with only the 4 draws. Included in those matchups have been 22 finals (Carlton lead 14-8) and most importantly 6 Grand Finals, with the only Collingwood victory in a Grand Final versus Carlton coming in that 1910 VFL Grand Final. There have been many fabled matches since, we all know the stories of the 1970 VFL Grand Final comeback in front of a record crowd, and the Wayne Harmes tap in, supposedly from out of bounds in the 1979 VFL Grand Final, and all of them have added extra spice and meaning to this intense rivalry that has endured the test of time.

This Friday Night, in front of an expected crowd of over 80,000 people, Round Three of the 2012 AFL Premiership Season begins with a clash between these two great rivals, and for the first time in many a year, both teams are genuine premiership contenders. Carlton has started the season on fire, easily winning it’s games against the lowly Tigers and Lions, while Collingwood has had to settle for one win and one loss, after a tough first up match against premiership favourites Hawthorn ended in a loss, followed by a gutsy, hard fought win over the Tigers in tough conditions.

Carlton last played on Thursday Night, while Collingwood had to wait until Saturday Night to get it’s round two game completed, and straight away this grants a favourable advantage to Carlton going into Friday Night’s clash. It was easy to see that the Collingwood coaching staff took the shorter break into consideration both in selection and in the way the team played on Saturday Night.

In the last quarter against the Tigers, with the Pies lead approaching the 50 point mark, the likes of Pendlebury, Thomas, Ball and Sidebottom were noticeably absent from the midfield, especially at the centre bounces. It was obvious new coach Nathan Buckley and his coaching staff were already planning for next week.

Chris Dawes takes a strong mark last week

But the coaching staff didn’t plan on one thing, that being star full back Chris Tarrant going down with a calf injury that will keep him out for the best part of a month, and with fellow tall defender Nathan Brown still a few weeks away from returning to the seniors, the Magpies will be weakened down back once again.

There are positives for Collingwood though, with the likely return of the suspended Sharrod Wellingham, inspirational captain Nick Maxwell and also the season debut of club stalwart Ben Johnson, the latter two from injuries and a lack of match practice respectively.

Nick Maxwell and Sharrod Wellingham return for the Magpies this week

One of the biggest selection questions for Nathan Buckley and the Collingwood match committee was what to do with the secondary ruck position. For most of the pre season and the first two regular season games Chris Dawes has been given the role, as a straight forward replacement for the retired Leigh Brown, but even Buckley himself has admitted that Dawes’ output has been less then what has been expected. With the selected teams now released, we can see that Collingwood has decided to go with genuine ruckman Cameron Wood, at the expense of young forward Jackson Paine. Also out for Collingwood is Paul Seedsman, who showed a bit inn his first two games, and the injured Chris Tarrant. The three inclusions are as expected, Wood, captain Nick Maxwell and small midfielder Sharrod Wellingham have returned.

Opposition Analysis.

Carlton got a dream start to the season thanks to the AFL fixture, with games against likely bottom six teams Richmond and Brisbane, and the Blues took full advantage of this with victories by 44 and 91 points, giving them their best start to a season in years. Carlton fans are rightly excited by the mix of players they now have, and for the first time in over a decade Carlton may actually be a genuine premiership contender.

Carlton’s much vaunted midfield is as strong as it has ever been, in fact it may even be stronger, led by 2 superstars in Judd and Murphy, and ably supported by the very under rated Caraazzo, the consistent Kade Simpson, the experienced Heath Scotland and their own personal tough nut, Mitch Robinson, it is indeed as deep as any other midfield in the leagus. Carlton will also look to rotate several more players through that midfield, with the likes of Gibbs, Armfield, Lucas, Tuohy and Curnow at times playing roles through that midfield.

Since the disastrous departure of Brendan Fevola the Carlton forward line has been disjointed and unproductive against the very best sides, yet it now seems that the Blues may finally be getting the mix right inside their offensive zone. In the first two rounds the Blues have used 3 main talls, Jarrad Waite, Shaun Hampson and the very fit Matthew Kreuzer, and they have been ably supported by experienced small forward Eddie Betts, the enigmatic Jeffrey Gartlett and more then able assistance from the above mentioned midfielders, with Judd leading the way with 3 goals last week. Carlton’s forward line does look more potent than ever, and with Collingwood’s problems down back due to injury, Carlton will see this area as one they can exploit.

If there has been a major problem for Carlton against the premiership contending teams over the past few seasons it has been their backline. For many a year, Michael Jamison has been the only top class tall defender at the club, and due to injury has missed plenty of games, and exposed the rest of the Carlton defenders as not up to elite standard. This season though, Carlton have tried Lachlan Henderson down back, and he has performed admirably against Jack Riewoldt and Daniel Merrett. Carlton’s backline does have an area of strength though, with Bryce Gibbs spending the majority of his time back there in recent times, and Chris Yarran one of the clear best running defenders in the game now, the offensive attack off Carlton’s backline is what they may use to hide their most obvious weakness. Carlton are likely to bring in both Jamison and also Nick Duigan for their first games this season, which will bolster that defense to no end.

While Collingwood may be having trouble figuring out it’s ruck setup, Carlton have a settled on theirs for the time being, with Matthew Kruezer and Shaun Hampson already forming a tough tandem that has destroyed it’s opposition in the first two rounds, more so around the ground then anywhere else.

Carlton look to be finally finding the correct mix to fight to finish in the vital top four, and this game is a massive occasion for the developing Carlton team to show the AFL world if they can match it with the best teams.

But for all the improvement and hype from the media, simply put, if Carlton can not beat their arch rival this week, they may well never reach the heights that the clubs history expects it to.

 

Teams;

 COLLINGWOOD

B: Harry O’Brien, Lachlan Keeffe, Heath Shaw
HB: Nick Maxwell, Ben Reid, Tyson Goldsack
C: Dane Swan, Luke Ball, Sharrod Wellingham
HF: Dale Thomas, Chris Dawes, Ben Sinclair
F: Dayne Beams, Travis Cloke, Alex Fasolo
Foll: Darren Jolly, Scott Pendlebury, Steele Sidebottom
Int: Martin Clarke, Jarryd Blair, Alan Toovey, Cameron Wood
Emg: Tom Young, Jackson Paine, Paul Seedsman

In: Nick Maxwell, Sharrod Wellingham, Cameron Wood
Out: Chris Tarrant (calf), Jackson Paine (omitted), Paul Seedsman (omitted)

CARLTON

B: J.Laidler L.Henderson C.Yarran
HB: N.Duigan P.Bower Z.Tuohy
C: H.Scotland C.Judd K.Simpson
HF: J.Garlett J.Waite M.Murphy
F: M.Jamison M.Kreuzer E.Betts
Foll: S.Hampson A.Carrazzo B.Gibbs
Int: D.Armfield, E.Curnow, K.Lucas, M.Robinson

Emg: B.McLean J.Russell B.Thornton

IN: N.Duigan, M.Jamison
OUT: B.Thornton, J.Russell

 

Tip.

The returning Sharrod Wellingham in action

While all of the hype around this game seems to be favouring Carlton, they are still yet to prove they can match it with the big two, Collingwood and Geelong, and until they do, I find it had to take tip them. The truth is this is Carlton’s first real test of the season, and while Collingwood may well be a few players short of their best team, it will be the best side the Magpies have put on the field in 2012, and that can not be under estimated. Many factors do favour Carlton though, the six day versus eight day break, the relative health of the lists, and the current form of both teams does lead you towards thinking Carlton are a real chance this week.

But the Pies are filled with stars, in their midfield it will be hard for Carlton to contain all of Pendlebury, Swan, Thomas, Ball, Wellingham, Beams, Sidebottom and Blair, while the Magpies will still have the highest quality ruckman on the ground, Darren Jolly, who is back in top form. The Pies forward line is also dangerous to any side, let alone against one with tall defender problems like Carlton. Travis Cloke is the best power forward in the game at the moment, and he looks as if he’s about to have his break out performance for 2012, which doesn’t bode well for the Blues.

Ultimately though, this will be a close game till the end, with both teams desperate to grab those four points to give them a better then expected start to the season. I favour Collingwood based on midfield depth, and a willingness to do the right things for longer then the lesser experienced Carlton side. Collingwood will outlast, outfight and basically outplay Carlton in a thriller.

PIES by 11 points.

VFL

This weekend the Collingwood VFL side ventures out to Preston to play Carlton’s VFL side, the Northern Blues. The game is on Saturday, and starts at 2pm, with Alan Didak and Nathan Brown likely to be the two most important players for Pie fans to keep an eye on.

WEEKLY COLLINGWOOD QUOTE

Each week from now on, I will add a famous quote from the greats who helped form this club, through to the modern day fans and players. This weeks quote (actually it’s a poem) comes from a fan after our first premiership win, in 1896.

“Hurrah for the lads of lusty legs….

Football they play the orthodox way

And kick t’others teeth out.

Hurray for the lads with biceps so strong,

With arms so brawny and bare.

May they trample and pound all their foes on the ground,

And make merry at their despair.”

(Source – “Kill for Collingwood” – R.Stremski –  1986)