INCONSISTENT, that’s the simplest way to sum up what has transpired so far in the 2013 season for the Collingwood Football Club. Since round 2 when the Magpies defeated their arch rivals Carlton to start the season with a perfect 2-0 record, they have not won, or lost two games in a row. There are of course excuses and reasons floating around but the simple fact is that at the moment Collingwood is struggling to perform anywhere near it’s highest level for two consecutive weeks. This Friday night the club will travel interstate for the second time this season when it takes on the Brisbane Lions at the GABBA. The Lions themselves are a bit of an enigma having beaten the top four contending Essendon in Melbourne two weeks ago, only to fall at home to an inaccurate Carlton last weekend. Brisbane has showed that on their day, when things click for them they can be a highly dangerous team and the Magpies will have to return to form to win this Friday night.
PREVIOUS FORM
Rohan Bewick was impressive in the Lions loss last week.
Last Saturday night in Brisbane the Lions hosted Carlton in what was a crucial game for both sides and despite a strong second term from the home team the Blues ran away with a 13 point win, with the final margin flattering the Lions just a little bit. After a 6 goal to 2 second term that saw the Lions take a lead into half time it was the Blues who were clearly the better team as they put up 5 goals and 13 behinds in the second half compared to the Lions 3 goals and 9 behinds. Put simply, if Carlton had of kicked straight it wouldn’t have been close, so the Lions will have to improve plenty of they are to avoid back to back home losses on Friday night. Further bad news came out of the match for Brisbane too with no.1 ruckman Matthew Leuenberger badly dislocating a thumb which will mean he will miss as many as the next four matches and tough midfielder Tom Rockliff likely to miss at least 2 weeks with a quad strain. Club champion Jonathon Brown will also miss this clash as he was cited, then suspended for a high hit on Jamison from the Blues. There were a few positives for the Lions though with Rohan Bewick performing well up forward with three goals and Pearce Hanley and Brent Moloney playing their bit in driving the Lions forward at times, ultimately though it wasn’t enough and Brisbane will have to find four replacements for the missing Leuenberger, Rockliff, Brown and Merrett adding to their already patchy form.
Collingwood at the moment aren’t going much better in fact you could say the last few weeks has almost mirrored the Lions form with a stunning upset two weeks ago over Geelong followed by a poor output in a heavy loss to the reigning premiers, the Sydney Swans. That loss to the Swans was brutal, the Pies were never really in the game and the final margin of 47 points probably could have been even more if not for a spirited effort by the Magpies in the final term, not that it counted for much really. It was a massive turnaround in output from the week before when the Pies had been so good, yet against the Swans they went almost two entire quarters without a goal at one stage and had very little excuse as to why that was so. Sydney were great, but it has to be said that Collingwood hasn’t put up a more insipid effort so far this season. If there was one clear positive on the night it was the form of Luke Ball in just his second game back after more than a year off, who gathered 28 possessions and showed that he has returned in fine form and will be of great help to the Magpies going forward. They’ll need that help though as even though the win/loss pattern suggests they will bounce back to form it will take a much better effort and performance than they showed last week if they are to get their season back on track in Brisbane this week.
COLLINGWOOD PREVIEW
Collingwood desperately need a win, in fact they need to find a way to put a few wins together and that may start this week as the draw gets a little bit easier in the coming weeks. A win against the Lions should launch at least a three game winning streak that could get them back in top 4 or at least top 6 contention. Injuries are still hurting the Pies though with no return in sight for last years’ best and fairest Dayne Beams and top recruit Clinton Young pretty much in the same category. The Magpies will get Heath Shaw back this week and he will slot nicely into a defense that is struggling more than it has in the past 5-6 years. With the absence of Toovey, Shaw and Goldsack last week the Magpies backline really couldn’t cope with what the Swans threw at them and it’s a given that there will be some changes to that set up this week as coach Nathan Buckley has alluded to. The experienced Ben Johnson may be one option or even Ben Sinclair who has been spending time down back in the VFL since being omitted from the senior team. In the middle Kyle Martin is almost certain to make his AFL debut at the age of 22 although he is yet to be promoted off the rookie list, it seems a mere formality after yet another best on ground performance in the VFL. The Pies may also choose to bring in Jackson Paine or Alan Didak to bolster it’s struggling forward line as once again Elliott and Cloke were the only players who could be relied upon last week inside the forward half.
Since the loss to the Swans senior coach Nathan Buckley has also spoken about the weaknesses of his side and has hinted at a mini rebuild or maybe a change of strategy in terms of selection so that his side can compete with the best sides in the competition come the end of the year. The changes that are made on Thursday night will give us a hint into just how drastic a change Buckley is thinking about but there is sure to be one or two shocks it seems when it comes to the selected Pies 22 for the Lions game.
Even with the long and talented injury list and inconsistent form the Magpies should win this game and it will be drilled into them that their intensity must not let up for the entire game if they are to get back into form leading into the second half of the season.
OPPOSITION ANALYSIS
The Brisbane Lions came into this season with a renewed hope and optimism after an impressive NAB Cup campaign that saw them make the final of the pre season competition. But after nine rounds of the season they would have to be disappointed with where they sit, with a record of 3 wins and 6 losses that sees them sitting in 14th position on the ladder, a full two games and and percentage out of 8th spot. Yes, they have had their fair share of injuries but as Collingwood themselves have found out injuries to key players is a current occurrence in the AFL and it’s something you need to plan for, and deal with as they come. The Lions do have some talent though, as shown by their remarkable upset win over Essendon just two weeks ago, although the result last week bought them back to earth in a hurry.
The Lions backline may well be missing it’s most important player this week, Daniel Merrett but it still has the ability to restrict teams to a reasonable score, even if they were assisted by Carlton’s poor kicking last week. Joel Patfull and youngster Justin Clarke are likely to be given the responsibility of stopping Travis Cloke this week and it will be interesting to see if Collingwood persists with Jarrod Witts as a second ruckman/forward because if he does play the Lions defense may not have enough talls to match up on Lynch, Cloke and the secondary ruckman. The Lions do have some run and carry ability off half back though with Mcgrath, Hanley, Yeo, Docherty and Hanley all capable of exploiting one of Collingwood’s weaknesses which is the counter attack out of their forward line. The Swans and Dockers have exploited that weakness to no end in the last three weeks and it may be the one area that the Lions can really hurt the Magpies in on Friday night.
Lions champion Simon Black is still a big part of the Lions midfield.
Brisbane still has some talent in the midfield despite the absence of Rockliff, Rich and Polec and their new recruit, ex demon Brent Moloney is probably the most consistent of this talented group. Joining Moloney in the midfield rotation are names such as Black, Redden, Polkinghorne, Hanley, Zorko, Karnezis and Raines which shows the Lions do have a deep midfield even if it doesn’t have the absolute stars that some teams possess in the AFL. The loss of Matthew Leuenberger hurts the Lions in the ruck as this is yet another area that the Magpies have struggled in so far in 2013, ranking last or near last in just about every ruck statistical category there is. Brisbane are likely to recall second year youngster Billy Longer and while he is no doubt a promising youngster against a strong bodied ruck opponent like Darren Jolly (or Ben Hudson if Jolly is rested) it will be interesting to see how the young man goes. With the Magpies missing Beams, Thomas and Fasolo from their midfield rotation there is a chance for the Lions to get on top in the middle although the absence of their number one ruckman will hurt them you’d suspect.
Inside the forward zone the Lions will obviously miss the absence of their inspirational skipper Jonathan Brown who didn’t beat a striking charge at the tribunal and will miss the next three weeks (the third being a bye for the Lions). 19 year old key forward Michael Close is a big chance of coming in and making an impact and once again the Lions will have to put faith in a youngster where previously they had an experienced and reliable key position player. What the Lions do possess however is a decent line up of small and medium forwards and I know it’s getting repetitive but this is just another area that the once all mighty Collingwood has struggled in, negating pacy and talented small forwards. Names like Green, Zorko, Bewick, Staker and those in the midfield rotation who spend time down forward will no doubt worry a Collingwood backline that is struggling to say the least at the moment. Ex Hawk Jordan Lisle may be the wild card here, he was very highly rated at the Hawks but injuries and an abundance of key forward talent in front of him meant the move to the Lions was a good thing for all parties, but he has to stand up in the absence of Brown right now.
The Brisbane Lions go into this game knowing nothing short of a win will keep their faint hopes of making the finals alive and it’s that desperation that can be dangerous, even when a team is under manned like the Lions are. The absence of those big name players while a negative at first can sometimes be a positive as it allows youngsters and those fringe players to push a case for regular senior selection and that’s what coach Michael Voss will be hoping for this week. Brisbane will be desperate, their intensity will be up but it may come down to just how well those newer players perform as to whether or not they can stay with and even defeat the Magpies.
TEAMS
Collingwood
B: Nathan Brown, Ben Reid, Harry O’Brien
HB: Heath Shaw, Nick Maxwell, Marley Williams
C: Steele Sidebottom, Dane Swan, Luke Ball
HF: Jamie Elliott, Quinten Lynch, Brent Macaffer
F: Ben Kennedy, Travis Cloke, Alan Didak
Foll: Darren Jolly, Scott Pendlebury, Jarryd Blair
Int: Andrew Krakouer, Josh Thomas, Kyle Martin, Paul Seedsman
Emg: Marty Clarke, Jarrod Witts, Ben Sinclair
IN: Didak, Martin, Shaw, J.Thomas
OUT: Dwyer (groin), Russell (ankle), Clarke, Witts (omitted)
NEW: Kyle Martin (22, Noble Park/Frankston)
Brisbane
B: J. Adcock, J. Patfull, A. McGrath
HB: E. Yeo, R. Lester, B. Staker
C: A. Raines. S. Black, J. Polkinghorne
HF: R. Bewick, J. Brown, P. Hanley
F: D. Zorko, J. Lisle, T. Rockliff
Foll: M. Leuenberger, B. Moloney, J. Redden
Int: J. Green, S. Mayes, M. Golby, S. Michael
Emg: S. Docherty, T. Banfield, P. Karnezis
IN: Sam Michael, Josh Green
OUT: Merrett (Suspended), Clarke (suspended)
TIP
The odds for this game have changed significantly over the past few days as it became clear that the Lions would be missing another three key players for this round. Collingwood for once had no bad news leading into selection in fact they have the luxury of bringing back a premiership star in Heath Shaw who will no doubt tip the ledger in the Pies favour, even if there have been questions about his fitness and work rate recently.
Ultimately it seems as if the Lions have reached a tipping point where they simply have run out of players to be a competitive unit and while the Magpies may be struggling to find form they are yet to drop a game to a side outside the eight and I expect that trend to continue this week, although I expect the final margin to be closer than most are tipping.
PIES BY 19.
SportsMatt 