AFL Round 8 – Collingwood vs Brisbane Match Preview.

It doesn’t get much worse than this for the Collingwood football club. If the Magpies lose to the Brisbane Lions this weekend, they will be entrenched in the bottom four of the AFL ladder with a 2-6 win/loss record. That’s simply not good enough. Not for a club with some of the best resources in the world of sport. Not for a club that has been rebuilding for three seasons Not for a club with the most ardent and passionate fans a club could wish for. But it’s reality. The Magpies were poor again when in counted, on the field against Carlton at the M.C.G. It was Carlton of all teams, the old enemy, that reduced the Magpies to the lowest point of coach Nathan Buckley’s tenure. Even club president Eddie McGuire, usually the most stable and loyal backer of the club and coach, talked about wanting to quit after the loss.

That loss left the Magpies with a 2-5 record ahead of a trip north to play the Brisbane Lions. The Lions themselves aren’t exactly flying along with only one win this season. They also have a coach under pressure, declining crowd numbers and a young list. This is an absolutely vital game for both clubs, even if neither is any chance of making finals in season 2016. The Lions after defeating cross town rivals the Suns, and almost knocking off the Swans at home, made the trip to Adelaide Oval on Sunday to face Port Adelaide. Once again inaccurate kicking at goal cost them any chance. At three quarter time the Lions were matching the Power for shots at goal, but found themselves 48 points down. It’s a concern that is all too familiar for Brisbane fans.

That leads us to this game, which will see the 14^th and 16^th placed teams face off. There’s a myth that Collingwood don’t play well at the GABBA, the scene of this Saturday night’s matchup, yet the Pies have won 5 of their last 7 games at the ground, including their last 3. That may well give the disjointed Magpies the confidence they need to get a much needed win.

 

COLLINGWOOD PREVIEW

Collingwood is struggling, in every way a club can be. Their injury list is long and talented, the players who are fit are under performing and there seems to be little cohesion on game day. Talking about injuries, the Pies just can’t take a trick at the moment. It seems as if they will lose another three players this week with Tim Broomhead (ankle), Ben Reid (shoulder) and Nathan Brown (hamstring) unlikely to be available for this game. That extends the injury list out to a possible season high of 15, which is staggering really. There may be some good news on the injury front though with Travis Varcoe, Ben Sinclair, Marley Williams and Taylor Adams close to returning from various ailments. While the criticism of the Magpies performance has been just, the long and talented injury list has to be taken into account.

Even in the doom and gloom there are positives. Captain and vice captain, Scott Pendlebury and Steele Sidebottom, led from the front against Carlton along with star recruit Adam Treloar. Up forward Darcy Moore and Alex Fasolo continue to add to their goal tally every week, although they do lack assistance inside forward 50. The Pies are also getting plenty of games into their youngsters, with Ben Crocker the latest to get a debut, moving the number of players Collingwood has used in 7 games up to 36. That number is way too high of course, but it may fast track the development of a list that is still relatively young. Then there’s the areas that the Pies are really struggling with. Holding the ball inside the forward zone was always a strength of any Collingwood side over the past decade or so, but this team seems incapable of doing so. That has led to the injury decimated backline being placed under extreme pressure, and quite simply it can’t cope. The Magpies have conceded 96 uncontested marks inside defensive 50, which is far and above the most of any team in the first 7 rounds. Transition defense is a massive worry for coach Nathan Buckley. It’s so obvious that teams are now picking his team apart as easy as they like.

Of course it can turn around quickly, this is yet another winnable game for the Magpies. To win it though they will need reinforcements, and more help from their bottom tiered players. Outside of Pendlebury, Treloar and Sidebottom no other Magpie is ranked in the top 110 players in the AFL this season. That’s a glaring statistic, and shows those 3 need help. Levi Greenwood has to lift, although playing him out of position at half forward isn’t ideal. Jesse White should keep his spot and played one of his better games last week as a versatile swingman. Ruckman Brodie Grundy is struggling too though, and up against Stefan Martin this week if he doesn’t lift his game the Pies will be in trouble again. It’s a game Collingwood can win, but you wouldn’t be putting money on them based on the past few weeks of output.

BRISBANE PREVIEW

The Brisbane Lions are an interesting team to analyze. They’ve only played in the one final series since making the 2004 Grand Final. Club champion and current coach Justin Leppitsch has been charged with the rebuild of the club yet so far he hasn’t go them any higher than 15^th. There is hope though, they do have some of the best young players in the competition and have recruited well in recent times. Of course one of those big recruits was Dayne Beams, the Collingwood premiership midfielder who asked for a trade home 18 months back. Beams, like some of the other Lions best players though, has spent significant time on the sideline due to injury. Like Collingwood it seems, there’s bigger problems a foot than just blaming the coach or recruiting. There is talent on their list, and their most recent home game showed on their day they can match it with the very best teams in the competition.

If the Lions have an area of strength it has to be their midfield, even with captain Tom Rockliff likely to be missing for 2-3 weeks. Dayne Beams returned last week from injury and straight away made an impact with 8 clearances, and with help from the likes of Robinson, Bastinac, Rich and Zorko the Lions should be able to be competitive. Where they will gain a massive advantage is in the ruck, with one of the league’s clear best ruckman, Stefan Martin in career best form. The Pies have been smashed in the ruck of late and Martin should give the Lions first use of the ball most times. Brisbane will also try and exploit the lack of pace in the Pies midfield by getting their smaller players involved more and moving the ball quickly. If they can win the midfield battle they can win the game.

The Brisbane backline was slaughtered last week after the late withdrawal of stalwart Daniel Merrett. He should return for this game and they’ll need him to take either Cox or Moore. The one player of greatest concern for the Lions defense will be Alex Fasolo though, and if they can contain the enigmatic Pies forward they will gain a massive advantage. Brisbane can rebound the ball out of their backline better than most teams, with Daniel Rich and Pearce Hanley as classy as anyone around in that area. They will look to exploit the Pies inability to hold the ball inside that forward zone and get the ball forward quickly.

Talking about the forward line, and the Lions forward line is a real work in progress. The Lions knew their forward line was an area they had to address and they had no hesitation in taking Josh Schache with the second overall pick. Schache, who has only missed one game so far, has impressed already and shown glimpses of why he is rated so highly. At the moment though it’s unfair and unrealistic to rely on a first year player to carry the forward line, so others need to step up and help him out. So far this season it’s been the smalls that have done the majority of the scoring for the Lions with Zorko, Taylor, Hanley and Christensen leading the goal kicking. No one has managed to kick 10 goals in total yet though but they do get the chance to exploit a slow and under manned Magpies backline on Saturday night. If the Lions can get the ball inside 50 quickly, they may be able to score more heavily than they have recently. Inaccuracy is also a massive problem for Brisbane as they currently rank 15^th with a woeful percentage of 44.8. Inaccuracy at goal has arguably cost them two games already and it may well decide this game as well.

The loss of Rockliff hurts the Lions no doubt, but the return of Merrett will stabilize them down back at least. There are several options to replace the injured skipper too with Mathieson, Green, Taylor and Robertson among those fighting to be included. This is a game the Lions will target to win, there’s realistically not many they can win but this is one. The Pies are ripe for the picking and with most likely their biggest home crowd of the season behind them, this is a virtual final for the Lions. They need another win too, just to galvanize the group and show that they are moving in the right direction.

TEAMS

B: Ben Sinclair, Jack Frost, Brayden Maynard
HB: Adam Oxley, Alan Toovey, Josh Smith
C: Travis Varcoe, Adam Treloar, Steele Sidebottom
HF: Jordan De Goey, Darcy Moore, Jesse White
F: Alex Fasolo, Mason Cox, Jarryd Blair
Foll: Brodie Grundy, Scott Pendlebury, Taylor Adams
Int: Levi Greenwood, Jack Crisp, Jeremy Howe, Ben Crocker
Emg: Travis Cloke, Jonathon Marsh, Tom Phillips

B	#27 Darcy Gardiner	#21 Daniel Merrett	#25 Daniel McStay
HB	#17 Claye Beams	#22 Marco Paparone	#32 Sam Mayes
C	#35 Ryan Lester	#3 Allen Christensen	#10 Daniel Rich
HF	#11 Pearce Hanley	#28 Lewis Taylor	#8 Rohan Bewick
F	#14 Josh Walker	#23 Josh Schache	#4 Ryan Bastinac
FOL	#12 Stefan Martin	#15 Dayne Zorko	#9 Dayne Beams
INT	#1 Ben Keays	#2 Ryan Harwood	#5 Mitch Robinson
	#7 Tom Bell
E	#6 Josh Green	#13 Trent West	#36 Rhys Mathieson

TIP

This should be a tight game, with both teams out of form and effected by injury. The probable return of Travis Varcoe and the loss of Rockliff may well be the difference here though. In a game like this, with so many inexperienced players on the ground, leadership can be a key, and both Varcoe and Rockliff have that.

The return of Daniel Merrett covers the loss of Rockliff a little, but for the Lions to win this game they have to dominate in the middle and I can’t see that happening without their captain. The Magpies have won their last 3 games at the GABBA and if Varcoe lines up I think they’ll make it four in a row in Brisbane.

MAGPIES BY 8 POINTS

AFL Round 1 – Collingwood vs Brisbane Match Preview.

Footy’s back, and not a moment too soon as the AFL deals with the fallout from yet another drug controversy. It’s round one finally and this Saturday night Collingwood and Brisbane will open their home and away campaigns at the Gabba. Collingwood, the club caught up in the latest performance enhancing drug investigation, travels north with hopes of a better season then they had in 2014. Injuries, form and off field problems meant that the biggest club in the land missed the finals for the first time in 8 seasons. The Lions, still rebuilding after some recruiting mistakes made under previous coach Michael Voss, had a tumultuous season which was basically over before it began as they won only one of their first nine games. The Lions did finish the season better then the Magpies though, with 3 wins in their final 6 games, including a thumping 67 point over Collingwood in round 21. That was the only clash of the season between the two in 2014, and it was a night from hell for the Pies with further injuries and the heavy loss all but ending their finals hopes.

The obvious point of promotion for this game will be Dayne Beams. The star midfielder decided to leave Collingwood during the trade period and the club obliged, trading him to Brisbane. While there will be some ill feeling from Magpie fans towards Beams, it probably won’t spill over onto the field. Beams though is a very handy addition to an already strong Lions midfield.

PREVIOUS FORM

Pre season form can be misleading, but it’s the only form we have to go on leading into this round 1 clash. Collingwood began the NAB challenge in style, disposing of an under manned Hawthorn outfit by 44 points in Launceston. They followed that up with a close loss to Carlton at Bendigo, a result that no one really criticised or applauded. The final matchup of the pre season competition though would be of concern for the coaching staff at Collingwood. They went into the game against the Bulldogs in Melbourne as favourites, yet from very early in the contest it was clear the Magpies were never going to be in the game. The Pies only won one quarter and eventually went down by 61 points in a rather embarrassing performance. The loss wasn’t the worst thing to happen on the night, with tough midfielder Levi Greenwood, joining the Pies as part of the Beams deal, going down with an ankle injury that would rule him out for the first 2 months of the season. It was a poor end to the pre season and really leaves us with no real indication as to just how good (or bad) this Collingwood outfit will be.

Brisbane on the other hand had an impressive pre season campaign. They started off with a close win over St Kilda in Brisbane where Dayne Beams starred with a best on ground performance. Next up was their most impressive performance, a 36 point win over last years’ grand finalists Sydney in Coffs Harbour, where Josh Green showed why he is becoming one of the most dangerous small forwards in the AFL. The Lions finished their pre season fixtures with a game against local rivals the Gold Coast Suns. The game never reached any great heights until the final few moments when instinct took over as both teams fought for a win. When the siren sounded the scores were level and the Lions would have been happy with their pre season endeavours. Based just on NAB Challenge form they definitely look to be ahead of Collingwood at this stage.

COLLINGWOOD PREVIEW

Collingwood enter season 2015 as an under estimated side. There’s yet to be anyone in the media that considers them a chance of playing finals, yet there is intense pressure from the same group on coach Nathan Buckley. That is kind of an oxymoron but internally that won’t have any bearing on what happens this season. What will determine how the Pies go this season is the improvement from within the group. The additions of experienced players Travis Varcoe, Levi Greenwood and Jack Crisp may well help in the short term but it’s the youngsters at Collingwood who will ultimately decide if this club moves forward on field or not. The Magpies have through trading, acquired 7 first round draft picks over the last 3 seasons, and it’s those highly rated youngsters that hold the key to the improvement of the list. The problem with this is that most of those players aren’t ready to be consistent AFL performers yet so it’s most likely the Magpies will have yet another inconsistent season.

Heading into this game the Magpies are relatively healthy with only a handful of first choice players unavailable for the trip to Brisbane. The loss of Greenwood and the unavailability of Reid, Freeman and Seedsman is a concern but there are still a fair group contesting to be selected for this game. Jarrod Witts and Tim Broomhead impressed in a VFL hitout last Thursday and both surely will be close to selection for this game. Whether the Pies choose to go with two permanent ruckman in Witts and Brodie Grundy is one question up for debate, with Brisbane having two very capable rucks of their own (Leuenberger and Martin). The major concern for the Magpies in this game may well be their ability to score, with both delivery inside the forward zone and accuracy when shooting at goal a major problem last season. The reliance on Travis Cloke is still there and the Pies need to find someone to assist him, with White, Grundy, Witts and Gault among those in contention to do so. Collingwood can win this game, it doesn’t mean they will, but by no means are they out of this and if they perform to their best, they will win.

OPPOSITION ANALYSIS

Brisbane go into season 2015 with the hope of improving on a 15^th placed finish. There weren’t too many positives for the Lions in 2014 with only one loss under 10 points and plenty of big margins, but the way they finished the season was better then their start. Coming into this season though they have undoubtedly strengthened their list. The addition of Beams, Christensen and Robinson adds much needed experience to one of the youngest lists in the AFL and makes their midfield one of the more formidable in the league. The loss of Joel Patfull to GWS and the retirement of club legends Jonathon Brown and Ashley McGrath will hurt although the latter two didn’t have much of an impact last season anyway. The Lions self titled “mosquito fleet” is their strength, and while there are questions regarding their key position stocks the Lions will be an exciting team to watch this year.

The return of Daniel Rich will help the Lions for sure.

The area of most concern for the Lions is their defense. Daniel Merrett spent a lot of time up forward last season and it hurt the Lions backline, with Brisbane conceding the third most points of the 18 AFL clubs. The good news is Merrett will return to the backline this season which will help a struggling young defense. Apart from Merrett there is improvement in this area though with high hopes for young key position players Darcy Gardiner and Justin Clarke. The loss of Pearce Hanley with a hip injury will hurt the Lions run off half back but with Adcock, Beams (of the Claye variety) and Daniel Rich slated to play off half back, there should still be sufficient drive out of defense. The Collingwood forward line has it’s own problems with a heavy reliance on Cloke and Elliott so the Lions defense should be able to be effective this weekend.

Without doubt the section of the ground where Brisbane will look to dominate Collingwood, and other teams, is the midfield. Led by two class ruckman in Matthew Leuenberger and Stefan Martin. New captain Tom Rockliff and boom recruit Dayne Beams will lead the mosquito squad with names like Zorko, Taylor, Aish, Christensen, Mayes and Redden making up a very impressive midfield grouping. The Lions midfield possesses the kryptonite of Collingwood if you will, pace. The Pies don’t possess a lot of pacy small mids with their youngsters the quickest of the probable group. The Lions ran the Pies off their feet at the MCG last season and while the predicted wet weather may slow the game down a bit, it’s the one out right area that the Lions have an advantage in. Collingwood though has it’s stars to feed of, with Swan, Sidebottom and the amazing Scott Pendlebury leading the way. Most say a game is won or lost in the midfield and this clash may be no different.

The Lions forward line is a work in progress with the loss of the immortal Jonathon Brown requiring a restructure of their attacking set up. Youngster like McStay and Close will be called upon to fill the void early on in the season but you feel the majority of the Lions scoring will come from their small forwards and midfielders. They do have one of the best small forwards in the league with Josh Green kicking 33 goals last season to lead the club in scoring. The loss of Brown will hurt but his loss was going to come at some point so it’s time to move on for the Lions. The Collingwood backline they will come up against has also lost some experience with Maxwell and Lumumba moving on. That may even the ledger a bit and once again pace will be the weapon the Lions will look to use to exploit the Pies.

Brisbane should be an improved team in 2015 with the classy additions and the natural improvement of their youngsters. Whether that translates to a dramatic move up the ladder or not is yet to be seen but a round 1 win at home would boost their chances. The Lions will start favourites, and rightfully so, but there isn’t any real exposed form so anything can happen on the night.

TEAMS

Collingwood
B: Alan Toovey, Nathan Brown, Ben Sinclair
HB: Marley Williams, Jack Frost, Adam Oxley
C: Travis Varcoe, Jack Crisp, Steele Sidebottom
HF: Dane Swan, Jesse White, Tyson Goldsack
F: Jamie Elliott, Travis Cloke, Alex Fasolo
Foll: Brodie Grundy, Taylor Adams, Scott Pendlebury
Int: Jackson Ramsay, Jarryd Blair, Tom Langdon, Jordan De Goey
Emg: Ben Kennedy, Patrick Karnezis, Corey Gault

NEW: Jack Crisp (21, Brisbane), Jordan De Goey (19, Oakleigh U18), Travis Varcoe (26, Geelong)

Brisbane Lions

B Justin Clarke, Daniel Merrett, Ryan Lester
HB Claye Beams, Marco Paparone, Daniel Rich
C Rohan Bewick, Dayne Beams, Jed Adcock
HF Josh Green, Matthew Leuenberger, Lewis Taylor
F Mitch Robinson, Daniel McStay, Jaden McGrath
FOL Stefan Martin, James Aish, Tom Rockliff
I/C Allen Christensen, Dayne Zorko, Jack Redden, Sam Mayes

EMG Luke McGuane, Harris Andrews, Mitch Golby

TIP

The early rounds of an AFL season are always the hardest to tip especially when you have two teams who struggled the season before. The home ground advantage obviously favours the Lions although they only won 3 of 11 games at the Gabba last season. The Pies generally travel well interstate and the forecast wet weather would favour the visitors more then the locals.

I see the midfield’s as fairly even with both forward lines being flawed in many ways, which leaves the defense as the area where one team might be dominant. It’s in that area, in the ability to restrict a sides score that I favour the Magpies and therefore I believe they will start their season off with a win.

MAGPIES BY 11 POINTS.

AFL Round 10 – Collingwood vs Brisbane Match Preview.

INCONSISTENT, that’s the simplest way to sum up what has transpired so far in the 2013 season for the Collingwood Football Club. Since round 2 when the Magpies defeated their arch rivals Carlton to start the season with a perfect 2-0 record, they have not won, or lost two games in a row. There are of course excuses and reasons floating around but the simple fact is that at the moment Collingwood is struggling to perform anywhere near it’s highest level for two consecutive weeks. This Friday night the club will travel interstate for the second time this season when it takes on the Brisbane Lions at the GABBA. The Lions themselves are a bit of an enigma having beaten the top four contending Essendon in Melbourne two weeks ago, only to fall at home to an inaccurate Carlton last weekend. Brisbane has showed that on their day, when things click for them they can be a highly dangerous team and the Magpies will have to return to form to win this Friday night.

PREVIOUS FORM

Rohan Bewick was impressive in the Lions loss last week.

Last Saturday night in Brisbane the Lions hosted Carlton in what was a crucial game for both sides and despite a strong second term from the home team the Blues ran away with a 13 point win, with the final margin flattering the Lions just a little bit. After a 6 goal to 2 second term that saw the Lions take a lead into half time it was the Blues who were clearly the better team as they put up 5 goals and 13 behinds in the second half compared to the Lions 3 goals and 9 behinds. Put simply, if Carlton had of kicked straight it wouldn’t have been close, so the Lions will have to improve plenty of they are to avoid back to back home losses on Friday night. Further bad news came out of the match for Brisbane too with no.1 ruckman Matthew Leuenberger badly dislocating a thumb which will mean he will miss as many as the next four matches and tough midfielder Tom Rockliff likely to miss at least 2 weeks with a quad strain. Club champion Jonathon Brown will also miss this clash as he was cited, then suspended for a high hit on Jamison from the Blues. There were a few positives for the Lions though with Rohan Bewick performing well up forward with three goals and Pearce Hanley and Brent Moloney playing their bit in driving the Lions forward at times, ultimately though it wasn’t enough and Brisbane will have to find four replacements for the missing Leuenberger, Rockliff, Brown and Merrett adding to their already patchy form.

Collingwood at the moment aren’t going much better in fact you could say the last few weeks has almost mirrored the Lions form with a stunning upset two weeks ago over Geelong followed by a poor output in a heavy loss to the reigning premiers, the Sydney Swans. That loss to the Swans was brutal, the Pies were never really in the game and the final margin of 47 points probably could have been even more if not for a spirited effort by the Magpies in the final term, not that it counted for much really. It was a massive turnaround in output from the week before when the Pies had been so good, yet against the Swans they went almost two entire quarters without a goal at one stage and had very little excuse as to why that was so. Sydney were great, but it has to be said that Collingwood hasn’t put up a more insipid effort so far this season. If there was one clear positive on the night it was the form of Luke Ball in just his second game back after more than a year off, who gathered 28 possessions and showed that he has returned in fine form and will be of great help to the Magpies going forward. They’ll need that help though as even though the win/loss pattern suggests they will bounce back to form it will take a much better effort and performance than they showed last week if they are to get their season back on track in Brisbane this week.

COLLINGWOOD PREVIEW

Collingwood desperately need a win, in fact they need to find a way to put a few wins together and that may start this week as the draw gets a little bit easier in the coming weeks. A win against the Lions should launch at least a three game winning streak that could get them back in top 4 or at least top 6 contention. Injuries are still hurting the Pies though with no return in sight for last years’ best and fairest Dayne Beams and top recruit Clinton Young pretty much in the same category. The Magpies will get Heath Shaw back this week and he will slot nicely into a defense that is struggling more than it has in the past 5-6 years. With the absence of Toovey, Shaw and Goldsack last week the Magpies backline really couldn’t cope with what the Swans threw at them and it’s a given that there will be some changes to that set up this week as coach Nathan Buckley has alluded to. The experienced Ben Johnson may be one option or even Ben Sinclair who has been spending time down back in the VFL since being omitted from the senior team. In the middle Kyle Martin is almost certain to make his AFL debut at the age of 22 although he is yet to be promoted off the rookie list, it seems a mere formality after yet another best on ground performance in the VFL. The Pies may also choose to bring in Jackson Paine or Alan Didak to bolster it’s struggling forward line as once again Elliott and Cloke were the only players who could be relied upon last week inside the forward half.

Since the loss to the Swans senior coach Nathan Buckley has also spoken about the weaknesses of his side and has hinted at a mini rebuild or maybe a change of strategy in terms of selection so that his side can compete with the best sides in the competition come the end of the year. The changes that are made on Thursday night will give us a hint into just how drastic a change Buckley is thinking about but there is sure to be one or two shocks it seems when it comes to the selected Pies 22 for the Lions game.

Even with the long and talented injury list and inconsistent form the Magpies should win this game and it will be drilled into them that their intensity must not let up for the entire game if they are to get back into form leading into the second half of the season.

OPPOSITION ANALYSIS

The Brisbane Lions came into this season with a renewed hope and optimism after an impressive NAB Cup campaign that saw them make the final of the pre season competition. But after nine rounds of the season they would have to be disappointed with where they sit, with a record of 3 wins and 6 losses that sees them sitting in 14^th position on the ladder, a full two games and and percentage out of 8^th spot. Yes, they have had their fair share of injuries but as Collingwood themselves have found out injuries to key players is a current occurrence in the AFL and it’s something you need to plan for, and deal with as they come. The Lions do have some talent though, as shown by their remarkable upset win over Essendon just two weeks ago, although the result last week bought them back to earth in a hurry.

The Lions backline may well be missing it’s most important player this week, Daniel Merrett but it still has the ability to restrict teams to a reasonable score, even if they were assisted by Carlton’s poor kicking last week. Joel Patfull and youngster Justin Clarke are likely to be given the responsibility of stopping Travis Cloke this week and it will be interesting to see if Collingwood persists with Jarrod Witts as a second ruckman/forward because if he does play the Lions defense may not have enough talls to match up on Lynch, Cloke and the secondary ruckman. The Lions do have some run and carry ability off half back though with Mcgrath, Hanley, Yeo, Docherty and Hanley all capable of exploiting one of Collingwood’s weaknesses which is the counter attack out of their forward line. The Swans and Dockers have exploited that weakness to no end in the last three weeks and it may be the one area that the Lions can really hurt the Magpies in on Friday night.

Lions champion Simon Black is still a big part of the Lions midfield.

Brisbane still has some talent in the midfield despite the absence of Rockliff, Rich and Polec and their new recruit, ex demon Brent Moloney is probably the most consistent of this talented group. Joining Moloney in the midfield rotation are names such as Black, Redden, Polkinghorne, Hanley, Zorko, Karnezis and Raines which shows the Lions do have a deep midfield even if it doesn’t have the absolute stars that some teams possess in the AFL. The loss of Matthew Leuenberger hurts the Lions in the ruck as this is yet another area that the Magpies have struggled in so far in 2013, ranking last or near last in just about every ruck statistical category there is. Brisbane are likely to recall second year youngster Billy Longer and while he is no doubt a promising youngster against a strong bodied ruck opponent like Darren Jolly (or Ben Hudson if Jolly is rested) it will be interesting to see how the young man goes. With the Magpies missing Beams, Thomas and Fasolo from their midfield rotation there is a chance for the Lions to get on top in the middle although the absence of their number one ruckman will hurt them you’d suspect.

Inside the forward zone the Lions will obviously miss the absence of their inspirational skipper Jonathan Brown who didn’t beat a striking charge at the tribunal and will miss the next three weeks (the third being a bye for the Lions). 19 year old key forward Michael Close is a big chance of coming in and making an impact and once again the Lions will have to put faith in a youngster where previously they had an experienced and reliable key position player. What the Lions do possess however is a decent line up of small and medium forwards and I know it’s getting repetitive but this is just another area that the once all mighty Collingwood has struggled in, negating pacy and talented small forwards. Names like Green, Zorko, Bewick, Staker and those in the midfield rotation who spend time down forward will no doubt worry a Collingwood backline that is struggling to say the least at the moment. Ex Hawk Jordan Lisle may be the wild card here, he was very highly rated at the Hawks but injuries and an abundance of key forward talent in front of him meant the move to the Lions was a good thing for all parties, but he has to stand up in the absence of Brown right now.

The Brisbane Lions go into this game knowing nothing short of a win will keep their faint hopes of making the finals alive and it’s that desperation that can be dangerous, even when a team is under manned like the Lions are. The absence of those big name players while a negative at first can sometimes be a positive as it allows youngsters and those fringe players to push a case for regular senior selection and that’s what coach Michael Voss will be hoping for this week. Brisbane will be desperate, their intensity will be up but it may come down to just how well those newer players perform as to whether or not they can stay with and even defeat the Magpies.

TEAMS

Collingwood
B: Nathan Brown, Ben Reid, Harry O’Brien
HB: Heath Shaw, Nick Maxwell, Marley Williams
C: Steele Sidebottom, Dane Swan, Luke Ball
HF: Jamie Elliott, Quinten Lynch, Brent Macaffer
F: Ben Kennedy, Travis Cloke, Alan Didak
Foll: Darren Jolly, Scott Pendlebury, Jarryd Blair
Int: Andrew Krakouer, Josh Thomas, Kyle Martin, Paul Seedsman
Emg: Marty Clarke, Jarrod Witts, Ben Sinclair

IN: Didak, Martin, Shaw, J.Thomas
OUT: Dwyer (groin), Russell (ankle), Clarke, Witts (omitted)

NEW: Kyle Martin (22, Noble Park/Frankston)

Brisbane
B: J. Adcock, J. Patfull, A. McGrath
HB: E. Yeo, R. Lester, B. Staker
C: A. Raines. S. Black, J. Polkinghorne
HF: R. Bewick, J. Brown, P. Hanley
F: D. Zorko, J. Lisle, T. Rockliff
Foll: M. Leuenberger, B. Moloney, J. Redden
Int: J. Green, S. Mayes, M. Golby, S. Michael
Emg: S. Docherty, T. Banfield, P. Karnezis

IN: Sam Michael, Josh Green
OUT: Merrett (Suspended), Clarke (suspended)

TIP

The odds for this game have changed significantly over the past few days as it became clear that the Lions would be missing another three key players for this round. Collingwood for once had no bad news leading into selection in fact they have the luxury of bringing back a premiership star in Heath Shaw who will no doubt tip the ledger in the Pies favour, even if there have been questions about his fitness and work rate recently.

Ultimately it seems as if the Lions have reached a tipping point where they simply have run out of players to be a competitive unit and while the Magpies may be struggling to find form they are yet to drop a game to a side outside the eight and I expect that trend to continue this week, although I expect the final margin to be closer than most are tipping.

PIES BY 19.

AFL Round 7 – Collingwood vs Brisbane Match Preview

On Saturday Night at the GABBA in Brisbane, the Collingwood Magpies and the Brisbane Lions will face off in round 7 of the AFL Premiership Season. There’s plenty of history between these two teams, with the obvious highlights coming in the 2002 and 2003 final series when the two sides met three times, including in back to back AFL Grand Finals. The 2002 Grand Final is still considered one of the best modern day Grand Finals, mainly because the Magpies made a game of it when no one expected them to. In fact, in that Grand Final on a wet September day in 2002, Collingwood hit the front in the last quarter only to finally be defeated by the rampaging Lions thanks to controversial goals from Alastair Lynch and Jason Akermanis.

The following year the two sides faced off in the first week of the 2003 finals series, with Collingwood winning the qualifying final matchup at the MCG by 15 points in a low scoring game. But three weeks later, the two sides met again in the Grand Final, and with Collingwood missing several key players, the Lions secured their third premiership in a row with a 50 point defeat of the Magpies. What occurred in that time, including some of the comments made by the victorious Lions players has no doubt lead to ill feeling between the two clubs, and has fed the rivalry to this current day. There’s also added spice to the rivalry this time around, with the two club captains from that era, Michael Voss (Brisbane) and Nathan Buckley (Collingwood) facing off for the first time this weekend as senior coaches. There is an added edge to any contest between these two proud clubs, and it will be evident both on and off the field on Saturday Night.

 The form of both sides over the first six rounds has been somewhat concerning, with Collingwood starting the season very slow, and only now getting a small three game winning streak going to get itself on the right side of the win/loss ledger at 4-2. The Lions season started brightly, with a surprise win over Melbourne at the MCG in round one, but the only win to come in the following five games for the Lions has been against lowly cross town rival the Gold Coast Suns, although in that game the Lions did look very promising once again. But the last two weeks have been embarrassing for a club looking for improvement, with a heavy loss to reigning premiers Geelong on a wet night at the GABBA, and then last weekend a deplorable effort against Essendon in Melbourne last Saturday resulting in a 67 point loss to the in form Bombers. The poor recent run has put pressure on Michael Voss, who will need to see some improvement in his teams output over the coming weeks or face the pressure that will undoubtedly come from the local and national AFL press.

Dayne Beams has been in top form for the Pies

Collingwood is finally looking like they are close to gaining back the form that saw them only lose three games last season, with a gutsy performance against the Dogs last week, although once again Collingwood’s injury curse struck, with club stalwart Ben Johnson badly injuring his shoulder and joining Luke Ball, Brent MaCaffer and Andrew Krakouer as long term injuries at the club. But out of the darkness has arisen opportunity for some younger players to step up, and no one has stepped up more then Dayne Beams, who has been given the responsibility as Ball’s replacement and has grabbed that chance with both hands, as shown by disposal counts of 27, 32 and 33 in the three games since Ball’s season ending injury occurred. But it’s not just the statistics that show how Beams has stepped it up, with his attack on the ball and ability to win the contested possession surprising many who hadn’t seen him in that role before. Beams has been ably assisted by Steele Sidebottom, and with Dane Swan and Scott Pendlebury basically unstoppable on a weekly basis, the Collingwood midfield all of a sudden looks like the teams strength, when it seemed all may be lost in the middle. Collingwood’s backline has also been doing a remarkable job, with Lachlan Keefe and the returning Nathan Brown both holding down key posts with the recent absence of Chris Tarrant and Ben Reid. And with Reid returning last week, all be it mainly up forward, the Pies backline looks like it will be back to it’s menacing best this week in Brisbane. Collingwod may also regain the services of three of it’s best 22 this week, with Jarryd Blair and Dale Thomas almost certain to return, and enigmatic forward Alan Didak also a chance to make his season debut at senior level.

 The Magpies coaching staff will be satisfied with the teams gradual performance, but they also know that with tougher games to come against Geelong and Adelaide in the next few weeks, this in the game against Brisbane the team has to improve even further if it wishes to be any chance of winning the following two games. Also under consideration is Collingwood’s poor record at the GABBA, with the Magpies having played at the ground a total of 15 times, for a poor return of just four wins, which means the GABBA in percentage terms is the most unsuccessful venue in the history of the Collingwood Football Club. A sobering though indeed for Collingwood fans.

Opposition Analysis.

 

The Lions started the season on fire in round one, yet since then there has been little to get enthused about for the Brisbane faithful. The last two losses in particular have hit the club hard, with the loss to Geelong on the night Simon Black celebrated his 300^th game particularly being seen as the poorest of poor performances from the Lions in 2012. But amongst the poor results there has been some positive signs, with plenty of young, up and coming players being tested at the big level, with a varying degree of success.

The Lions midfield is probably it’s greatest strength, with the great Simon Black still leading the way, and with able assistance from three very good young midfielders who are just coming into their own, the middle hasn’t been the weakest area for Brisbane in 2012. The three youngsters I talk of are Tom Rockliff, Jack Redden and Daniel Rich, who happen to also be 1,2 and 3 on the clubs disposal total list for the season so far. Rockliff is the star of that lot though, he is tough, can win the contested ball but also has the ability to run forward and hit the scoreboard, as he’s shown this year with a club lead equalling 6 goals in 5 games. He also leads the club in tackles, contested possessions, total possessions and marks, showing just how much of an all around player the boy from Benalla has become. The Lions also have a handy ruckman on hand, with the experienced ex Bulldog Ben Hudson making the move north this year, and with Matthew Leuenberger again struggling with injury, and first year player Billy Longer not yet up to AFL standard, Hudson has been a good recruit for the Lions, and will contest well against either Jolly or Wood this weekend.

 The Lions backline has held up pretty well considering the amount of ball that has been coming inside it’s defensive area so far in the 2012 season, and although Daniel Merrett has played forward at times, surely this week he would have to return down back to help Joel Patfull and Matt McGuire out in attempting to restrict Collingwood’s star forward Travis Cloke, and his strike partner Chris Dawes. The Lions are also trying plenty of youth down back, with Mitchell Golby and Ryan Lester, along with several others being given the chance to assist the experienced crew down back. Also it seems that premiership player Ashley McGrath will play, despite looking as if he’d had quite a serious injury to his groin last week, but all reports state that he is fit and ready to go. And with Thomas, Didak and Blair adding to Collingwood’s scoring options this weekend, the Lions backline will have to be in top form to keep their side in the game.

If the Lions have a real apparent weakness, it seems it is their forward line, with Daniel Merrett even being asked to play a considerable amount of game time up forward this year. There are good signs though, with champion forward Jonathan Brown looking as if he is close to returning to his best form after several years of terrible injuries, and his battle with Nathan Brown should almost be worth the price of admission itself. We all know how good Brown is, but the Lions lack support for him, with the likes of Banfield, Karnezis, Cornelius and Harwood being used up forward with very little success so far in 2012. And against an in form Collingwood defense, the Lions forward line will have to improve remarkably if it is to have any significant impact on the scoreboard on Saturday Night.

Jonathan Brown celebrates his 500th goal a few weeks back

Truth be told the Lions are still in a rebuilding phase, and while on their day they have the ability to perform as a competitive unit against any side, looking at their side it would take a near miracle for them to defeat last years Grand Finalists this weekend. But I expect a better effort from the Lions this week, back on their home ground, against a side the club despises, and with the added interest of champion player versus champion player in the coaches box, it isn’t unfair to expect a lift in intensity from the Lions this weekend.

 

Key Matchups;

 

Brown vs Brown

Jonathon Brown seems as if, after a few runs back from injury he is ready to explode out of the blocks, although he will run into one of the best young defenders in the AFL this week, when Nathan Brown lines up on him. Both have had significant injury setbacks over the past few seasons, but both are enormously talented and to see them go head to head should be something special.

Merrett vs Cloke

Brisbane have to get serious here, if they don’t move Merrett down back onto Cloke, the game well be over before it begins, as otherwise the best marking forward in the game will just toy with McGuire or Patfull. Merrett is a class defender, and is the only defender the Lions have who can curtail Cloke’s influence of the game. If they match up on each other as I hope, it will be as exciting a battle as the Brown vs Brown one.

Rockliff vs Beams

Two of the best young midfielders in the AFL going head to head, wouldn’t that be something to be seen under the lights at the GABBA? Both are in career best form, both are contested ball winners who can also go forward and kick goals, and both know no fear, I pray this matchup occurs, even if it’s only for a small period of time.

Pendlebury vs Black

The two best extractors in the AFL in my opinion could go head to head on Saturday Night. Black is still in top form, despite recently passing the 300 game mark, while Pendlebury continues to rack up the possessions and have an enormous influence on the game, and it would be epic to see these two go head to head for a majority of the game.

Teams;

Collingwood
B: Harry O’Brien, Ben Reid, Nathan Brown
HB: Simon Buckley, Nick Maxwell, Tyson Goldsack
C: Dane Swan, Sharrod Wellingham, Jarryd Blair
HF: Heath Shaw, Chris Dawes, Ben Sinclair
F: Dayne Beams, Travis Cloke, Alan Didak
Foll: Cameron Wood, Scott Pendlebury, Steele Sidebottom
Int: Martin Clarke, Lachlan Keeffe, Alan Toovey, Paul Seedsman
Emg: Jackson Paine, Kirk Ugle, Peter Yagmoor

In: Didak, Blair, Seedsman

Out: Johnson (shoulder), Fasolo (knee), Ugle (omitted)

Brisbane

B: Hanley (11), Maguire (36), McKeever (40)
HB: Golby (41), Patfull (24), Rich (10)
C: Hawksley (12), Rockliff (38), Drummond (39)
HF: Polkinghorne (31), Brown (16), Banfield (18)
F: McGrath (9), Merrett (21), Karnezis (28)
Foll: Longer (5), Black (20), Redden (30)
Int: Polec (4), Raines (29), Harwood (2), Zorko (15)
Emer: Retzlaff (8), Crisp (47), Green (6)

In: Niall McKeever, Josh Drummond, Andrew Raines, James Hawksley, Dayne Zorko

Out: Aaron Cornelius (omitted), Ben Hudson (general soreness), Ryan Lester (general soreness), Jack Crisp (omitted), Jed Adcock (groin)

Tip.

Dale Thomas should boost the magpies midfield with his return this week

The win/loss decision is fairly easy in this one, Collingwood should win, and win without being really troubled, but something tells me this one will be closer then what most expect. Be it the poor venue record for Collingwood, or the fact Brisbane have to make a stand at some point, I can see the Lions putting up their best performance of the year since that round one demolition of the Demons in Melbourne.

Selection may play a large part in the final result though, with Brisbane hoping McGrath and Drummond are fit to go, while Collingwood also having their own prayers about Blair, Thomas and Didak being available for the trip to Brisbane. In Thomas Collingwood has a line breaker, something that they have seemed to be missing out of the midfield over the past few weeks, and if he returns it will make the task harder for the Lions indeed.

Ultimately though Collingwood strengths seem to heavily out weight the Lions abilities, and with the return of several key players over the past few weeks, the Magpies season should continue to evolve with a fourth straight win.

PIES by 28

 

VFL

Chris Tarrant may return through the VFL this weekend

The Collingwood VFL side returns to action this Saturday versus the undefeated Port Melbourne. The game is once again out at Victoria Park, with a 2pm start time. Chris Tarrant is a possibility to return through the VFL, and if he is named he is sure to drag a few extra fans through the (open) gates.