AFL Round 8 – Collingwood vs Brisbane Match Preview.

It doesn’t get much worse than this for the Collingwood football club. If the Magpies lose to the Brisbane Lions this weekend, they will be entrenched in the bottom four of the AFL ladder with a 2-6 win/loss record. That’s simply not good enough. Not for a club with some of the best resources in the world of sport. Not for a club that has been rebuilding for three seasons Not for a club with the most ardent and passionate fans a club could wish for. But it’s reality. The Magpies were poor again when in counted, on the field against Carlton at the M.C.G. It was Carlton of all teams, the old enemy, that reduced the Magpies to the lowest point of coach Nathan Buckley’s tenure. Even club president Eddie McGuire, usually the most stable and loyal backer of the club and coach, talked about wanting to quit after the loss.

That loss left the Magpies with a 2-5 record ahead of a trip north to play the Brisbane Lions. The Lions themselves aren’t exactly flying along with only one win this season. They also have a coach under pressure, declining crowd numbers and a young list. This is an absolutely vital game for both clubs, even if neither is any chance of making finals in season 2016. The Lions after defeating cross town rivals the Suns, and almost knocking off the Swans at home, made the trip to Adelaide Oval on Sunday to face Port Adelaide. Once again inaccurate kicking at goal cost them any chance. At three quarter time the Lions were matching the Power for shots at goal, but found themselves 48 points down. It’s a concern that is all too familiar for Brisbane fans.

That leads us to this game, which will see the 14^th and 16^th placed teams face off. There’s a myth that Collingwood don’t play well at the GABBA, the scene of this Saturday night’s matchup, yet the Pies have won 5 of their last 7 games at the ground, including their last 3. That may well give the disjointed Magpies the confidence they need to get a much needed win.

 

COLLINGWOOD PREVIEW

Collingwood is struggling, in every way a club can be. Their injury list is long and talented, the players who are fit are under performing and there seems to be little cohesion on game day. Talking about injuries, the Pies just can’t take a trick at the moment. It seems as if they will lose another three players this week with Tim Broomhead (ankle), Ben Reid (shoulder) and Nathan Brown (hamstring) unlikely to be available for this game. That extends the injury list out to a possible season high of 15, which is staggering really. There may be some good news on the injury front though with Travis Varcoe, Ben Sinclair, Marley Williams and Taylor Adams close to returning from various ailments. While the criticism of the Magpies performance has been just, the long and talented injury list has to be taken into account.

Even in the doom and gloom there are positives. Captain and vice captain, Scott Pendlebury and Steele Sidebottom, led from the front against Carlton along with star recruit Adam Treloar. Up forward Darcy Moore and Alex Fasolo continue to add to their goal tally every week, although they do lack assistance inside forward 50. The Pies are also getting plenty of games into their youngsters, with Ben Crocker the latest to get a debut, moving the number of players Collingwood has used in 7 games up to 36. That number is way too high of course, but it may fast track the development of a list that is still relatively young. Then there’s the areas that the Pies are really struggling with. Holding the ball inside the forward zone was always a strength of any Collingwood side over the past decade or so, but this team seems incapable of doing so. That has led to the injury decimated backline being placed under extreme pressure, and quite simply it can’t cope. The Magpies have conceded 96 uncontested marks inside defensive 50, which is far and above the most of any team in the first 7 rounds. Transition defense is a massive worry for coach Nathan Buckley. It’s so obvious that teams are now picking his team apart as easy as they like.

Of course it can turn around quickly, this is yet another winnable game for the Magpies. To win it though they will need reinforcements, and more help from their bottom tiered players. Outside of Pendlebury, Treloar and Sidebottom no other Magpie is ranked in the top 110 players in the AFL this season. That’s a glaring statistic, and shows those 3 need help. Levi Greenwood has to lift, although playing him out of position at half forward isn’t ideal. Jesse White should keep his spot and played one of his better games last week as a versatile swingman. Ruckman Brodie Grundy is struggling too though, and up against Stefan Martin this week if he doesn’t lift his game the Pies will be in trouble again. It’s a game Collingwood can win, but you wouldn’t be putting money on them based on the past few weeks of output.

BRISBANE PREVIEW

The Brisbane Lions are an interesting team to analyze. They’ve only played in the one final series since making the 2004 Grand Final. Club champion and current coach Justin Leppitsch has been charged with the rebuild of the club yet so far he hasn’t go them any higher than 15^th. There is hope though, they do have some of the best young players in the competition and have recruited well in recent times. Of course one of those big recruits was Dayne Beams, the Collingwood premiership midfielder who asked for a trade home 18 months back. Beams, like some of the other Lions best players though, has spent significant time on the sideline due to injury. Like Collingwood it seems, there’s bigger problems a foot than just blaming the coach or recruiting. There is talent on their list, and their most recent home game showed on their day they can match it with the very best teams in the competition.

If the Lions have an area of strength it has to be their midfield, even with captain Tom Rockliff likely to be missing for 2-3 weeks. Dayne Beams returned last week from injury and straight away made an impact with 8 clearances, and with help from the likes of Robinson, Bastinac, Rich and Zorko the Lions should be able to be competitive. Where they will gain a massive advantage is in the ruck, with one of the league’s clear best ruckman, Stefan Martin in career best form. The Pies have been smashed in the ruck of late and Martin should give the Lions first use of the ball most times. Brisbane will also try and exploit the lack of pace in the Pies midfield by getting their smaller players involved more and moving the ball quickly. If they can win the midfield battle they can win the game.

The Brisbane backline was slaughtered last week after the late withdrawal of stalwart Daniel Merrett. He should return for this game and they’ll need him to take either Cox or Moore. The one player of greatest concern for the Lions defense will be Alex Fasolo though, and if they can contain the enigmatic Pies forward they will gain a massive advantage. Brisbane can rebound the ball out of their backline better than most teams, with Daniel Rich and Pearce Hanley as classy as anyone around in that area. They will look to exploit the Pies inability to hold the ball inside that forward zone and get the ball forward quickly.

Talking about the forward line, and the Lions forward line is a real work in progress. The Lions knew their forward line was an area they had to address and they had no hesitation in taking Josh Schache with the second overall pick. Schache, who has only missed one game so far, has impressed already and shown glimpses of why he is rated so highly. At the moment though it’s unfair and unrealistic to rely on a first year player to carry the forward line, so others need to step up and help him out. So far this season it’s been the smalls that have done the majority of the scoring for the Lions with Zorko, Taylor, Hanley and Christensen leading the goal kicking. No one has managed to kick 10 goals in total yet though but they do get the chance to exploit a slow and under manned Magpies backline on Saturday night. If the Lions can get the ball inside 50 quickly, they may be able to score more heavily than they have recently. Inaccuracy is also a massive problem for Brisbane as they currently rank 15^th with a woeful percentage of 44.8. Inaccuracy at goal has arguably cost them two games already and it may well decide this game as well.

The loss of Rockliff hurts the Lions no doubt, but the return of Merrett will stabilize them down back at least. There are several options to replace the injured skipper too with Mathieson, Green, Taylor and Robertson among those fighting to be included. This is a game the Lions will target to win, there’s realistically not many they can win but this is one. The Pies are ripe for the picking and with most likely their biggest home crowd of the season behind them, this is a virtual final for the Lions. They need another win too, just to galvanize the group and show that they are moving in the right direction.

TEAMS

B: Ben Sinclair, Jack Frost, Brayden Maynard
HB: Adam Oxley, Alan Toovey, Josh Smith
C: Travis Varcoe, Adam Treloar, Steele Sidebottom
HF: Jordan De Goey, Darcy Moore, Jesse White
F: Alex Fasolo, Mason Cox, Jarryd Blair
Foll: Brodie Grundy, Scott Pendlebury, Taylor Adams
Int: Levi Greenwood, Jack Crisp, Jeremy Howe, Ben Crocker
Emg: Travis Cloke, Jonathon Marsh, Tom Phillips

B	#27 Darcy Gardiner	#21 Daniel Merrett	#25 Daniel McStay
HB	#17 Claye Beams	#22 Marco Paparone	#32 Sam Mayes
C	#35 Ryan Lester	#3 Allen Christensen	#10 Daniel Rich
HF	#11 Pearce Hanley	#28 Lewis Taylor	#8 Rohan Bewick
F	#14 Josh Walker	#23 Josh Schache	#4 Ryan Bastinac
FOL	#12 Stefan Martin	#15 Dayne Zorko	#9 Dayne Beams
INT	#1 Ben Keays	#2 Ryan Harwood	#5 Mitch Robinson
	#7 Tom Bell
E	#6 Josh Green	#13 Trent West	#36 Rhys Mathieson

TIP

This should be a tight game, with both teams out of form and effected by injury. The probable return of Travis Varcoe and the loss of Rockliff may well be the difference here though. In a game like this, with so many inexperienced players on the ground, leadership can be a key, and both Varcoe and Rockliff have that.

The return of Daniel Merrett covers the loss of Rockliff a little, but for the Lions to win this game they have to dominate in the middle and I can’t see that happening without their captain. The Magpies have won their last 3 games at the GABBA and if Varcoe lines up I think they’ll make it four in a row in Brisbane.

MAGPIES BY 8 POINTS

AFL Round 8 – Collingwood vs Gold Coast Match Preview.

What has happened to the Gold Coast Suns? That’s the question that everyone is asking right now. Rewind to round 16 last season and the Suns were on the verge of playing in their first finals series in their fourth year in the competition. They had fought their way to an 8-6 win loss record and were hosting the struggling Collingwood Magpies at home in front of what would turn out to be their biggest crowd yet. Since that July night at Metricon Stadium it’s been nothing short of a disaster for the Suns. They have played 14 games and only won two, with one win coming over the wooden spoon winning Saints last season, and the other against cross town rivals the Lions 3 weeks ago. They did defeat the Magpies that night but lost captain and club superstar Gary Ablett for the rest of the season, with a shoulder injury that has lingered into season 2015. They also failed to make the finals finishing 12^th. There’s more to the story then just losing one player though, they sacked their coach, Guy McKenna, there were off season drug problems, the injury list is longer then it’s ever been and this season there’s plenty of off field problems too. Simply put the Suns are a mess at the moment and need to turn it around quickly or face losing all hope for season 2015.

This Saturday they host their nemesis from that fateful July night, Collingwood. The Magpies aren’t exactly sailing along freely either with back to back losses. The Pies find themselves sitting inside the top 8 with a 4-3 record while the struggling Suns sit in 17^th position with a 1-7 record with only percentage keeping them off the bottom. These 2 clubs do share one thing in common at the moment and that’s a long and talented injury list. This game is crucial for both teams, Collingwood needs the win to keep themselves ahead of a chasing pack while the Suns need a win to give their fans some hope for the rest of the season.

PREVIOUS FORM

Only two weeks ago Collingwood were seemingly cruising, having started the season with a 4-1 record. The last two weeks though the absence of some best 22 players has started to take it’s toll as the Pies have given up losses to Geelong and Richmond. The 5 point loss to Richmond would hurt most though, as it was a game the Pies led several times, even in the final 5 minutes. The Tigers kicked the most crucial 2 goals of the game late on though and despite a goal on the siren it was a tough loss for the men in black and white. It leaves them precariously placed in 7^th, with only a superior percentage keeping them in the top 8 for now.

The Gold Coast Suns have been woeful this season, it’s not hard to say that at all. They started the season with losses to lowly Melbourne and St Kilda and it hasn’t got much better from there. They’ve had their moments still though with a hard fought loss to Geelong away from home a big win over the Lions in the first Q Clash of the season. Those 2 games have papered over the cracks though, there’s massive problems at the Suns under new coach Rodney Eade and they may have reached a new low last week with the 92 point drubbing by the Eagles in Perth. The Suns showed no fight, little effort and were destroyed by a middle of the road side. They will have to respond this week as after Collingwood they face last year’s grand finalists back to back so a loss to the Pies will most likely see them start the season with a 1-9 record.

COLLINGWOOD PREVIEW

The loss to the Tigers was unexpected by most involved with Collingwood yet in hindsight it wasn’t a huge surprise. Collingwood got beaten in the midfield when it counted and with the likes of Sidebottom, Greenwood, Reid, Macaffer, Ramsay, Thomas and Young missing through injury it wasn’t such a bad effort after all. Losing reliable defender Alan Toovey during the game hurt too and it seems unlikely that Collingwood will regain any of the above names for this Saturday’s trip north. There have been positives for the Pies though so far in season 2015. The form of young ruckman Brodie Grundy has been extraordinary for a third year ruckman really. The recruit of the year so far for the Pies is one of the unlikeliest too, ex Brisbane Lion Jack Crisp has played every game and has a healthy average of 19 possessions, 5 tackles and a goal per game to show for it.

This week against the Suns the Pies will be hoping Jackson Ramsay and Steele Sidebottom will pass fitness tests but at the moment it seems unlikely that both will play. The VFL Magpies did have another good win though hanging on against Richmond’s VFL outfit for a 3 point win at Punt Road Oval on Sunday. Out of that game Ben Kennedy, Alex Fasolo, Corey Gault and Jonathan Marsh will push for selection with Marsh a chance to debut as a replacement for the injured Toovey. This is an absolute must win game for Collingwood, with a tough game to come against North Melbourne next week they can’t afford to lose 3 in a row. The Magpies effort against the Tigers was good, apart from the second quarter, and if they can replicate that against the Suns they should come away with a win.

OPPOSITION ANALYSIS

The only way is up for the Suns really, that’s the train of thought they have to be taking into this weekend’s clash with the Pies. Their performance against the Eagles last Sunday was as bad as anyone has played so far in season 2015. Considering the game was played in wet and slippery conditions to almost lose by 100 points is unforgivable really. It did seem as if coach Rodney Eade did almost by pass the game though virtually resting several players from the longest trip in football. This week the Suns will hope to regain several players off their long injury list but with plenty still weeks away from returning, including Gary Ablett, most of the improvement will have to come from those that played in Perth.

If the Suns have a strength it’s the midfield. Even without Gary Ablett, Jaeger O’Meara and David Swallow the Suns still rank in the top 3 in the league for centre clearances and contested possessions. The loss of those 3 mentioned players has hurt them on the outside though as shown by the Suns possessing the worst disposal efficiency of anyone in the AFL. They can win the ball though, with the likes of Prestia, Rischitelli, Hallahan, Stanley and Bennell helping to put the Suns near the top in contested possessions. The ruck isn’t really as settled with Tom Nicholls out performing Zac Smith so far this season to the point where Smith may be dropped to make way for a youngster like Wright or Brooksby. They do face a Collingwood midfield though which is weakened also so this is one area the Suns may be able to win on the day.

The Gold Coast backline has been under extreme pressure so far this season and it’s held up quite well considering the level of inexperience in defense, especially when it comes to key position defenders. Last week Henry Schade and Jack Leslie started as the key defenders and they had a total of 4 games between them. With injuries to several key position players throughout the Suns list it really has left their backline severely weakened. They still have good run and carry out of defense with Harbrow, Kolodjashnij, Lonergan, McKenzie and Broughton using their pace and skill. Of course they run head long into Travis Cloke this week and with Rory Thompson unlikely to play whether the young Suns defense can restrict Cloke, Jesse White and Jamie Elliott may well decide this game.

The Suns forward line is still a work in progress but it is dangerous in it’s own way. Led by Tom Lynch (who missed last week but should return vs the Pies) and Charlie Dixon it possesses enough talent to trouble most defenses. The absence of Sam Day and Jack Martin does restrict their ability to really be efficient but it’s still a decent enough attack. The problem that the Suns has is that they really haven’t had enough help for their key position forwards so far in 2015. Brandon Matera hasn’t started the year well and outside of Matera and the 2 talls no one averages more then a goal a game this season for the Gold Coast Suns. This week they will face a slightly weakened Magpies defense with Jackson Ramsay, Ben Reid and Alan Toovey all likely to miss. At home you’d expect the Suns to get their fair share of inside 50’s it’s just a matter of whether they can worry the Pies defense enough.

The Suns have been severely hit by injuries so far in 2015 but it does seem as if they will get a few players back this week and in the coming weeks. The problem is that may be too late. This is a real must win game for the Gold Coast if they are even to be a chance of matching last year’s final ladder position, let alone improving on it. A loss here and it won’t matter when those injured players are returning as no one is making an impact after a 1-7 start to the season. They will pray that the likes of Malceski, Thompson, Lynch, Saad and Martin all come back earlier then expected but it’s very unlikely that all of those named will return. They do get a slight chance against a Pies outfit that is also injury hit especially in regards to talented players. The Suns simply have to show some fight here, it’s not so much about winning and losing now but more about showing the football world that they do care and do have a bright future indeed.

TEAMS

Collingwood
B: Tom Langdon, Nathan Brown, Marley Williams
HB: Adam Oxley, Jack Frost, Tyson Goldsack
C: Travis Varcoe, Dane Swan, Paul Seedsman
HF: Jamie Elliott, Jesse White, Steele Sidebottom
F: Jarryd Blair, Travis Cloke, Alex Fasolo
Foll: Brodie Grundy, Taylor Adams, Scott Pendlebury
Int: Jarrod Witts, Tim Broomhead, Jack Crisp, Jordan De Goey
Emg: Sam Dwyer, Jonathon Marsh, Brayden Maynard

IN: Alex Fasolo, Steele Sidebottom
OUT: Alan Toovey (jarred knee), Patrick Karnezis (omitted)

Milestone: Scott Pendlebury (200 AFL games)

Gold Coast
B: Adam Saad, Henry Schade, Kade Kolodjashnij
HB: Jarrod Harbrow, Jack Leslie, Jesse Lonergan
C: Andrew Raines, Dion Prestia, Alex Sexton
HF: Aaron Hall, Tom J. Lynch, Harley Bennell
F: Danny Stanley, Charlie Dixon, Touk Miller
Foll: Tom Nicholls, Michael Rischitelli, Mitch Hallahan
Int: Luke Russell, Trent McKenzie, Brandon Matera, Sean Lemmens
Emg: Andrew Boston, Keegan Brooksby, Greg Broughton

IN: Adam Saad, Tom J. Lynch, Luke Russell
OUT: Matt Shaw (Omitted), Zac Smith (Omitted), Greg Broughton (Omitted)

TIP

Both teams are banged up leading into this game so that evens the injury ledger out a fair bit. On form Collingwood should win, they’ve been competitive while losing against better teams then the Suns. Gold Coast are back home though, where they undoubtedly play their best football so by no means will this game be easy for the Magpies.

The return of Steele Sidebottom makes this top a lot easier now with Collingwood short favourites to win and that’s exactly what they should do.

MAGPIES BY 28 POINTS.

CONGRATULATIONS SCOTT PENDLEBURY 200 GAMES

Collingwood captain Scott Pendlebury will play his 200^th AFL this Saturday on the Gold Coast. Pendlebury, who is widely known as one of the best midfielders in the AFL has moulded himself into a strong leader also. To reach his 200^th game at the age of 27 shows his reliability and durability over time. He is a champion player and loved by all Magpies fans alike. Congratulations Scott.