AFL Round 8 – Collingwood vs Brisbane Match Preview.

It doesn’t get much worse than this for the Collingwood football club. If the Magpies lose to the Brisbane Lions this weekend, they will be entrenched in the bottom four of the AFL ladder with a 2-6 win/loss record. That’s simply not good enough. Not for a club with some of the best resources in the world of sport. Not for a club that has been rebuilding for three seasons Not for a club with the most ardent and passionate fans a club could wish for. But it’s reality. The Magpies were poor again when in counted, on the field against Carlton at the M.C.G. It was Carlton of all teams, the old enemy, that reduced the Magpies to the lowest point of coach Nathan Buckley’s tenure. Even club president Eddie McGuire, usually the most stable and loyal backer of the club and coach, talked about wanting to quit after the loss.

That loss left the Magpies with a 2-5 record ahead of a trip north to play the Brisbane Lions. The Lions themselves aren’t exactly flying along with only one win this season. They also have a coach under pressure, declining crowd numbers and a young list. This is an absolutely vital game for both clubs, even if neither is any chance of making finals in season 2016. The Lions after defeating cross town rivals the Suns, and almost knocking off the Swans at home, made the trip to Adelaide Oval on Sunday to face Port Adelaide. Once again inaccurate kicking at goal cost them any chance. At three quarter time the Lions were matching the Power for shots at goal, but found themselves 48 points down. It’s a concern that is all too familiar for Brisbane fans.

That leads us to this game, which will see the 14^th and 16^th placed teams face off. There’s a myth that Collingwood don’t play well at the GABBA, the scene of this Saturday night’s matchup, yet the Pies have won 5 of their last 7 games at the ground, including their last 3. That may well give the disjointed Magpies the confidence they need to get a much needed win.

 

COLLINGWOOD PREVIEW

Collingwood is struggling, in every way a club can be. Their injury list is long and talented, the players who are fit are under performing and there seems to be little cohesion on game day. Talking about injuries, the Pies just can’t take a trick at the moment. It seems as if they will lose another three players this week with Tim Broomhead (ankle), Ben Reid (shoulder) and Nathan Brown (hamstring) unlikely to be available for this game. That extends the injury list out to a possible season high of 15, which is staggering really. There may be some good news on the injury front though with Travis Varcoe, Ben Sinclair, Marley Williams and Taylor Adams close to returning from various ailments. While the criticism of the Magpies performance has been just, the long and talented injury list has to be taken into account.

Even in the doom and gloom there are positives. Captain and vice captain, Scott Pendlebury and Steele Sidebottom, led from the front against Carlton along with star recruit Adam Treloar. Up forward Darcy Moore and Alex Fasolo continue to add to their goal tally every week, although they do lack assistance inside forward 50. The Pies are also getting plenty of games into their youngsters, with Ben Crocker the latest to get a debut, moving the number of players Collingwood has used in 7 games up to 36. That number is way too high of course, but it may fast track the development of a list that is still relatively young. Then there’s the areas that the Pies are really struggling with. Holding the ball inside the forward zone was always a strength of any Collingwood side over the past decade or so, but this team seems incapable of doing so. That has led to the injury decimated backline being placed under extreme pressure, and quite simply it can’t cope. The Magpies have conceded 96 uncontested marks inside defensive 50, which is far and above the most of any team in the first 7 rounds. Transition defense is a massive worry for coach Nathan Buckley. It’s so obvious that teams are now picking his team apart as easy as they like.

Of course it can turn around quickly, this is yet another winnable game for the Magpies. To win it though they will need reinforcements, and more help from their bottom tiered players. Outside of Pendlebury, Treloar and Sidebottom no other Magpie is ranked in the top 110 players in the AFL this season. That’s a glaring statistic, and shows those 3 need help. Levi Greenwood has to lift, although playing him out of position at half forward isn’t ideal. Jesse White should keep his spot and played one of his better games last week as a versatile swingman. Ruckman Brodie Grundy is struggling too though, and up against Stefan Martin this week if he doesn’t lift his game the Pies will be in trouble again. It’s a game Collingwood can win, but you wouldn’t be putting money on them based on the past few weeks of output.

BRISBANE PREVIEW

The Brisbane Lions are an interesting team to analyze. They’ve only played in the one final series since making the 2004 Grand Final. Club champion and current coach Justin Leppitsch has been charged with the rebuild of the club yet so far he hasn’t go them any higher than 15^th. There is hope though, they do have some of the best young players in the competition and have recruited well in recent times. Of course one of those big recruits was Dayne Beams, the Collingwood premiership midfielder who asked for a trade home 18 months back. Beams, like some of the other Lions best players though, has spent significant time on the sideline due to injury. Like Collingwood it seems, there’s bigger problems a foot than just blaming the coach or recruiting. There is talent on their list, and their most recent home game showed on their day they can match it with the very best teams in the competition.

If the Lions have an area of strength it has to be their midfield, even with captain Tom Rockliff likely to be missing for 2-3 weeks. Dayne Beams returned last week from injury and straight away made an impact with 8 clearances, and with help from the likes of Robinson, Bastinac, Rich and Zorko the Lions should be able to be competitive. Where they will gain a massive advantage is in the ruck, with one of the league’s clear best ruckman, Stefan Martin in career best form. The Pies have been smashed in the ruck of late and Martin should give the Lions first use of the ball most times. Brisbane will also try and exploit the lack of pace in the Pies midfield by getting their smaller players involved more and moving the ball quickly. If they can win the midfield battle they can win the game.

The Brisbane backline was slaughtered last week after the late withdrawal of stalwart Daniel Merrett. He should return for this game and they’ll need him to take either Cox or Moore. The one player of greatest concern for the Lions defense will be Alex Fasolo though, and if they can contain the enigmatic Pies forward they will gain a massive advantage. Brisbane can rebound the ball out of their backline better than most teams, with Daniel Rich and Pearce Hanley as classy as anyone around in that area. They will look to exploit the Pies inability to hold the ball inside that forward zone and get the ball forward quickly.

Talking about the forward line, and the Lions forward line is a real work in progress. The Lions knew their forward line was an area they had to address and they had no hesitation in taking Josh Schache with the second overall pick. Schache, who has only missed one game so far, has impressed already and shown glimpses of why he is rated so highly. At the moment though it’s unfair and unrealistic to rely on a first year player to carry the forward line, so others need to step up and help him out. So far this season it’s been the smalls that have done the majority of the scoring for the Lions with Zorko, Taylor, Hanley and Christensen leading the goal kicking. No one has managed to kick 10 goals in total yet though but they do get the chance to exploit a slow and under manned Magpies backline on Saturday night. If the Lions can get the ball inside 50 quickly, they may be able to score more heavily than they have recently. Inaccuracy is also a massive problem for Brisbane as they currently rank 15^th with a woeful percentage of 44.8. Inaccuracy at goal has arguably cost them two games already and it may well decide this game as well.

The loss of Rockliff hurts the Lions no doubt, but the return of Merrett will stabilize them down back at least. There are several options to replace the injured skipper too with Mathieson, Green, Taylor and Robertson among those fighting to be included. This is a game the Lions will target to win, there’s realistically not many they can win but this is one. The Pies are ripe for the picking and with most likely their biggest home crowd of the season behind them, this is a virtual final for the Lions. They need another win too, just to galvanize the group and show that they are moving in the right direction.

TEAMS

B: Ben Sinclair, Jack Frost, Brayden Maynard
HB: Adam Oxley, Alan Toovey, Josh Smith
C: Travis Varcoe, Adam Treloar, Steele Sidebottom
HF: Jordan De Goey, Darcy Moore, Jesse White
F: Alex Fasolo, Mason Cox, Jarryd Blair
Foll: Brodie Grundy, Scott Pendlebury, Taylor Adams
Int: Levi Greenwood, Jack Crisp, Jeremy Howe, Ben Crocker
Emg: Travis Cloke, Jonathon Marsh, Tom Phillips

B	#27 Darcy Gardiner	#21 Daniel Merrett	#25 Daniel McStay
HB	#17 Claye Beams	#22 Marco Paparone	#32 Sam Mayes
C	#35 Ryan Lester	#3 Allen Christensen	#10 Daniel Rich
HF	#11 Pearce Hanley	#28 Lewis Taylor	#8 Rohan Bewick
F	#14 Josh Walker	#23 Josh Schache	#4 Ryan Bastinac
FOL	#12 Stefan Martin	#15 Dayne Zorko	#9 Dayne Beams
INT	#1 Ben Keays	#2 Ryan Harwood	#5 Mitch Robinson
	#7 Tom Bell
E	#6 Josh Green	#13 Trent West	#36 Rhys Mathieson

TIP

This should be a tight game, with both teams out of form and effected by injury. The probable return of Travis Varcoe and the loss of Rockliff may well be the difference here though. In a game like this, with so many inexperienced players on the ground, leadership can be a key, and both Varcoe and Rockliff have that.

The return of Daniel Merrett covers the loss of Rockliff a little, but for the Lions to win this game they have to dominate in the middle and I can’t see that happening without their captain. The Magpies have won their last 3 games at the GABBA and if Varcoe lines up I think they’ll make it four in a row in Brisbane.

MAGPIES BY 8 POINTS

AFL Round 21 – Collingwood vs Brisbane Match Preview.

Ninth place, most say it’s the worst position to finish at the end of the AFL home and away season, and that’s exactly where Collingwood sit with three games remaining. You see, if you finish 9^th you don’t play finals, but you also don’t get a particularly high draft pick, so it could just be the worst place to finish. It’s been a strange season for Collingwood, that has now turned into an underwhelming season. The Magpies came into 2014 hoping to improve on not winning a final last year, yet after 19 games it’s becoming apparent that they may not play finals at all.

This weekend, on Saturday night, they host the Brisbane Lions at the MCG in a round 21 matchup that could kill off the Magpies season once and for all. The Lions finals hopes disappeared long ago as they sit in 15^th spot with only 6 wins out of 19 games. Brisbane started the season terribly only winning one of their first 9 games so the decision to play as many youngsters as possible became an easy one for coach Justin Leppitsch. Their form has improved though in the second half of the year with 5 wins out of their last 10 games, which is actually the same as what the Magpies have won in that same period. These two clubs do have some history, with the most obvious clashes being in the 2002 and 2003 seasons when they faced off in back to back Grand Finals, with the Lions coming out on top both times. Both senior coaches this week played in those Grand Finals which adds another twist to a game that the Pies simply must win.

COLLINGWOOD PREVIEW

Slump, I think that’s the right word to describe what Collingwood are going through at the moment, having won only 2 of their last 8 games. The most recent loss, last weekend over in Perth to the Eagles by 60 points, really solidified that this Magpies outfit is just playing out the season now. Yes there’s still a slight chance they could make the final 8 and play a final or two, but even the most ardent of Collingwood fan wouldn’t believe they can do any damage in September now. It’s fallen away quickly too, after starting the season 8-3 and sitting in 4^th spot on the ladder after a win over Melbourne, the Pies were even being talked about as premiership threats. Well that’s over now, they aren’t even a threat to sides around them it seems. Last week’s loss was a disaster though, from start to finish the Pies rarely looked like a finals contending team with very few consistent performers on the day. Their 3 star midfielders did their bit, with Beams, Pendlebury and Sidebottom all racking up decent numbers but their direct opponents also got plenty of the ball. The depth of the Magpies midfield and backline was exposed badly as the Eagles ran rampant and kept their season alive. Amongst the doom and gloom of the last 8 weeks there has been some positives though with the return of Ben Reid and the VFL debut of a few Pies future stars, showing that there is still a light at the end of the tunnel. That loss left Collingwood in 9^th and with a big dent to their percentage they probably have to win out to even have a chance of finishing in the top 8 now.

There is some good news in regards to selection for Collingwood this week at least with Dane Swan ready to return after missing a few games through injury. Luke Ball has had 2 good performances in the VFL and should also come back into the 22. The VFL had another good win so there are options from there including Grundy, Karnezis, Thomas, Mooney and Sinclair, with all available for selection this week. Tom Langdon travelled to Perth as the emergency so even he could come back in if the selection committee really want to send a message and make 5-6 changes. No matter what the final selection is though it’s always about intensity for Collingwood, you know early in a game if they are on or not, and against the Eagles it was obvious they weren’t. It would be the final nail in the coffin if they lost to the Lions so more fight is required this week from the Pies players.

OPPOSITION ANALYSIS

The Lions came into the 2014 season knowing it was going to be tough after losing 5 of their highly rated youngsters to their home stats in the off season. It left the Lions with a very young and inexperienced list and then when the inevitable injuries hit, like they do at all clubs, the depth simply wasn’t there to provide cover. The last 10 weeks have been more promising though as some of those youngsters get more experienced and the Lions injury list shrunk. 5 wins in 10 games is as good as their opponents this week although just like the Pies they are coming off a thumping last weekend. The loss to the Crows was one out of the blue for a Brisbane team who had only lost one game by a big margin since round 9. They will want to redeem themselves this week and show they simply aren’t that bad and they do have a promising future.

Tom Rockliff plays his 100th game this weekend.

The Brisbane Lions midfield is going through a transition and it really has struggled this season. The Lions rank last for contested possessions and sit in the bottom 5 for clearances and centre clearances. It is a young midfield though with names like Rockliff, Aish, Bewick, Hanley, Zorko and Mayes it’s little wonder that they rank poorly in most categories. They have had games where they’ve looked dangerous in the middle though but as with most young groups consistency is an issue. The ruck situation looked dire for a while at the Lions this year with Matthew Leunberger (finally a chance to return this week) missing so much football but in the last few weeks ex Demon Stefan Martin has really filled the hole and has been very impressive. The good news for the Lions is they run into a Pies midfield that isn’t performing well itself, as if you take out the recent win over the Power they’ve been smashed in the middle just about every week.

The Lions defense actually has some experienced campaigners in it with McGuire, Patfull and Adcock providing solidity down back in a team severely lacking that trait. Around them though is inexperience and with the midfield being beaten most weeks the backline hasn’t been able to hold up under the constant barrage of opposition forward entries. The Lions have conceded the 16^th most points this season and their away record has been very poor indeed. They do clash with a Pies forward line that has been dysfunctional itself although the likes of Cloke, Elliott, Reid and White should really dominate against a backline of this ilk.

The Brisbane forward line lost one of it’s all time greats in recent weeks when Jonathan Brown called it quits after yet another head injury. Brown had been the rock for so long that had held not only the forward line but the whole team together but without him the Lions have really struggled to put a score on the board, with only one total over 100 for the season. Daniel Merrett has had to stay up forward when he he plays his best football down back, and if you look at the rest of the names in the forward line you can see why. Josh Green is leading the goal kicking for the club with 27 goals, but after that it drops away significantly. Only Jack Crisp averages more than a goal a game outside of Green and the retired Brown. If there’s a positive for the Lions it’s that they face a Pies defense in disarray, a backline that has capitulated several times in the last few months due to it’s own inexperience. It’s the one area of the ground the Lions will have to exploit the Pies if they are to be any chance at all.

The Lions will want to put up a better showing here than they did against the Crows, and their intensity has to more consistent and higher throughout this game. They need to win their fair share of the ball in the middle to be any chance because the only area you can see them exploiting Collingwood is if they can get the ball forward quickly and with accuracy. It’s only the Lions second (and last) game at the MCG this year and with Tom Rockliff playing his 100^th game they should put up a fight against a Collingwood side who itself is struggling.

TEAMS

Collingwood
B: Marley Williams, Jack Frost, Tyson Goldsack
HB: Alan Toovey, Lachlan Keeffe, Alex Fasolo
C: Steele Sidebottom, Dane Swan, Heritier Lumumba
HF: Jarryd Blair, Ben Reid, Tim Broomhead
F: Jamie Elliott, Travis Cloke, Brodie Grundy
Foll: Jarrod Witts, Dayne Beams, Scott Pendlebury
Int: Brent Macaffer, Ben Kennedy, Luke Ball, Ben Sinclair
Emg: Clinton Young, Jesse White, Tony Armstrong

IN: Luke Ball, Brodie Grundy, Ben Sinclair, Dane Swan
OUT: Sam Dwyer (hamstring), Tony Armstrong, Jesse White, Clinton Young (omitted)

Brisbane
B: Justin Clarke, Matt Maguire, Darcy Gardiner
HB: Jack Crisp, Joel Patfull, Pearce Hanley
C: Sam Mayes, Jed Adcock, Dayne Zorko
HF: Lewis Taylor, Jonathan Freeman, James Aish
F: Daniel McStay, Michael Close, Daniel Merrett
Foll: Stefan Martin, Ryan Harwood, Josh Green
Int: Rohan Bewick, Claye Beams, Marco Paparone, Tom Rockliff
Emg: Nick Robertson, Ryan Lester, Zac O’Brien

IN: Claye Beams
OUT: Nick Robertson (omitted)

Milestone: Tom Rockliff (100 games)

TIP

Collingwood should win this game, but you would have said the same when they played the Bulldogs and the Suns, yet look what happened there. The performance last week may well have been as season low for both clubs and you’d expect they would both come out firing early on with a hard attack on the ball.

Ultimately there just seems to be way too many holes in the Lions young side to worry the Pies at home and Collingwood will come away with a comfortable win.

PIES BY 32 POINTS.

VFL

The Collingwood VFL side is up to 6^th on the ladder and with two games remaining before the finals are just about guaranteed of making the top 8. This weekend they travel down to Geelong to play the Cats VFL outfit. The game starts at 11am at Kardinia Park.

AFL Round 10 – Collingwood vs Brisbane Match Preview.

INCONSISTENT, that’s the simplest way to sum up what has transpired so far in the 2013 season for the Collingwood Football Club. Since round 2 when the Magpies defeated their arch rivals Carlton to start the season with a perfect 2-0 record, they have not won, or lost two games in a row. There are of course excuses and reasons floating around but the simple fact is that at the moment Collingwood is struggling to perform anywhere near it’s highest level for two consecutive weeks. This Friday night the club will travel interstate for the second time this season when it takes on the Brisbane Lions at the GABBA. The Lions themselves are a bit of an enigma having beaten the top four contending Essendon in Melbourne two weeks ago, only to fall at home to an inaccurate Carlton last weekend. Brisbane has showed that on their day, when things click for them they can be a highly dangerous team and the Magpies will have to return to form to win this Friday night.

PREVIOUS FORM

Rohan Bewick was impressive in the Lions loss last week.

Last Saturday night in Brisbane the Lions hosted Carlton in what was a crucial game for both sides and despite a strong second term from the home team the Blues ran away with a 13 point win, with the final margin flattering the Lions just a little bit. After a 6 goal to 2 second term that saw the Lions take a lead into half time it was the Blues who were clearly the better team as they put up 5 goals and 13 behinds in the second half compared to the Lions 3 goals and 9 behinds. Put simply, if Carlton had of kicked straight it wouldn’t have been close, so the Lions will have to improve plenty of they are to avoid back to back home losses on Friday night. Further bad news came out of the match for Brisbane too with no.1 ruckman Matthew Leuenberger badly dislocating a thumb which will mean he will miss as many as the next four matches and tough midfielder Tom Rockliff likely to miss at least 2 weeks with a quad strain. Club champion Jonathon Brown will also miss this clash as he was cited, then suspended for a high hit on Jamison from the Blues. There were a few positives for the Lions though with Rohan Bewick performing well up forward with three goals and Pearce Hanley and Brent Moloney playing their bit in driving the Lions forward at times, ultimately though it wasn’t enough and Brisbane will have to find four replacements for the missing Leuenberger, Rockliff, Brown and Merrett adding to their already patchy form.

Collingwood at the moment aren’t going much better in fact you could say the last few weeks has almost mirrored the Lions form with a stunning upset two weeks ago over Geelong followed by a poor output in a heavy loss to the reigning premiers, the Sydney Swans. That loss to the Swans was brutal, the Pies were never really in the game and the final margin of 47 points probably could have been even more if not for a spirited effort by the Magpies in the final term, not that it counted for much really. It was a massive turnaround in output from the week before when the Pies had been so good, yet against the Swans they went almost two entire quarters without a goal at one stage and had very little excuse as to why that was so. Sydney were great, but it has to be said that Collingwood hasn’t put up a more insipid effort so far this season. If there was one clear positive on the night it was the form of Luke Ball in just his second game back after more than a year off, who gathered 28 possessions and showed that he has returned in fine form and will be of great help to the Magpies going forward. They’ll need that help though as even though the win/loss pattern suggests they will bounce back to form it will take a much better effort and performance than they showed last week if they are to get their season back on track in Brisbane this week.

COLLINGWOOD PREVIEW

Collingwood desperately need a win, in fact they need to find a way to put a few wins together and that may start this week as the draw gets a little bit easier in the coming weeks. A win against the Lions should launch at least a three game winning streak that could get them back in top 4 or at least top 6 contention. Injuries are still hurting the Pies though with no return in sight for last years’ best and fairest Dayne Beams and top recruit Clinton Young pretty much in the same category. The Magpies will get Heath Shaw back this week and he will slot nicely into a defense that is struggling more than it has in the past 5-6 years. With the absence of Toovey, Shaw and Goldsack last week the Magpies backline really couldn’t cope with what the Swans threw at them and it’s a given that there will be some changes to that set up this week as coach Nathan Buckley has alluded to. The experienced Ben Johnson may be one option or even Ben Sinclair who has been spending time down back in the VFL since being omitted from the senior team. In the middle Kyle Martin is almost certain to make his AFL debut at the age of 22 although he is yet to be promoted off the rookie list, it seems a mere formality after yet another best on ground performance in the VFL. The Pies may also choose to bring in Jackson Paine or Alan Didak to bolster it’s struggling forward line as once again Elliott and Cloke were the only players who could be relied upon last week inside the forward half.

Since the loss to the Swans senior coach Nathan Buckley has also spoken about the weaknesses of his side and has hinted at a mini rebuild or maybe a change of strategy in terms of selection so that his side can compete with the best sides in the competition come the end of the year. The changes that are made on Thursday night will give us a hint into just how drastic a change Buckley is thinking about but there is sure to be one or two shocks it seems when it comes to the selected Pies 22 for the Lions game.

Even with the long and talented injury list and inconsistent form the Magpies should win this game and it will be drilled into them that their intensity must not let up for the entire game if they are to get back into form leading into the second half of the season.

OPPOSITION ANALYSIS

The Brisbane Lions came into this season with a renewed hope and optimism after an impressive NAB Cup campaign that saw them make the final of the pre season competition. But after nine rounds of the season they would have to be disappointed with where they sit, with a record of 3 wins and 6 losses that sees them sitting in 14^th position on the ladder, a full two games and and percentage out of 8^th spot. Yes, they have had their fair share of injuries but as Collingwood themselves have found out injuries to key players is a current occurrence in the AFL and it’s something you need to plan for, and deal with as they come. The Lions do have some talent though, as shown by their remarkable upset win over Essendon just two weeks ago, although the result last week bought them back to earth in a hurry.

The Lions backline may well be missing it’s most important player this week, Daniel Merrett but it still has the ability to restrict teams to a reasonable score, even if they were assisted by Carlton’s poor kicking last week. Joel Patfull and youngster Justin Clarke are likely to be given the responsibility of stopping Travis Cloke this week and it will be interesting to see if Collingwood persists with Jarrod Witts as a second ruckman/forward because if he does play the Lions defense may not have enough talls to match up on Lynch, Cloke and the secondary ruckman. The Lions do have some run and carry ability off half back though with Mcgrath, Hanley, Yeo, Docherty and Hanley all capable of exploiting one of Collingwood’s weaknesses which is the counter attack out of their forward line. The Swans and Dockers have exploited that weakness to no end in the last three weeks and it may be the one area that the Lions can really hurt the Magpies in on Friday night.

Lions champion Simon Black is still a big part of the Lions midfield.

Brisbane still has some talent in the midfield despite the absence of Rockliff, Rich and Polec and their new recruit, ex demon Brent Moloney is probably the most consistent of this talented group. Joining Moloney in the midfield rotation are names such as Black, Redden, Polkinghorne, Hanley, Zorko, Karnezis and Raines which shows the Lions do have a deep midfield even if it doesn’t have the absolute stars that some teams possess in the AFL. The loss of Matthew Leuenberger hurts the Lions in the ruck as this is yet another area that the Magpies have struggled in so far in 2013, ranking last or near last in just about every ruck statistical category there is. Brisbane are likely to recall second year youngster Billy Longer and while he is no doubt a promising youngster against a strong bodied ruck opponent like Darren Jolly (or Ben Hudson if Jolly is rested) it will be interesting to see how the young man goes. With the Magpies missing Beams, Thomas and Fasolo from their midfield rotation there is a chance for the Lions to get on top in the middle although the absence of their number one ruckman will hurt them you’d suspect.

Inside the forward zone the Lions will obviously miss the absence of their inspirational skipper Jonathan Brown who didn’t beat a striking charge at the tribunal and will miss the next three weeks (the third being a bye for the Lions). 19 year old key forward Michael Close is a big chance of coming in and making an impact and once again the Lions will have to put faith in a youngster where previously they had an experienced and reliable key position player. What the Lions do possess however is a decent line up of small and medium forwards and I know it’s getting repetitive but this is just another area that the once all mighty Collingwood has struggled in, negating pacy and talented small forwards. Names like Green, Zorko, Bewick, Staker and those in the midfield rotation who spend time down forward will no doubt worry a Collingwood backline that is struggling to say the least at the moment. Ex Hawk Jordan Lisle may be the wild card here, he was very highly rated at the Hawks but injuries and an abundance of key forward talent in front of him meant the move to the Lions was a good thing for all parties, but he has to stand up in the absence of Brown right now.

The Brisbane Lions go into this game knowing nothing short of a win will keep their faint hopes of making the finals alive and it’s that desperation that can be dangerous, even when a team is under manned like the Lions are. The absence of those big name players while a negative at first can sometimes be a positive as it allows youngsters and those fringe players to push a case for regular senior selection and that’s what coach Michael Voss will be hoping for this week. Brisbane will be desperate, their intensity will be up but it may come down to just how well those newer players perform as to whether or not they can stay with and even defeat the Magpies.

TEAMS

Collingwood
B: Nathan Brown, Ben Reid, Harry O’Brien
HB: Heath Shaw, Nick Maxwell, Marley Williams
C: Steele Sidebottom, Dane Swan, Luke Ball
HF: Jamie Elliott, Quinten Lynch, Brent Macaffer
F: Ben Kennedy, Travis Cloke, Alan Didak
Foll: Darren Jolly, Scott Pendlebury, Jarryd Blair
Int: Andrew Krakouer, Josh Thomas, Kyle Martin, Paul Seedsman
Emg: Marty Clarke, Jarrod Witts, Ben Sinclair

IN: Didak, Martin, Shaw, J.Thomas
OUT: Dwyer (groin), Russell (ankle), Clarke, Witts (omitted)

NEW: Kyle Martin (22, Noble Park/Frankston)

Brisbane
B: J. Adcock, J. Patfull, A. McGrath
HB: E. Yeo, R. Lester, B. Staker
C: A. Raines. S. Black, J. Polkinghorne
HF: R. Bewick, J. Brown, P. Hanley
F: D. Zorko, J. Lisle, T. Rockliff
Foll: M. Leuenberger, B. Moloney, J. Redden
Int: J. Green, S. Mayes, M. Golby, S. Michael
Emg: S. Docherty, T. Banfield, P. Karnezis

IN: Sam Michael, Josh Green
OUT: Merrett (Suspended), Clarke (suspended)

TIP

The odds for this game have changed significantly over the past few days as it became clear that the Lions would be missing another three key players for this round. Collingwood for once had no bad news leading into selection in fact they have the luxury of bringing back a premiership star in Heath Shaw who will no doubt tip the ledger in the Pies favour, even if there have been questions about his fitness and work rate recently.

Ultimately it seems as if the Lions have reached a tipping point where they simply have run out of players to be a competitive unit and while the Magpies may be struggling to find form they are yet to drop a game to a side outside the eight and I expect that trend to continue this week, although I expect the final margin to be closer than most are tipping.

PIES BY 19.