Collingwood are in trouble, there’s no other way of putting it as the Magpies enter into the last 6 games of the 2013 home and away season. Last week up on the Gold Coast the Pies were expected to defeat the upstart Suns yet from early on nothing went to plan. The Magpies use of the ball was atrocious really, whether it be kicking for goal or turning the ball over in open play. Eventually, despite a comeback in the last quarter, the Suns won the game by 7 points, a defeat that left the Pies hanging on to a spot in the eight, and all but ended any slight hope of a top four or premiership for season 2013. This weekend the Pies will get what they need, a win and a percentage booster as they face off the second year Greater Western Sydney Giants. It will be a false sign of hope though for the Magpie army as playing GWS really doesn’t give you any clue as to how your team is travelling, whether they win by 80 or 150 points as some teams have done. That’s not to say that GWS are a waste of time or anything, they are in a similar position to the one the Suns were in this time last year, and we’ve all seen the way they’ve become very competitive in such s short time. The Giants senior coach Kevin Sheedy hates the Magpies with a passion and will attempt to embarrass the Pies, at least for a while on Saturday afternoon.
PREVIOUS FORM
The Giants almost had their first win of the year against the Dogs.
Coming in to the 2013 season no one expected the Giants to climb off the bottom of the ladder, but it must be of some disappointment to those at the club that after 16 games they are still yet to notch up a win. Some of their recent performances have been better though with a narrow loss to the Western Bulldogs and a very competitive effort against the rampaging Bombers last week. The loss to the Dogs was a promising sign, but at the same time must have been heart breaking as the Giants fell just 4 points short of their first win of the season. Last Saturday the Giants also took it up to Essendon for large periods, before the Bombers ran away with a 39 point win. These are promising signs indeed for a club that wants to be a power of the AFL within 3 seasons, but they still need to win a few games this year to show they are on the right track.
The loss for the Magpies against the Suns was devastating really, especially as it was starting to look like the Pies were finding form after two strong wins over Carlton and Adelaide. Collingwood started well but kicking 2 goals and 7 behinds in the first quarter really hurt their chances of winning. The Suns to their credit capitalised on these errors and built a handy lead going into the final quarter. The Pies got the margin back within a goal but never got closer as the Ablett led Suns pulled off their most famous victory. Collingwood’s form now looks pretty ordinary for a team that had premiership hopes leading into the season.
COLLINGWOOD PREVIEW
It’s been a frustrating season for everyone involved with Collingwood as injuries and form slumps have seen them never really reach the heights that were expected. Last week’s loss to the Suns was probably the low point of the season so far. The club has to move forward though and will do so first with a win over the Giants, but more importantly by planning for a tough three week stretch against the Bombers, Swans and Hawks following this game. To plan for that the Pies will have to manage their players this weekend, meaning that anyone with any injury complaint or slight niggle won’t play, meaning some youngsters may get their first opportunity. The two obvious inclusions are Jarryd Blair and Nathan Brown who missed the Suns loss with minor injuries and they will be welcomed back with open arms if fit and ready to play.
Another player Collingwood will want to return this week is Harry O’Brien, who was in great form before an argument with senior coach Nathan Buckley saw O’Brien voluntary take a few weeks off. He is back and training with the club but may return through the VFL this weekend. Outside of those senior players, and others like Didak, Lynch, Clarke, Martin and Russell who played in the VFL last weekend, the Pies may look to youth this week against the young GWS outfit. Brodie Grundy, Ben Kennedy and Jackson Ramsay all starred in the reserves last week and any or all of the three could play against the Giants. It’s Grundy though that has created the most buzz around the place, as the 202cm giant has performed some amazing feats for a man his size over the past few weeks. Grundy is a massive part of the future of Collingwood and plenty of fans are hoping they get a glimpse of him at senior level before the year is out.
The Pies are in trouble though, and it’s obvious something has to change if they are to do any damage over the coming month and once the finals roll around. The forward line is still too reliant on Cloke and Elliott and the backline is leaking goals unlike it has for the past few years, meaning that the “wonder cure” of moving Reid up forward may not be possible until the backline is strengthened significantly. Whatever changes the Pies make this week, it will surely be with one eye on next week’s game against Essendon because it will be then that these Magpies get a chance to redeem themselves for last week’s loss to the Suns. This weekend is more about getting through with no new injuries while maybe trying a few new things, or players.
OPPOSITION ANALYSIS
The Giants entered 2013 fully knowing, and accepting, that this would be another tough year for the expansion club after only achieving two wins in their maiden season in the AFL. But few would have thought that after 16 games (17 rounds) the Giants would still be win less in 2013. It’s not a dissimilar situation to the Gold Coast Suns in 2012 though who hadn’t won a game after 14 attempts in their second season. The Suns however went on to win 3 of their last 8 games and now have taken that one step further and notched up 6 wins already this season. The Giants will for a long time be compared to the Suns previous seasons achievements and this year they need to notch up a win or two on the run home or risk being called a problem child of the AFL. There’s little doubting the Giants have some of the best young talent on their list, and it shows on every line of their team.
If the Giants have a strength at the moment it has to be their midfield. They sit 5th for centre clearances in 2013 which is a staggering statistic for a side that is so young and still in development. The problem it seems for the Giants is once those stoppages are over they are dominated in the midfield spread by just about every other team. In that midfield though GWS has some names of the future with the likes of Coniglio (injured at the moment), Shiel, Treloar, Whitfield, Adams, Hoskin-Elliott and the experienced pair of Callan Ward and Tom Scully you can see why the Giants midfield is able to be competitive most weeks, even if the scoreboard doesn’t show that. It was the main reason why they almost defeated the Bulldogs a few weeks ago and also took it up to the Bombers without Jobe Watson to dominate against them. This week the Giants midfield will face a real tough test though up against a stacked Magpies central core that even last week dominated in stages despite the poor result. In the ruck we may get the chance to see two of the young guns of the AFL go head to head with Tom Downie a chance to make his debut in the same game that Collingwood’s youngster Brodie Grundy may make his first senior appearance also. Both have been dominating at the reserves level and it would be a glimpse of the future indeed if this match up was to occur.
Jeremy Cameron is already a star at senior level.
The GWS forward line has the long term potential to be the best in the AFL, with Jeremy Cameron, Adam Tomlinson and Jonathan Patton all man mountains who play football the modern way. Of course Patton is out for the year but he should return next year and assist a forward line that may also have either/both of Lance Franklin and Tom Boyd in it, and that’s just a scary though indeed. At the moment though Cameron is the man, the one that is consistent on a week to week basis already, as shown by his season tally of 43 which has him in the Coleman medal race. After that the goals drop off significantly though with Setanta O’hAilpan the next best on 13 goals. Apart from Devon Smith who has spent some time up forward and kicked 11 goals this season, it’s clear to see that small forwards and midfield assistance is a major problem for the Giants up forward. Of course this forward line doesn’t get the opportunities that most others do but it’s return is still down on what the club would have expected, although the loss of Patton has to be a major reason for that. This week the Giants will match up with a Pies defense that has been struggling, allowing teams to score far too easily on the counter attack for most of the season. The Giants, not unlike the Suns will try and exploit this weakness to keep the game as close as possible, for as long as possible.
Where over the rest of the ground the Giants lack experience when it comes to their backline this isn’t entirely so with co captain Phil Davis and ex Hawk Stephen Gilham leading a defense that has been under more pressure than maybe any team in the history of the game. Assisting them in the key position area is the young Tim Mohr who is developing into one of the best young defenders in the AFL. The Giants get belted most weeks in the inside forward 50 comparison and that places a massive amount of pressure on this defense, yet under the circumstances at times it has held up well. The three tall defenders are able assisted by youngsters such as Hampton, Darley, Bugg, Haynes, Kennedy and Corr and it’s this young depth that will build this backline into something special in times to come. This week they face a Pies forward line that is dysfunctional to say the least, it simply isn’t working and hasn’t worked to anywhere near an efficient beast so far this season. Travis Cloke, not unlike Jeremy Cameron at the other end is the stand out forward and it will be interesting to see which of the three Giants tall defenders start on Cloke on Saturday.
The GWS Giants may well go through the 2013 season without a win, in fact with six rounds remaining it seems that the most they could chalk up is one win. Yet when you assess their list you can see why many good judges in the AFL are afraid of just how powerful this team will become over time. They have played 43 different players this year and there is sure to be another massive turnover of players at years’ end but if they can add some experience from other clubs they will improve remarkably next season. If you are being honest though the majority of their improvement will come from within their young playing ranks and this weekend it’s the Magpies fans turn to get a small glimpse into the future of this competition, coming only a week after seeing, and being defeated by the other future power, the Suns. The Giants won’t win this week, but it’s not all about winning for them at the moment it’s all about developing their youngsters and giving them as much exposure to AFL senior football as possible.
TEAMS
Collingwood v Greater Western Sydney
Round 18
Saturday 27 July
MCG, 4.40pm
Collingwood
B: Nathan Brown, Nick Maxwell, Ben Reid
HB: Harry O’Brien, Heath Shaw, Marley Williams
C: Steele Sidebottom, Brent Macaffer, Luke Ball
HF: Jamie Elliott, Brodie Grundy, Dane Swan
F: Dayne Beams, Travis Cloke, Josh Thomas
Foll: Jarrod Witts, Scott Pendlebury, Jarryd Blair
Int: Tyson Goldsack, Lachlan Keeffe, Ben Sinclair, Sam Dwyer
Emg: Ben Kennedy, Kyle Martin, Caolan Mooney
IN: Jarryd Blair, Nathan Brown, Brodie Grundy, Harry O’Brien
OUT: Ben Hudson (calf), Paul Seedsman (calf), Andrew Krakouer, Caolan Mooney (omitted)
NEW: Brodie Grundy (19, Unley/Sturt)
GWS GIANTS
B: Joshua Bruce, Tim Mohr, Curtly Hampton
HB: Nicholas Haynes, Phil Davis, Callan Ward
C: Tom Scully, Thomas Bugg, Will Hoskin-Elliott
HF: Jeremy Cameron, Adam Tomlinson, Mark Whiley
F: Devon Smith, Dean Brogan, Zachary Williams
Foll; Jonathan Giles, Adam Treloar, Dylan Shiel
Int; Taylor Adams, Toby Greene, Sam Darley, Adam Kennedy
Emg; Stephen Gilham, Lachie Whitfield, Liam Sumner
TIP.
Brodie Grundy is in line to make his senior debut this week.
Collingwood will win this game, there is no doubt about that, so the interest then becomes how much of a nuisance can the Giants be to a Magpies outfit that needs a confidence boosting win before they head into 3 very tough games. The absence of Patton and Coniglio does make the Giants a little weaker but it has also given them the chance to expose even more youngsters to positions that they may not have played in other wise.
The Magpies will rest anyone who is sore at all, with Ben Hudson an almost certain out meaning that the Magpie army might get to see the future ruck combination of Witts and Grundy together for the first time. That’s really what this game is about too, both teams still trying out new things in an effort to reach their full potential, even if that potential may not come to fruition this season.
The Magpies will win, although I think the Giants will hang around and take it up to the Magpies at times during the game.
PIES BY 65 POINTS.
SportsMatt 